A mid-level shortwave trough along with an enhanced meso-scale banding of precipitation produced a narrow area of heavy and very wet snow across the Hwy 50 to Hwy 283 corridors seeing 3-5 inches. Less than 2 inches were observed for locations south and west with the biggest impact being with the strong northerly winds restricting visibility to less than a mile in some locations.
Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A mid-level shortwave trough along with an enhanced meso-scale banding of precipitation produced a narrow area of heavy and very wet snow across the Hwy 50 to Hwy 283 corridors seeing 3-5 inches. Less than 2 inches were observed for locations south and west with the biggest impact being with the strong northerly winds restricting visibility to less than a mile in some locations. Wind gusts early in the afternoon measured 60-65 MPH.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 2:41 PM CST, 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 341 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 ...Updated Synopsis... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Intense north winds will continue Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Rain will overspread SW KS late this afternoon, and then change to heavy wet snow this evening. The heaviest snow is expected from near Dodge City to near Hays, where significant accumulations are expected Thursday night. Blizzard conditions are expected, especially in open rural areas tonight. Snow will end sunrise Friday, with beautiful spring weather on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 ...Dangerous Blizzard Conditions Expected Tonight... ...Worst Conditions Near Dodge City to Near Hays... Intense shortwave was over northeast New Mexico at midday per water vapor imagery, with infrared satellite imagery revealing intense forcing for ascent over the eastern panhandles and western Oklahoma. Widespread wind blown rain will overspread SW KS through this afternoon, as the shortwave progresses to the NE Texas panhandle. North winds are already strong, gusting over 40 mph, and will continue to increase late this afternoon and this evening. Wind gusts of 50-60 are expected, especially this evening. While winds will likely reach high wind criteria at times through tonight, plan is to include the wind hazards with the winter hazard products. Cold advection is in progress, and temperatures will respond slowly falling into the 30s by evening. Some thunder is plausible in the southeast zones this afternoon and evening as weak instablity works its way in ahead of incoming shortwave. Tonight will be quite interesting, with dangerous winter driving conditions expected. High confidence of intense deformation zone placement, from roughly near Dodge City to near Hays. Dynamic lift in this deformation zone is forecast to be very intense, producing high QPF and precipitation rates. Obviously, pops are at 100% in these areas. Thermodynamics and resulting phase changes are the wildcards, as they often are in March. 12z NAM/GFS continue to forecast 850 mb temperatures to fall to the -2 to -3C range in the deformation this evening, with 1000-500 thickness easily falling to near 540 dm. Surface temperatures will rapidly cool to the 32-34 range near/after sunset, which is expected to force a phase change to very wet snow and large aggregate flakes. Nocturnal timing will help this process along, and history shows many cases in March where intense dynamics have forced the phase change, especially at night, when thermodynamics were marginal. Much higher confidence on the placement of the worst impacts tonight, from roughly Ford county northeast to roughly Ellis county. Along this axis, used a muted down version of 12z NAM's QPF/snow amounts, with 5-7 inches in the storm total snow grids. It is emphasized that exact snow totals will not be the main impact here; the intensity of visibility retrictions and intense snowfall rates/blowing snow will be the dangers to any motorists tonight. Grids carry widespread 1/4 mile sm visibility, and with winds gusting 50-60 mph, am leaning toward a blizzard warning for this corridor pending neighboring WFOs. WFOs Wichita/Hastings are on board with this thinking after excellent collaboration. Intense snowfall rates will cover even warm/wet roadways quickly, as temperatures fall to near freezing. Travel is not advised from near Dodge City to near Hays tonight. The next several hours will be spent nailing down the exact placement of the worst impacts, as models converge on deformation location. Outside of the core of these impacts, a winter weather advisory will be issued tonight, for similar visibility impacts, but with less snow amounts, roughly 1-3 inches. Nocturnal timing and snow rates will encourage accumulations on at least elevated surfaces, but progressive nature of the system will limit residency time for snow to stick. Snow wraps up quickly across the eastern zones sunrise Friday, as the parent cyclone ejects rapidly northeast through southeast Kansas. Strong subsidence behind the departing shortwave will clear the sky rapidly Friday, with full sunshine by afternoon. Northwest winds will gradually diminish during the day, with afternoon temperatures warming into the 50s. Of course, undercut guidance into the 40s where the deepest wet snowpack is expected. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 ...Widespread Beneficial Precipitation Expected Monday and Tuesday... Spectacular spring weather is expected Saturday, with broad ridging spreading over the Rockies, and weak pressure gradients. Afternoon temperatures in the 60s and light winds will make for one of the most pleasant days of the year. Models maintain continuity showing the ridge axis passing SW KS sunrise Sunday. The next strong shortwave dives into Arizona Sunday afternoon, forcing strong SWly midlevel flow, strong lee trough, and strong south surface winds Sunday afternoon. Increased south wind grids well over NBM per usual. Afternoon temperatures in the 70s Sunday. 12z ECMWF shows good consistency with its previous runs, evolving the SW US shortwave into a large, slow-moving cutoff low, centered near SE New Mexico at 7 pm Monday. This slow movement and positioning is strongly favored to produce widespread rain in SW KS, as the moist conveyor belt spreads in on strong SEly flow. Indeed, all models spread widespread rain, some of it moderate to heavy, into SW KS during Monday. NBM pops are extremely, unusually high for this evolution, already at 90%. They are well warranted and maintained. The slow movement shown of the closed low, only to near Childress by 7 am Tuesday, is critical to allow moisture time to wrap westward onto the high plains. Confidence is high for widespread, meaningful rainfall amounts and some alleviation to the drought. We will need to monitor for another heavy wet snow event Tuesday, as the closed low intensifies over western Oklahoma, and ECMWF drops 850 mb temperatures as cold as -3C in the strong deformation zone encompassing SW KS. NBM initial grids are warmer with mostly rain, with wet snow relegated to the higher western elevations. Winter weather impacts may be significant Tuesday, but have lots of time to monitor. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High confidence flight categories will degrade rapidly this TAF cycle, with general aviation traffic not recommended at DDC/HYS 00-09z Fri. Strong north winds already gusting near 40 kts at 1540z will get even stronger through the afternoon and evening, with gusts as high as 50 kts. Light rain will overspread all airports after 21z Thu, with ceilings rapidly falling to IFR. After 00z Fri, an intense but relatively narrow band of heavy snow and blowing snow is expected to develop roughly along a DDC-HYS line, where widespread IFR/LIFR is expected. Rain will also change to snow at GCK/LBL this evening, but impacts are expected to be less severe. Expect rapidly improving conditions by 12z Fri as the storm system exits, with a clearing sky to VFR/SKC and diminishing NW winds. VFR/SKC is expected daylight Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 27 49 28 66 / 100 10 0 0 GCK 26 54 28 64 / 100 0 0 0 EHA 27 55 27 66 / 60 0 0 0 LBL 27 56 24 66 / 90 0 0 0 HYS 29 46 27 64 / 100 10 0 0 P28 32 53 32 69 / 100 30 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ043-044-063-076-077-081-087>090. Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-078>080. && SYNOPSIS...Turner SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 150 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180700- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 150 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 /1250 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south central...southwest and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Day 1 Discussion ---------------- Increasing northerly winds after daybreak Thursday morning increasing to 45-55 mph gusts by afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish after midnight with north to northwest winds 10-20 mph by sunrise Friday morning. Winter weather should occur for areas north of Dodge City stretching up to the I-70 corridor as rain transitions to snow by late afternoon and throughout the evening hours lasting until midnight. Accumulations up to 2-3 inches are possible in this particular area with lesser amounts for points south and west. Day 1 Hazards ------------- * Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk * Winter weather: Significant risk .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Days 2-7 Discussion ------------------- Elevated fire weather risk for much of the long term as relative humidity values drop to the 20 percent range as afternoon high temperatures push back into the 60s and 70s. Monday and Tuesday will see a cool down as beneficial rain falls across southwest Kansas with more wind and fire weather concerns towards the end of the period by mid next week. Days 2-7 Hazards ---------------- * Friday - Fire weather: Elevated risk * Saturday - Fire weather: Elevated risk * Sunday - Fire weather: Elevated risk * Monday - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk * Tuesday - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk - Fire weather: Elevated risk * Wednesday - Fire weather: Elevated risk .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && For more details visit our webpage https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0313 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW ELKHART 37.04N 101.97W
03/17/2022 M61 MPH MORTON KS MESONET
MESONET STATION CW8810 ELKHART.
&&
JDFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 winter weather, 3 high wind, 1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Observed on highway 50 mile marker post 4.
Observed in Elkhart.
Observed at the Dodge City airport.
Snowfall of 6.5 inches was observed at a location 3 NE of Garfield. Strong winds and the wet snow took down several power poles in the area.
Snowfall of 5.0 inches was observed in Larned.
Snowfall of 2.5 inches was observed in Mullinville.
Snowfall of 2.0 inches was observed in Hays.
Snowfall of 1.2 inches was observed at a location 14 SSE Syracuse.
Snowfall of 1.0 inch was observed at a location in LaCrosse.
Snowfall of 1.0 inch was observed at a location 5.4 SW of Spearville.
Snowfall of 1.0 inch was observed in Healy.
Snowfall of 1.0 inch was observed at Cedar Bluff Reservoir.
Snowfall of 1.0 inch was observed at a location 3.7 SE of Ford.
Snowfall of 1.0 inch was observed at a location 3.5 S Minneola.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, March 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1016318, 1016319, 1016320, 1016323, 1016324, 1016325, 1016326, 1016327, 1016328, 1016329, 1016330, 1016331, 1016332, 1016335.