Blizzard and Extreme Cold in Montana, January 1 to 3, 2022

Name: Blizzard and Extreme Cold in Montana, January 1 to 3, 2022
Start: 2022-01-01T01:53
End: 2022-01-03T14:57
Location: Montana

January 1 to 3, 2022 · NWS TFX · 13 events in 11 counties and zones

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 13

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

The new year began with an Arctic Air mass over the region, powered by a 1028 mb surface high. Temperatures plunged below zero as northerly winds were just strong enough to produce dangerous wind chills down to 40 below zero along the Hi-Line. Milder westerly flow quickly replaced this air mass and brought strong gusty surface winds to much of north-central MT. Temperatures along the Rocky Mountain Front remained below freezing, resulting in widespread ground blizzard conditions over the East Glacier and Browning areas. The strong surface winds were mostly over the plains resulting from 50kt+ 700 mb westerly flow, but there was a brief period of strong southwesterly flow over the southwest that brought criteria magnitudes to Madison County. Another surge of Arctic air moved into the region again after the high winds subsided.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 10:42 PM MST, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 10:42 PM MST, 3 hours 11 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1042 PM MST Fri Dec 31 2021

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic airmass with bitterly cold wind chills will remain over
the region through Saturday morning. Southwest winds increase and
bring warming temperatures this weekend, but blowing and drifting
snow will be possible as temperatures remain near and below
freezing. More Arctic air and additional chances for snow is
forecast to return early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

No major changes were made to the previous forecast this evening,
though hourly temperatures were tweaked a bit. Overnight
temperatures will be largely dependent on cloud cover and winds
through the overnight, as winds should eventually begin to bring
warmer air to the surface for portions of North-Central Montana.
Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
1042 PM MST Fri Dec 31 2021 (00/06Z TAF period)

General VFR conditions prevail as upper level ridging moves over the
Northern Rockies. However, A few patchy low VFR clouds will be
possible during the overnight hours. Southwesterly winds increase
around 01/09Z, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains.
Some areas of blowing snow can be expected for KCTB and KGTF on
Saturday and low level wind shear may become more common toward the
end of the period. -RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 PM MST Fri Dec 31 2021/

Tonight through Saturday...

Final shortwave disturbance rotating through the upper level trough
across the region will move off to the SE this evening before the
upper trough axis shifts east of the area overnight. At the surface,
cold high pressure and Arctic airmass centered across southern AB/SK
today slides southeast across eastern MT into the Dakotas by
Saturday morning. Just a few lingering light snow showers/flurries
through the rest of this afternoon across far SW MT with clouds
decreasing from NW to SE across the area through the rest of this
afternoon and evening. Main weather impacts through tonight will be
related to the cold with temperatures already in the single digits
above/below zero across the entire area falling to single digits and
teens below zero this evening and as low as 20 below to 30 below
zero across much of north-central MT overnight. Wind Chill
advisories have been expanded across SW MT where northerly winds
of 10-15 mph through valleys and passes will create wind chills
around 20 below zero through early this evening before winds
diminish tonight. Further north, lighter winds but colder
temps/wind chills are on track for tonight with coldest readings
expected along the Hi-line. As the upper trough and surface high
move off to the east later tonight, lee-side surface troughing
develops along the east slopes of the Rockies and deepens though
the day Saturday. Southwest winds along the east slopes will bring
some warming to these areas late tonight with these winds
spreading east across the plains through the day Saturday and
warming temperatures into the teens (above zero) by Saturday
afternoon for most areas. Gusty winds along the east slopes and
adjacent plains areas increase through the day Saturday with
potential for blowing/drifting snow impacts and a winter weather
advisory has been issued to highlight this for areas from Glacier
county south along the Rocky Mtn Front and east across Cascade and
Judith Basin counties. These winds could also bring some blowing
and drifting snow to southern portions of Lewis and Clark county
including Sieben Flats and MacDonald Pass, though little wind is
expected in the Helena Valley. Snow depth across the plains is
generally less than 3 inches so there is some uncertainty with the
extent and duration of any blowing/drifting snow impacts. Hoenisch

Saturday night through Monday...High temperatures across the
region will steadily warm throughout the period, with the warmest
days of Sunday and Monday peaking in the upper 20s to mid-30s at
most locations. Colder air trapped in the 'wind protected'
southwest valleys may result in highs running slightly cooler than
guidance for these locations, especially for Saturday and Sunday.
However, kept the NBM numbers due to overall lower confidence
with stronger winds aloft. Increased surface winds still appear to
be the biggest impact of the period for north-central and
portions of southwest MT. Both probabilistic and deterministic
models  indicate the potential for strong winds over the Rocky
Mountain Front and eastern Glacier county Saturday night into
Sunday. Given the 90 percent chance for 48 kt + wind gusts at Cut
Bank and 60 percent chance for 64 kt + gusts along the Rocky
Mountain Front late Saturday through Sunday, a High Wind Watch was
issued for these zones. Windy conditions persist into Monday but
look to remain well below criteria at this time.

Monday night trough next Friday...A cold front brings an initial
push of Arctic air to the plains and areawide light snow Monday
night. The cold air will likely become well established over the
entire region by mid-week, with slow moderation thereafter. This
will likely result in more wind chill highlights and possibly
winter weather highlights due to periods of accumulating snow.
-RCG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF -20  18  12  32 /   0   0   0   0
CTB -23  17   9  30 /   0   0   0   0
HLN -18  14   6  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN -20  12   0  27 /   0   0   0   0
WYS -21   7  -8  16 /  10   0   0   0
DLN -12  14   3  23 /   0   0   0   0
HVR -27  12   1  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT -21  17   7  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM MST Sunday
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Judith Basin...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday Beaverhead...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...
Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...Meagher...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday Blaine...Eastern
Glacier...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Event by event

9 high wind, 3 extreme cold/wind chill, 1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Hill

When: January 1, 1:53 AM MST
Where: Hill forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS

KHVR records a -47F wind chill.

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Toole

When: January 1, 5:15 AM MST
Where: Toole forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station at Sunburst records a -41F wind chill.

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Blaine

When: January 1, 11:25 AM MST
Where: Blaine forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS

Chinook AWOS records a -39F wind chill.

High Wind, North Rocky Mountain Front

When: January 1, 1:59 PM MST
Where: North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Measured: 68 kt (78 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Department of Highways

MDT Two Medicine Bridge station measured a 68 kt (78 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Eastern Glacier

When: January 1, 3:23 PM MST
Where: Eastern Glacier forecast zone
Measured: 59 kt (68 mph) measured gust
Reported by: ASOS

KCTB measured a 59 kt (68 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front

When: January 1, 5:15 PM MST
Where: Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Measured: 59 kt (68 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet Dellwo station measured a 59 kt (68 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

Blizzard, North Rocky Mountain Front

When: January 1, 5:53 PM MST to January 2, 9:00 AM MST
Where: North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Reported by: Law Enforcement

Blackfeet Law Enforcement reports widespread ground blizzard conditions over the Browning and East Glacier areas.

High Wind, Toole

When: January 1, 10:00 PM MST
Where: Toole forecast zone
Measured: 57 kt (66 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet Oilmont station measured a 57 kt (66 mph) non-thunderstorm gust.

High Wind, Cascade

When: January 2, 12:15 AM MST
Where: Cascade forecast zone
Measured: 58 kt (67 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station at Cascade measured a 58 kt (67 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Liberty

When: January 2, 12:30 AM MST
Where: Liberty forecast zone
Measured: 55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station at 17 N Joplin measured a 55 kt (63 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Chouteau

When: January 2, 2:15 AM MST
Where: Chouteau forecast zone
Measured: 56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet

Mesonet station 10 S Loma measured a 56 kt (64 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Fergus

When: January 2, 5:02 AM MST
Where: Fergus forecast zone
Measured: 54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS

AWOS KO1M measured a 54 kt (62 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Madison

When: January 3, 2:57 PM MST
Where: Madison forecast zone
Measured: 53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Department of Highways

MDT Norris Hill station measured a 53 kt (61 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

What these are

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill: Temperatures or wind chills at or below the local warning criteria, or cold that caused deaths.
High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Blizzard: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Montana in 2022 Every state in 2022 This day in weather history Warnings in Montana, January 2022

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1002516, 1002518, 1002519, 1002529, 1002531, 1002526, 1002520, 1002676, 1002525, 1002741, 1002521, 1002522, 1002742.