Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. This led to another round of showers and thunderstorms across southwest Colorado.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. This led to another round of showers and thunderstorms across southwest Colorado. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. One such storm wiped out a portion of the road leading from the El Diente Peak trailhead from flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 10:37 AM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1137 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1130AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Satellite showing convection firing near the Pack Creek burn scar with some lightning also being detected. As the burn scar did run yesterday, there is certainly a chance that it might run if enough rain falls on it today. With that in mind, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the scar to account for this possibility. .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 357 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 This has been a robust monsoon push the past few days which has been verified by rain and river gauges. Over the past 24 hours a large area of southwest Colorado and southeast Utah have seen precipitation totals in the 0.3 to 0.8 range. Numerous reports of over an inch and 1.5 inches have been recorded along and south of Highway 160 corridor. This is where a convection blossomed late last evening from a northward moving outflow boundary...and which has left a weak MCV over the southern San Juans early this morning. With remaining cloud cover...floating boundaries and possibly another weak MCV over EC Utah...confidence is not very high that my forecast going out this morning will reflect real time by noon. The overall spirit of the forecast remains similar to days past with the best activity expected over the San Juans. Outflow boundaries will continue to dictate where other storms will cluster in the 4 Corners region where the deepest moisture remains in place. Storms down here will continue to be capable of moderate to heavy rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour. Fully expect some flooding issues again today...especially over areas saturated from last night's rainfall. Of all our burn scars the Pack Creek would be the odds on favorite to run again if some of the hires/CAM models are to be believed. Storms should fire on the high plateaus and central mountains this afternoon. Farther North towards the WY border things will be more isolated as subsidence behind a wave settles in. Convection will likely linger again through the late evening hours as outflows continue to interact with the moist unstable conditions. As mentioned yesterday high pressure continues to be fragmented across the southern states and into Northern California according to the latest H500 hand analysis. One feature to focus on is the easterly wave moving into S.Arizona this morning which continues to force vigorous convection early this morning. The anticyclone aloft will become more defined over the S.Rockies by early Monday as the Cali and Southern Plains cells merge. The Arizona wave will catch the increased southerly flow and lift across Utah on Monday pushing moisture ahead of it and leading to better storm coverage for the northern CWA. With the moisture shifting northward the threat of flooding should lessen across the 4 Corners region. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 357 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Monday night has the strong high pressure from the Great Basin centered over the southern Rockies with ridging extending north along the Rockies to Montana. By this time, the cutoff low off the Pacific Northwest coast that dislodged the high to the east out of the Great Basin has continued to drift south and is now off the coast of Northern California with the remnants of Frank, at this time a tropical depression, gliding northward to merge into the cutoff low Wednesday night into Thursday. The high over the southern Rockies has pushed the monsoonal surge to the west through Southern California and north into the Western Great Basin with anomalous PWats 200% to 250% of normal. As this moisture wraps around the high, the PWats north of I-70 rise to 170% to 200% normal through Tuesday night. With an inverted trough rotating around the west side of the high and onto the northern flank Monday night into Tuesday, the moisture and dynamics are together to support stronger thunderstorms producing heavy rain and possible flash flooding across northeastern Utah and northern Colorado. The timing of the trough could kick off nocturnal convection early Tuesday morning in northeastern Utah, spreading across the northern areas through the day, and ending with storms running late into the evening to the east in Route County. The residual moisture in place across Western Colorado will spawn showers and thunderstorm over the mountains of Colorado and giving a break to the Four Corners area and southeastern Utah with drier conditions for a day or two. Wednesday will see afternoon showers mostly over the mountains of Colorado as a shortwave slides down the northeast flank of the high and eastern Utah will remain dry. By Thursday, the high shifts east of the Divide, opening the door for another surge of monsoonal moisture north into the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading southeast to northwest through the afternoon and evening. Look for coverage of afternoon and evening convection to increase Friday and Saturday as the surge continues. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Convective cells are already forming this morning over the higher terrain and this trend will continue this afternoon with some cells moving into the valleys as the day progresses. Included VCTS/VCSH for most TAF sites with some storms possible on station. While best chances for convection affecting TAF sites stays down south, a shower or storm can't be ruled out elsewhere. VFR conditions will be predominant but there is a chance for MVFR due to moderate to heavy rainfall rates. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM MDT this evening for UTZ028. && UPDATE...TGR SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 404 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011015- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 404 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorm development will occur again today and persist into the late evening and possibly early morning hours. The best coverage will be over the San Juan mountains becoming more isolated toward the Wyoming border. Storm in southeast Utah and southwest Colorado will have the potential for rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour. This will continue to bring a threat for excess runoff and flooding issues...especially over burn scars and areas that already received heavy rainfall the past few days. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will threats in all areas today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Thunderstorm development will occur Monday through Saturday as monsoon mositure continues to circulate through the region. Better storm coverage will drift northward through the early week period while southern locations dry out some with high pressure directly overhead. Mositure returns to most areas by midweek with a threat of heavy rainfall impacting many areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
918 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0918 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 W PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.27N 107.10W
07/31/2022 M1.40 INCH ARCHULETA CO TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL OVERNIGHT.
&&
TGRPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1049 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.25N 107.09W
07/31/2022 M0.90 INCH ARCHULETA CO TRAINED SPOTTER
OVERNIGHT.
&&
TGRThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
While performing a search and rescue operation for an injured hiker at El Diente Peak, Dolores County Search and Rescue members narrowly escaped a portion of the road exiting the trailhead being washed out as a result of flash flooding from heavy rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035767.