Localized flash flooding was reported over the southeast portion of the Cameron Peak burn area near Glen Haven. Larimer County Road 43 was impassable with floodwaters overtopping the roadway near Streamside Drive.
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The episode as NWS BOU wrote it up.
Localized flash flooding was reported over the southeast portion of the Cameron Peak burn area near Glen Haven. Larimer County Road 43 was impassable with floodwaters overtopping the roadway near Streamside Drive.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Denver/Boulder, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 1:13 PM MST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 157 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 The upper level ridge that extends into the four corners area has pushed slightly north over the last 12 hours bringing increased moisture to the region. PW values increased slightly from yesterday with values close to 0.9 inches. Currently, MLCAPE values range from 400 to 700 joules for the higher terrain and urban corridor with closer to 1000 for the eastern plains. ACARs soundings show an inverted-V profile with high-based convection mainly bringing gusty winds and light to moderate rain to the lower elevations. These storms will be able to put down up to a half an inch in a short period of time for the higher elevations so will maintain a limited threat for burn scars. Storms will dissipate with the loss of sunlight with overnight temperatures in the 60s for the plains and 40s to 50s in the mountains. The ridge continues to strengthen Monday with less CAPE than today and weak shear. Storms will be more isolated with light to moderate rain, lightning, and gusty winds possible. Model soundings show dry low levels with DCAPE values over 1000 joules that would bring more of a gusty wind threat for the lower elevations with the stronger storms. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with 60s to 70s in the high country. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 157 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Monday night, upper level high pressure will be over the Central and Southern Rockies with the center over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico. Mostly dry conditons are expected across the forecast area, with the exception of isolated showers and storms across the mountains. Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper ridge flattens in response to an upper level shortwave moving across the Northern Rockies and Great Plains States. Lift and moisture convergence along a weak cool front associated with the shortwave may help kick off some showers and storms across the plains as it moves across Northeastern Colorado Tuesday evening. Across the mountains, there should be enough residual monsoonal moisture trapped under the ridge combined with daytime heating to produce scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. Behind the front, Wednesday's max temperatures on the plains should be somewhat cooler with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For Thursday through Saturday there is some uncertainty in the forecast due to run to run model inconsistencies. Many of the deterministic and ensemble members are showing the upper ridge building over Colorado which is considerably different than yesterday's 12Z runs. Previous runs showed the upper high shifting eastward across the Central Plains States with a decent plume of monsoonal moisture moving across all of the CWA. With the ridge over the forecast area, the plume would tend to stay over the western half of Colorado keeping most of the showers and storms in the high country with drier conditions further east across the plains. With plenty of available moisture and some instability to work with,(700- 500 mb Specific Humidity of 6.50-7.50 g/kg and CAPE values between 400-700 J/KG) there will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall in the high country with some flash flooding possible, especially in and near the burn scars. In addition, this pattern would result in a continuation of above normal temperatures on the plains with daytime readings climbing into the middle to upper 90s each day. Late Saturday into Sunday, models are hinting at another shortwave moving across the Northern Rockies and Plains States which may send another weak cool front across Northeastern Colorado. This may lead to better precipitation chances across the plains over the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures by Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorms are still expected at area terminals between 21z and 01z although they are expected to be isolated in nature. Main concerns will be gusty and erratic winds and outflow boundaries with convection into the early evening. Outside of convection winds will transition to the northeast then veer around to drainage by 06z. with normal diurnal patterns expected for the remainder of the TAF period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 157 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Isolated showers and storms will be possible on Monday starting in the afternoon and continuing into the evening hours. Conditions will be slightly more stable with weak shear so storms will not be as strong. Storms will still be capable of producing some light rainfall but the risk of flash flooding is lower. Scattered to numerous showers are expected across the high county Tuesday through Sunday. Some of the storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall with a limited potential for flash flooding in and near the burn areas each day. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Bowen LONG TERM...jk AVIATION...Bowen HYDROLOGY...Bowen/jk
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1030 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 COZ030>051-011630- Jackson County Below 9000 Feet- West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet- Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet- South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/ Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet- South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/ Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above 9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet- Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet- Central and Southeast Park County- Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County- Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield County- North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County- Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet- Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County- Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties- North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County- Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County- Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County- 1030 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight This afternoon and evening, widespread storms over the mountains will bring moderate rainfall and a limited threat of burn area flash flooding. Storms will move over the plains during the late afternoon and bring light to moderate rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds. An isolated, marginally severe storm is possible with high winds and large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Scattered late day showers and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains on Monday. The plains will mainly be dry. From Tuesday into next weekend, more moisture is expected over the forecast area. Late day showers and thunderstorms will be likely in the mountains with isolated to scattered coverage over the plains. There will be a threat of burn area flash flooding each day. Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight but rainfall reports would be greatly appreciated.
The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:20 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
County Road 43 at Streamside Drive was impassable due to floodwaters from Miller Fork.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035351.