A ridge of high pressure aloft shifted northeast out of the western Bering Sea on December 31, 2021, strengthening over northern Alaska January 1-3, 2022. The development of this ridge, caused an extremely cold air mass over northern Alaska to dive southward across southern Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A ridge of high pressure aloft shifted northeast out of the western Bering Sea on December 31, 2021, strengthening over northern Alaska January 1-3, 2022. The development of this ridge, caused an extremely cold air mass over northern Alaska to dive southward across southern Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska. This is an ideal setup for a Bora wind event over Southcentral Alaska, whereby very cold air is forced over the Alaska Range and southward across Southcentral Alaska, leading to widespread strong and gusty winds and cold temperatures. This set-up allowed several noteworthy details to occur: |1. Very cold air, bottoming out at about -31F to -40F, moved over the Alaska Range and into the Copper River Basin at about 3kft above ground, on January 2nd. Surface temperatures dropped to single digits on the 2nd, and below zero on January 4th.|2. Amplified pressure differentiations developed between the northeast Gulf and northern Alaska. The strengthening surface low over the Gulf dropped to about 972 mb, while an extremely strong surface high topped out around 1052 mb on January 2nd. This created extremely tight pressure gradients between the northern Alaska high and the Gulf low, especially over Southcentral Alaska. This led to the development of strong winds from the northeast over the period, accelerating through the Matanuska Valley.|3. The presence of both thermal and pressure gradients combined to create much stronger winds than would otherwise be observed if standing alone.
While the region hardest hit by this high wind and cold weather event was along the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, many other locations across southcentral were also impacted by frigid temperatures and windy conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 5:47 AM AKST, 3 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 547 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A broad trough with a deep polar low seen on water vapor imagery continues to move south towards the northern Gulf coast. A surge of Arctic air wrapping around the north and west side of this low is spilling across the Alaska state with 850 mb temperatures ranging -20 to -30 degree Celsius. A cold, dry airmass coupled with mostly clear skies and strong radiational cooling is allowing overnight temperatures to drop in the single digits to below zero across the lower and higher elevation regions. As the trough axis shifts over the southern mainland, a combination of colder air advection and strong dynamic support is creating conditions favorable for strong north-northwesterly winds across the coastal areas and interior valleys as well as through the gaps and passes. Meanwhile, an upper level wave is moving into Southcentral, bringing patchy light snow from the Mat-Su Valleys to Anchorage Bowl and to the southern Kenai Peninsula. Another upper level wave with an associated surface low is tracking near Yakutat with a band of clouds and snow showers moving into Prince William Sound to the southeast Panhandle. Out west, a ridge of high pressure is centered over the central Bering Sea and Aleutians. A shortwave trough with a surface low moving upstream of the ridge is bringing gale to storm force winds and rain west of Amchitka. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The latest operational model runs are in good agreement with the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features at both the surface and in the upper levels. Current forecast package is on track with the Arctic outbreak getting underway over southern Alaska. This will lead to gusty northerly winds for the bays and passes, heavy freezing spray, as well as cold wind chills. Some details are still being ironed out as far as the strength of gap winds and frigid cold temperatures. Otherwise, forecast confidence remains high. && .AVIATION... PANC...Patchy light snow will continue for a brief time, bringing MVFR reductions to ceiling and visibility at the terminal. By early this afternoon, VFR conditions will persist through Sunday as cold air advection and gusty northerly winds move into the area. There is high confidence of winds to reach at least 35 kt today with a potential of gusts to reach as high as 45 to 55 kt on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Strong winds and/or very cold temperatures will be the story for Southcentral Alaska through Sunday. The cold air is beginning to move into the region from the north and Northwest this morning. Temperatures will drop throughout the day in many areas due to the cold air advection being stronger than minimal heating from the sun. The most difficult part of the forecast is figuring out the low temperatures in conjunction with the winds. Inversions will be prevented from developing due to the mixing of the low levels of the atmosphere. This will keep the bitterly cold temperatures from developing as they typically do in areas such as the Copper River Basin, but the extreme cold aloft will still bring temperatures well below zero with the wind blowing. Wind chills will be very noticeable for all who are outside. Worst areas are expected to be in the northern Susitna Valley, the Copper River Basin and through Thompson pass. All of these areas have active Wind chill advisories for chills of 40 below zero or colder. With 850 mb temperatures over the Copper River Basin dropping to -30C and colder, this will create an additional thermal component for the winds through the Matanuska Valley this afternoon through SUnday as the cold, dense air accelerates through the channeled terrain along the Matanuska River valley. This is expected to bring winds to High Wind Warning levels of 75 mph for the Matanuska Valley this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. There is also the potential for winds to gust to 60 mph in north and west Anchorage Sunday so a high wind watch is still in effect for Anchorage. Widespread heavy freezing spray will continue in most of the coastal marine areas. Te worst region will be from lower Cook Inlet through Shelikof Strait and to the Shumagin Islands. Parts of this region will likely see not only heavy freezing spray, but extreme rates of freezing spray with potential for 2 to 4 inches per hour of ice accumulation in the strongest core of the winds. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... An extremely cold, Arctic air mass is making headway well into the Southwest this morning as skies clear and as temperatures crash down into the single digits to teens below 0F across the entire region. A deep longwave trough extending over the AK interior into the northern Gulf is contrasting with a sharp ridge over the Bering to create a very tightened east to west pressure gradient across the area. This coupled with continued cold air advection and strong synoptic flow from the north is supporting gusty winds across portions of the Middle Valley and down across Bristol Bay, causing localized areas of blowing snow at times. With little change in the supporting upper level pattern expected, winds gusting occasionally as high as 30 to 50 mph will remain possible for areas including King Salmon, Iliamna and New Stuyahok through at least Sunday night as very strong northerly winds sitting just above the surface periodically mix down to ground level. These winds will tend to keep the boundary layer mixed and prevent temperatures from dropping much below -10 to -20F for interior locations. However, winds coupled with these temperatures will be enough to cause bitterly cold wind chills approaching dangerous territory at times down to as low as -45F, particularly between the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay where Wind Chill Advisories are now in effect for both areas starting later this evening. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... An increasingly blocked upper level pattern will set up over the forecast area as a deep upper trough remains anchored over the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest with an omega block ridge forming over the Bering. The most impactful weather will be centered on the western and eastern side of the ridge for the next couple days, with rather dramatically contrasting air masses between the upstream and downstream portion of the ridging aloft. On the cold side and near the upper level trough, very strong, deep northerly flow coupled with Arctic air advecting south will support extremely strong winds along the Alaska Peninsula increasing today and lasting through much of Sunday, with Hurricane force gusts as high as 80 kt possible out of bays and passes through Sunday morning. These winds will weaken as upper level flow veers from northerly to northeasterly, but will remain gale force with gusts to storm force along the Alaska Peninsula through late Sunday night. The winds coupled with cold temperatures dropping into the teens will result in areas of very heavy freezing spray, with the highest rates of accretion occurring with the core of highest winds lasting through Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a much warmer frontal system will stall across the far western Bering as it runs up against the blocking ridge of high pressure. Steady rain and southeast winds between gale and storm force will follow along and ahead of the front across the western Aleutians, with most of the rain staying west of Adak through late Sunday night. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)... Bering...Along the southwestern edge of high pressure in the Bering Strait on Monday, a widespread swath of easterly gales blows across the central and western Bering/Aleutians before diminishing Monday night. Seas approach 30 ft accompanying the strong gales on Monday, but subside to near 20 ft by Tuesday afternoon. A smaller area of northeasterly gales near the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay on Monday shift into the northern Bering by Tuesday morning and then diminish. Gale force gap winds south of the Alaska Peninsula also diminish Monday night. Tuesday afternoon a broad trough with embedded lows over the North Pacific induces another round of easterly gales from Bristol Bay into the central Bering through Wednesday. By Wednesday morning, seas begin to build to 20 ft in the central Bering. Gulf of Alaska...The strong gap winds expected Saturday and Sunday begin to diminish by Monday, with localized areas of gales continuing to linger beyond Monday afternoon, particularly near Kamishak Bay and Shelikof Strait as low pressure exits into the North Pacific. A front moves north into the Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, allowing widespread easterly gales to develop in the southern Gulf. Gale force winds may also develop through the Barren Islands and southern Cook Inlet and persist through Wednesday. Seas build to near 20 ft by Wednesday morning in the far southern Gulf. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Tuesday through Friday)... Tuesday marks the beginning of a pattern shift as there is general model consensus that a strong amplified upper level ridge sitting over the Bering this weekend shifts northward into the Chukchi Sea. A large closed upper low to the east of the ridge, over the western Gulf of Alaska, begins to pinch off the ridge on Tuesday, retrograding along its southern periphery into and across the Bering. Ahead of the low, a blast of cold, Arctic air, previously sitting over the Alaska mainland, is pushed across the Bering, creating widespread snow showers and the potential for freezing spray, especially near the Southwest coast. Various surface lows look to move northward from the North Pacific and push a broad front across the southern Gulf, AKPEN, and the Aleutians, leading to a return of warmer, wetter conditions there by Wednesday. The bulk of the warm, moist air looks to remain confined there as the strong ridge to the north keeps the front stalled out, leaving Southwest and Southcentral Alaska colder and drier. Weak warm advection on the back side of the upper low nonetheless allows a bit of a warm-up and lighter winds over the Alaska mainland through the week. Both GFS and the EC indicate that by Thursday stronger upper- level ridging extends further south over mainland Alaska, likely keeping the area clear and dry. GEM, despite a further west placement of the strong upper-level anticyclone also indicates the same general northwest to southeast ridge axis, which is more prone to draw surface lows northward into the Bering. Both GFS and GEM indicate the potential for a surface low to draw warm, moist air deeper into the Bering and possibly into Southwest Alaska by the end of the week. In this setup, temperatures may warm to near or above freezing across parts of Southwest late Friday. .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory: 131 141 145 152 161 High Wind Warning: 111 High Wind Watch: 101 MARINE...Hurricane Warning: 130 150 Storm Warning: 127 131 132 136 138 139 155 177 178 411 Gale Warning: 119-121 125 126 128 129 137 140 141 160 165 172 175 176 180 351 352 412-414 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 119-121 125-132 136-139 141 150 155 160 165 180 181 185 414 FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS MARINE/LONG TERM...CQ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK 840 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022 AKZ171-021500- Kodiak Island- Including the city of Kodiak City 840 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022 ...RESUSPENDED ASH FROM KATMAI-NOVARUPTA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... Strong northwesterly winds gusting 65 to 85 mph across the Alaska Peninsula are resuspending ash created from the 1912 Katmai eruption. The ash is being transported across Shelikof Strait to Kodiak Island. Strong gusty winds across Kodiak Island of 45 to 65 mph could help mix some of this ash down to the surface. Those communities most likely to be impacted include karluk, Larsen Bay, and Akhiok. Those in sensitive groups and with respiratory ailments should avoid or significantly reduce time outdoors to reduce the amount of ash inhaled. Winds will gradually diminish Sunday through Sunday night and become more northerly in direction. This should bring an end to the threat of resuspended ash reaching Kodiak Island by Sunday evening.
2 high wind, 1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme whiteout conditions were reported by DOT on the Richardson Hwy from MP 180 to MP 210, especially near Summit Lake. This was due to the strong winds lifting snow off the ground and creating ground blizzard conditions.
Of significance was the longevity and extremes recorded during the event. First, the strongest winds recorded were at the Palmer Airport with a peak wind gust of 88 mph at 5:36 PM January 2nd, and a gust to 91 mph at the Glenn-Parks Highway Interchange at about the same time. This rivals the strongest gusts reached at the Palmer Airport since recording began in 1972, becoming the 5th strongest wind gust recorded at the Palmer Airport, though the four strongest gusts only occurred over two separate days, December 23, 1996 and January 17, 2005, ranging between 90 and 112 mph (see graph below). The Wasilla Airport peaked at 74 mph on January 2nd at 10:16 PM.
Second, the longevity of the event was pronounced. Not only was there about 40 hours of hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater) noted at the Palmer Airport, but there were about 51 hours of wind gusts 50 mph or greater between January 1st and 3rd. Taking a regional perspective and including Anchorage in the picture, this Bora Wind event ranks 5th for longevity since records began, though is likely the strongest wind event associated with a Bora Windstorm for Palmer on record.
The final aspect of note was the extreme cold associated with the event and longevity to which the cold lingered. While temperatures dropped into the single digits by January 2nd, temperatures dropped below zero January 4th and remained frigid through January 7th, before increasing back into the teens. This proved to be quite impactful as winds took down many power lines, causing difficulties for many in the extreme cold and causing pipes and water mains to break.
We received reports of blown-over trucks, toppled Cessna airplanes at the Palmer Airport, downed trees and power lines (with power outages across the valley causing pipes to burst and people to seek shelter elsewhere due to the prolonged cold), windows broken, cars damaged due to flying debris, and siding ripped off homes and businesses. Emergency Management reported multiple CO poisoning calls, requests to be transported to the hospital, along with cases of frostbite.
Links to news coverage: https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/mat-su/2022/01/03/in-pictures-windstorm-batters-palmer-and-wasilla/, https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2022/01/02/thousands-without-power-as-heavy-winds-hit-southcentral-alaska/, https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2022/01/01/power-outages-occurring-across-southcentral/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=ktuu, and https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2022/01/02/strong-winds-affecting-power-travel-mat-su/?fbclid=IwAR1IQvdqJGGfv0jw85F0FUqprDwQefUzrp9dN3H_O8AelpHyu7S8mv3q4qY.
The Executive Weather Summary can be found here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1oYQb2EPRyj5bM-rkA56RKFD-nsjs5EHs96BE24bpyMo/edit?usp=sharing.
Strong winds, peaking at 61 mph, led to power outages in the Campbell/Taku area of Anchorage with over 800 people briefly without power. Link to a news article covering the wind event: https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2022/01/02/strong-winds-affecting-power-travel-mat-su/?fbclid=IwAR1IQvdqJGGfv0jw85F0FUqprDwQefUzrp9dN3H_O8AelpHyu7S8mv3q4qY.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1018096, 1018094, 1018097.