The second warmest December on record for Eastern Kentucky finished with a warm and moist air mass in place on New Year's Eve. A developing warm front slowly lifted northward out of the Tennessee Valley during the early morning hours on New Year's Day 2022 and stalled near the the Hal Rogers/Highway 80 corridor.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
The second warmest December on record for Eastern Kentucky finished with a warm and moist air mass in place on New Year's Eve. A developing warm front slowly lifted northward out of the Tennessee Valley during the early morning hours on New Year's Day 2022 and stalled near the the Hal Rogers/Highway 80 corridor. The combination of strong lifting and near record atmospheric moisture levels for this time of year led to a line of training showers and thunderstorms, some with frequent lightning and intense downpours. The heaviest rainfall occurred from about 4 to 8 AM and led to many instances of flash flooding from Rockcastle County east northeast through Jackson, Owsley, Breathitt, Floyd, and Pike counties. By midday, locations affected by this activity had received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall.
A temporary lull in the showers followed as the front shifted further to the north during the late morning and early afternoon. This allowed temperatures to surge into the 60s across the northeast Kentucky and into the lower to middle 70s closer the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
Strong to severe thunderstorms developed in a high shear, low instability environment during the afternoon as a cold front swept from northwest to southeast across the area. While these storms mainly produced damaging wind gusts, one storm produced a brief spin-up tornado in far northwest Estill County. Impacts did not end with the passage of the cold front though; the excessive rainfall from earlier in the day quickly found its way into the mainstem rivers, sending multiple locations along the Kentucky and Red Rivers into flood stage. The most significant river flooding of the event Moderate flood was attained along the Kentucky River at Ravenna, the Red River at Clay City, and the South Fork Kentucky River at Booneville. A few other locations surpassed Minor flood stage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 10:24 PM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1024 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021 Overall no major changes to the forecast. Starting to see some embedded thunderstorms over central KY. Forecast soundings show a shallow inversion near the surface right now which will cap any severe threat for a few hours, but eventually that cap will erode and any stronger cells overnight will have the ability to bring those stronger winds down to the surface. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021 Only minor tweaks to the grids with this update. With the CAM's still not in full agreement, didn't mess with Pops for later this evening, and will watch and see how convection develops to our west over the coming hours. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 559 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021 The latest upper level map features a seasonably strong subtropical ridge centered across western Cuba. Meanwhile, deep troughing is centered from Hudson Bay down through the northern Great Basin and then southward through Baja California. Fast west southwest flow is found in between these aforementioned features, aligning from the eastern Pacific through the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a stationary frontal boundary is positioned from New England through the Ohio Valley and across the middle Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and through the central Rockies. Broad low pressure is found from the Midwest through the southern Plains, before congealing into a more concentrated center near the front range in southeastern Colorado. A secondary warm front is analyzed from the Deep South through the lower Mississippi Valley. Yet another pre-frontal surface trough/warm front associated with an advancing low level jet nose is moving northward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have been persistent with this boundary as it crossed eastern Kentucky today, with the consolidated activity having now exited northeastern Kentucky. Highs today have ranged from the low to mid 60s. The western trough will gradually advance eastward through the period, maintaining a positive tilt. An embedded more intense short wave trough, currently rotating across southern Arizona, will become absorbed into the flow as it cruises east northeast through the middle Mississippi Valley and eventually into the Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday. This will escort anomalously high PWATs into an axis from the Arklatex region through the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will tighten up across the Ohio Valley, with traversing areas of low pressure advancing along the boundary as it very gradually shifts southeast towards the Appalachians late in the period, bringing heavy rainfall to eastern Kentucky. On top of the heavy rains, there is also a potential for severe weather from near I-75 and westward late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. A mostly quiet evening is expected across eastern Kentucky to begin the period; however, as deeper moisture advects in ahead of an advancing warm front to our south, showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected. While an embedded stronger thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out, any more organized threat looks to remain to our southwest. The CAMs have also been showing the potential for some convective training across the Tennessee/Kentucky border as the boundary slows/stalls for a while during the pre-dawn hours and into daybreak Saturday. The synoptic models are less supportive of this idea, maintaining a more progressive boundary, and quite a bit less rainfall across our south. Given the increased CAM support and pretty consistent signal from many HRRR runs following the 12z run from this morning, have allowed for the slower frontal progression idea. Given this potential, as well as the main slug of moisture to move through later Saturday evening, have added the rest of the counties into a Flood Watch. Overall, the heaviest rainfall totals continue to be around the I-64 corridor, with upwards of 3 inches, as the baroclinic zone stalls the longest towards the Bluegrass, coincident with the longer residence time of the very high PWATs that will be in place. Depending upon upstream convective trends, a more organized severe threat may also unfold late in the day Saturday, as bowing segments organize upstream and attempt to hold together as they advance towards the I-75 corridor. This will be a high shear/low CAPE environment, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, but isolated QLCS tornadoes can not be ruled out, given the favorable low level shear in place. Outside the thunderstorms, southwest winds will become breezy southeast of the heavier rain axis, with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, especially if some of thicker clouds relent in the wake of the boundary setting up further to the north. The rains will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast Saturday night, with winds veering more towards the west closer to dawn Sunday morning. Temperatures will continue to average way above normal into 2022, with lows tonight ranging from 55 to 60 degrees, and highs ranging from the mid 60s north of I-64, to the lower 70s across southeastern Kentucky for New Year's Day. Temperatures will then drop off late Saturday night behind the departing cold front, ranging from the low to mid 40s across our far northwest, to the mid 50s across the far southeast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 422 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021 Models appear to be handling the larger scale synoptic pattern well this cycle and are showing fairly good agreement through the extended. However, as would be expected, there are differences in the details of surface features which will have an impact on sensible weather. Aloft, a significant trough will pass from the Great Plains across the Deep South Sunday through Monday, causing a wave of surface low pressure to develop on the tail end of a frontal boundary that will be pushing through the Piedmont. This low will pass through the Southern Appalachians as colder air is pouring into eastern Kentucky behind an exiting storm system. Evolution and timing of events suggest there will be a transition from light rain, or possibly drizzle to snow late Sunday or Sunday evening into Monday morning. After an extended period of temperatures running well above normal, ground temperatures will hardly be cold enough to support more significant accumulations, especially at the lower elevations. With respect to accumulations, current thinking is that the bulk of any snow to be realized mainly on grassy areas. Roads should remain in good shape though some bridges and overpasses could develop some slick spots, but it is still a bit early to know full impacts if any...stay tuned. Shortwave energy will pass through the Midwest by Wednesday, but moisture will be lacking for this mid/upper level disturbance. Consequently, at this time, little if any impacts are expected other than some isolated rain showers. A more significant trough will dig into central and eastern portions of the CONUS behind this disturbance, bringing a better chance of precipitation to the area for the latter portion of the upcoming work week. At this time, indications are that a surface low will pass northeast through the Tenn Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Current solutions have this surface low passing just to our northwest, close enough that colder air will be drawn into the area quick enough to convert any lingering precipitation (wrap around moisture) from rain to snow before ending, providing a second opportunity of some light snow for the week. As is typically the case, the exact track of the surface low (again, currently expected just to our west-northwest) will determine our sensible weather with respect to potential snow totals. Also, a relatively warm ground again will act to reduce overall accumulations, if any. Storm tracks are so important in the winter that we can be guaranteed that the forecast will change between now and the end of the extended. Temperatures are expected to average above normal through the period, though they will be much closer to normal or even below normal Monday, and possibly again on Friday. Sunday will likely be our warmest day (mid 50s to around 60), but temperatures will be dropping through the day as colder air pours into the coal fields. Monday will only see highs in the mid 30s, but Friday could wind up being a bit colder with current forecast highs in the low to mid 30s. PoPs will be highest during the period Sunday afternoon and evening (60-90%), but likely PoPs Thu-Fri will probably increase as we get closer to the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021 MVFR ceilings to start the 00Z TAF period. Poor flying conditions expected overnight into Saturday as periods of moderate to heavy rain move into the area. Ceilings will eventually drop to IFR overnight into the early morning hours on Saturday before slowly improving to MVFR throughout the day. Visibilities will also be reduced at times, especially during periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Southerly winds 5-10 kts this evening through early Saturday morning, increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts during the afternoon and early evening on Saturday. Wind shear has been mentioned at SYM/SJS/JKL during the beginning of the TAF period this evening, but winds aloft are expected to decrease around 06Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083-104-106>109-111-112-114. Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ084>088-110-113- 115>120. && UPDATE...CMF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...CMF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 416 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>109-111-112- 114-020030- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe- Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, Jackson, and Booneville 416 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected overnight tonight, along with a possibility of thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through Saturday night, with widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts likely. Isolated higher amounts are possible. Flooding may occur in locations which receive the heaviest rainfall. There is also a potential for thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night, some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy southwest wind gusts up to 35 mph will occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance may be requested tonight through Saturday night. KYZ084>088-110-113-115>120-020030- McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie- Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 416 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible overnight tonight, along with a possibility of thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible Saturday, but are more likely Saturday night, with widespread total rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches forecast. Isolated higher amounts cannot be ruled out. Flooding may occur in locations which receive the heaviest rainfall. There is also a potential for thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night, some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy southwest wind gusts up to 35 mph will occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance may be requested tonight through Saturday night. BB/HAL/GEOGERIAN
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1115 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021
KYZ044-051-052-010500-
Rowan KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-
1115 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Bath,
Fleming and north central Rowan Counties through MIDNIGHT EST...
At 1114 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Muses Mills to near Bethel.
Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Oakley around 1125 PM EST.
Flemingsburg, Poplar Plains and Hillsboro around 1130 PM EST.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Goddard,
Wallingford, Muses Mills and Plummers Landing.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3843 8358 3840 8348 3838 8345 3840 8341
3834 8337 3817 8398 3820 8397 3832 8384
3836 8388 3835 8390 3837 8390 3836 8392
3841 8393 3849 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 262DEG 39KT 3843 8349 3832 8391
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
FISHERSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1156 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021
KYZ044-052-104-010530-
Rowan KY-Elliott KY-Fleming KY-
1156 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Fleming, central Rowan and northwestern Elliott Counties through 1230
AM EST...
At 1156 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hilda, or near Morehead, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Hays Crossing and Munson around 1200 AM EST.
Morehead, Triplett, Cranston, Waltz, Gates, Rodburn and Christy
around 1205 AM EST.
Haldeman and Vale around 1210 AM EST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3830 8333 3821 8330 3821 8329 3820 8327
3821 8322 3824 8322 3825 8318 3827 8318
3823 8312 3822 8309 3815 8358 3832 8364
3839 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 254DEG 40KT 3826 8352
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:00 UTC.
17 heavy rain, 15 flash flood, 10 flood, 8 high wind, 8 thunderstorm wind, 2 debris flow, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
The Kentucky Mesonet station in Jackson County (OLIN) measured 4.86 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
The Kentucky Mesonet station in Knott County (VEST) measured 4.67 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
A CoCoRaHS observer 7 miles SSW of Brodhead measured 4.52 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
The US Army Corps of Engineer's station at Buckhorn Lake recorded 4.31 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
The Kentucky Mesonet station in Owsley County (BNVL) measured 4.29 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
The Kentucky Mesonet station in Pulaski County (DABN) measured 4.19 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
Storm total rainfall of 4.10 inches, falling between 9pm on 12/31/21 and 9am on 1/1/2022.
A CoCoRaHS observer 8 miles W of McKee measured 3.85 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 8am on January 2, 2022.
The cooperative observer in Oneida measured 3.69 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
A CoCoRaHS observer 4 miles NE of Booneville measured 3.60 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 8am on January 2, 2022.
The ASOS station at the NWS Office in Jackson, KY measured 3.55 inches in a 48-hour period ending at 7am January 2, 2022.
The cooperative observer located 4 miles north of Beattyville measured 3.35 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending on January 2, 2022.
The cooperative observer located 3 miles WSW of Prestonsburg measured 3.26 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending on January 2, 2022.
A CoCoRaHS observer 9 miles SE of Campton measured 3.24 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
The Kentucky Mesonet station in Breathitt County (QKSD) measured 3.21 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
The Kentucky Mesonet station in Morgan County (WLBT) measured 3.20 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 7am on January 2, 2022.
The cooperative observer located 2 miles west of Stanton measured 3.14 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period ending at 8am on January 2, 2022.
Reports that water rescues were being performed in the community of Arkansas in central Floyd County.
Water is reported to be in homes in the Belfry Community. Water rescues are about to be performed.
A report came in that water rescues were being performed on Joe Little Fork and Stamper Fork Roads in the community of Canoe.
Water was reported inside homes in the community of Whick.
Emergency Management reported flash flooding in the community of Rockcastle. Ten streets are completely blocked with water; West Street, Chestnut Grove Rd., State Hwy 1505, West and South Main Street, Church Street, Silver Street, Albright Street, Owen Street, and Burton Lane. Eight businesses, 1 church, and an apartment complex are all inundated with water.
KY-319 in the community of Toler is impassable due to flood waters.
Report received via social media of flooding up to homes in the Turners Creek community.
Public reported that there was flooding in the community of Hardshell, with water surrounding homes and people stranded.
Water was reported across Long Branch Road, making it impassable, near the community of Turkey Creek.
Big Creek Fire Department is inundated with water near the community of Sidney.
Reports of flooding in the community of Belfry. Belfry Middle School is inundated with water.
KY-468 was reported impassable due to high water, just north of the community of Sydney.
A report via social media showed Johns Creek Elementary surrounded by water.
A mobile home park was flooded in the community of Zebulon.
Water was reported to be up to the building of Sidney Missionary Baptist Church.
Clay County 911 reported a mudslide along KY-1350 about 5.5 miles up, near the community of Sexton's Creek.
Clay County 911 reported a mudslide onto the Hal Rogers Parkway around mile marker 11 in western Clay County.
Wayne County 911 reported a big tree limb blown down onto Hwy 167 about 2 miles SE of Monticello.
Pulaski County 911 reported multiple trees blown down across Sneed Rd, southwest of the community of Eubank.
A NWS storm survey team found damage that was the result of an|EF-1 tornado with maximum wind speeds estimated at 95 mph.|Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted, a barn was collapsed,|and the roof of an auto repair facility was damaged.
The tornado touched down along Thornburg Bend, where trees were|snapped. A barn was collapsed at a farm off of Harris Perry Road,|and an auto repair facility on Red River Road lost part of its|roof. Multiple downed trees blocked access to the dead end of Red|River Road. The tornado lifted just west of the Red River.
Perry County 911 reported a tree blown down onto power lines along Laurel Street in Hazard. This then snapped a power pole, falling onto a home.
Pulaski County 911 reported trees blown down onto power lines along Stanford Street in Science Hill.
A tree fell on power lines in the town of Frenchburg.
Wayne County 911 reported a tree blown down onto a power line along Hwy 3284 about 0.5 miles off Hwy 92 near Monticello.
Pulaski County 911 reported trees blown down at the intersection of Hwy 27 and East Antioch Avenue in the community of Burnside.
Wayne County 911 reported tree limbs blown down onto power lines along Foster Mountain Road near the community of Cooper.
Trees were reported down along Jones Creek Road in the community of Cottle.
Pulaski County 911 reported a tree down on a live wire along Old Highway 90 near the community of Bronston.
Wayne County 911 reported trees blown down and blocking Tate Drive off of Hwy 3106 in northeast Monticello.
A tree was blown across powerlines along KY-635 West, about 6 miles out of Science Hill.
A tree was reported down along Somerset Road in the community of Bernstadt.
A tree was reported down along River Hill Road near East Bernstadt.
Laurel County 911 reported a tree down along Hwy 312 near Hightop.
Epperson Road is impassable due to flood waters near the community of Woodstock.
Pulaski County 911 reported that 1700 Todd Road is washed out near the community of Woodstock.
East Hwy 635 and Hwy 39 are under water near the community of Dabney.
Etna Road is impassable due to flood waters in the community of Pulaski.
A utility pole was reported down on Knox Street in downtown Barbourville.
KY-594 between mile marker 8 and 10 is closed due to high water just northeast of the community of Jinks.
KY-3328 is closed due to high water near the community of Whitt.
KY-490 is closed between mile markers 0 and 7 due to high water in the Livingston community.
KY-39 is closed between mile markers 0 and 3 due to high water over the road near the community of Livingston.
KY-1329 is closed between mile markers 0 and 5 due to high water southwest of Livingston.
KY-1912 is closed between mile markers 0 and 3 due to high water near the community of Orlando.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kentucky, 2022Warnings in Kentucky, January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1003761, 1003762, 1003763, 1003764, 1003765, 1003766, 1003767, 1003768, 1003769, 1003770, 1004079, 1004080, 1004084, 1004329, 1004331, 1004333, 1004335, 1004346, 1005229, 1004352, 1004586, 1005246, 1005248, 1004587, 1004588, 1004595, 1004603, 1004604, 1004606, 1004610, 1005219, 1005584, 1005323, 1005379, 1005392, 1005415, 1004639, 1005419, 1005423, 1005428, and more.