Winter Storm in New Mexico, March 17, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
236 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system tracks across northern New Mexico today, bringing a
round of mountain snow as well as more widespread breezy to windy
conditions. Several inches of snow across the northern mountains and
Raton Mesa may lead to travel impacts today and tonight. Meanwhile,
wind gusts to near 50 mph will favor areas along and west of the
Continental Divide as well as eastern New Mexico. Much calmer
conditions arrive Friday and Saturday with warming temperatures.
Another storm system then sets its sights on the area starting
Sunday, bringing more high winds and the potential for widespread
precipitation into next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
No changes anticipated to the existing wind/winter weather
highlights early this morning. Light precipitation west of the
Continental Divide early this morning should end quickly with the
focus shifting into the north central/northeast and then along the
central mountain chain as a closed circulation develops over east
central/northeast NM this afternoon. NAM12 indicates some
instability this afternoon over the northern mountains where
isolated thunder could occur per the SPC Day 1 outlook but will
leave out of the grids for now. Patchy blowing dust is possible with
the strongest winds over the western and eastern thirds of the
forecast area. Showers to linger through the evening over the
central mountain chain and northeast before exiting. A weak wave on
Friday may spark isolated showers over the northern peaks.
Temperatures will range from about 5-20 degrees below normal today
and although warmer on Friday, will still be about 5-10 degrees
cooler than normal. Lows tonight will be near to about 10 degrees
colder than average.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Pleasant weather is on tap Friday night and Saturday as a ridge of
high pressure crosses the area. This will lead to continued warming
temperatures and light winds across the area. The main concern
through the long term period remains a strong storm system that gets
started on Sunday.

By Sunday morning, this trough will be digging into the Great Basin
area, and flow aloft will turn southwesterly and strengthen as a SW-
NE oriented jet is steered overhead. 700mb winds within the core of
this jet that bisects the state from the Bootheel towards Union
County will increase to 30-40 knots as a lee-side surface low deepens
to about 995mb across SE CO. With deep mixing heights also in place,
surface winds will strengthen areawide on Sunday, and some
locations, particularly across the south and east, may reach Wind
Advisory speeds. But Sunday only looks to be the beginning of a windy
pattern. That trough continues to deepen as it moves into AZ Sunday
evening, finally developing into a closed low as it tracks across NM
Monday through early Tuesday. As it does track across the area, it
brings a Pacific cold front eastward through the area Monday evening,
and a tight surface pressure gradient will help strengthen
northwesterly winds along that front. Meanwhile, the backdoor portion
of the front moves into northeastern NM Monday afternoon. Again, a
tight pressure surface gradient along with very strong 700mb winds
nearing 50 knots along this front will also strengthen northerly
winds across the east.

The past few days have seen the models at odds with each other in
this system's overall track and timing. While differences still
exist, the latest 00Z guidance seems to suggest that models are trying
to come to an agreement. As mentioned, this trough develops into a
closed low near the NM/AZ border before tracking across the state.
The ECMWF and the Canadian have been somewhat more consistent in
developing a more southerly track, tracking that low just south of
the I-40 corridor. The latest run of the GFS is now coming into
agreement with that more southerly track. Moisture advection and
favorable dynamics associated with this ~546dam H5 low looks to
produce a widespread precipitation event. This gets started Sunday
afternoon across the west, becoming more widespread Monday morning
through the afternoon. While temperatures will fall with the passage
of this system and its fronts, they don't look to be cold enough to
send snow levels to valley floors. 700mb temperatures falling to -2C
to -6C behind the passage of these fronts will likely support a more
mountain snow event with snow levels only falling to around 6,000
feet. An area to watch closely for heavy precipitation potential
though will be the northeast plains, highlands, and east slopes where
upslope flow from the aforementioned backdoor cold front will
interact with high levels of moisture and the closed low Monday
morning.

That closed low moves into the TX Panhandle by Monday evening and
precipitation will taper off west to east. But wraparound moisture
and a trailing shortwave will keep precipitation continuing across
the east likely trough Tuesday. The latter half of the week looks to
be much calmer with dry northwest flow leading to warming
temperatures.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest to north winds gusting to 40-50 mph are most likely today
west of the Rio Grande Valley as well as across the eastern plains.
The area where these strong winds and low humidities coincide today
will be the southern portions of the Middle Rio Grande Valley and
the West Central Highlands. High temperatures though are forecast to
be about 5-10 degrees cooler than normal and forecast Haines is low
to moderate. Therefore will not issue any fire weather highlights
for today.

Otherwise, scattered showers, some with wetting precipitation will
be focused over north central and northeast New Mexico as well as
portions of the central mountain chain. Accumulating snow is
anticipated over the north central and northeast at elevations near
and above 7500 feet. Highs today and Friday will range from about 5-
20 degrees below normal.

Temperatures will rebound to normal or above Saturday through
Sunday. Potential for critical fire weather conditions returns
Sunday for areas south of I-40 and east of the central mountain
chain as winds increase and humidities decrease in advance of an
incoming storm system. Forecast models have been having a great deal
of difficulty settling on a track for this system. Currently, model
trends have been leaning toward a more southerly track over far
southern New Mexico so widespread precipitation would result Sunday
night through Monday. Temperatures look to cool back down to 5-15
degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday. Showers may linger over the
central and east into Tuesday before drier weather returns.

Ventilation will be mostly good to excellent today through Sunday
but some localized areas of fair to poor are forecast each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Upper trough moving over wrn NM at 05Z to develop into a closed low
over east central NM by 12Z. Mts occasionally obscured in lcl MVFR
cigs/vsbys in -shrasn over wrn and north central NM with the showers
shifting over north central/ne NM by 15Z on the back side of the
upper low circulation when nwly winds gusting to around 40 kts kick
in. Isold tstms not out of the question over north central NM aft 18Z
where models indicate decent instab. Showers may persist over central
NM aft 18/00Z while winds diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  24  57  26 /  10   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  15  50  18 /  50  20   5   0
Cuba............................  48  20  52  24 /  30  20   0   0
Gallup..........................  52  17  58  20 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  48  19  55  25 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  51  16  59  18 /  20   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  51  20  59  24 /  20   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  54  25  57  28 /   5   5   0   0
Datil...........................  50  21  57  25 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  58  22  63  20 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  64  31  66  32 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  42  10  43  15 /  70  30   5   0
Los Alamos......................  46  23  49  28 /  60  40   0   0
Pecos...........................  43  19  49  26 /  70  50   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  13  45  24 /  80  20   0   0
Red River.......................  33   9  38  14 /  90  30   5   0
Angel Fire......................  34   6  40   8 /  90  30   5   0
Taos............................  43  17  48  19 /  70  20   0   0
Mora............................  40  16  48  22 /  80  30   0   0
Espanola........................  51  17  54  27 /  60  30   0   0
Santa Fe........................  46  21  50  28 /  60  50   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  49  22  53  25 /  60  40   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  28  55  36 /  40  30   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  30  57  34 /  30  30   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  24  59  30 /  30  20   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  28  57  31 /  30  20   0   0
Belen...........................  60  28  61  27 /  20  20   0   0
Bernalillo......................  54  26  58  31 /  40  30   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  59  26  60  26 /  30  20   0   0
Corrales........................  55  27  58  31 /  40  30   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  59  27  61  27 /  30  20   0   0
Placitas........................  50  25  55  34 /  50  40   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  28  57  32 /  30  30   0   0
Socorro.........................  62  31  63  31 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  23  51  32 /  50  40   0   0
Tijeras.........................  49  25  54  31 /  50  40   0   0
Edgewood........................  47  22  53  28 /  60  40   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  19  55  21 /  60  50   0   0
Clines Corners..................  42  19  49  25 /  70  50   0   0
Mountainair.....................  50  22  54  27 /  40  30   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  23  55  29 /  40  30   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  28  56  33 /  20  20   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  24  50  31 /  30  20   0   0
Capulin.........................  37  16  46  21 /  80  40   0   0
Raton...........................  41  17  50  19 /  80  30   0   0
Springer........................  40  17  50  20 /  70  30   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  40  18  50  23 /  70  30   0   0
Clayton.........................  41  25  53  28 /  70  50   0   0
Roy.............................  42  21  53  25 /  50  30   0   0
Conchas.........................  48  24  58  27 /  60  40   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  26  59  29 /  60  30   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  51  27  60  29 /  60  40   0   0
Clovis..........................  52  26  58  30 /  40  30   0   0
Portales........................  55  27  59  29 /  40  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  26  60  29 /  40  30   0   0
Roswell.........................  62  30  61  31 /  20  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  56  26  57  33 /  20  20   0   0
Elk.............................  54  24  54  31 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ228-230>232-234>236.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ206>208-241.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ213>215.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ210>212.

&&