High Wind and Strong Wind in California, February 21 to 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
205 AM PST Mon Feb 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler, unsettled weather can be expected for much of
the week as low pressure over Canada drops into the western states.
Gusty winds in the Sierra will spread across the Mojave Desert
today. Rain and low elevation snow will be possible Tuesday into
Wednesday, with the best snow chances being across Mohave and
Lincoln counties.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night. Early morning satellite loop
clearly showed the cold trough which will drive our weather for the
next few days approaching from the north. There are lots of hazards
to cover in the short term, so will take it day by day. Today: Winds
in the eastern Sierra slopes have been unimpressive thus far, but
should ramp up before sunrise. Mid level water vapor imagery showed
a small area of descending motion in the lee of the mountains that
should help mix the winds down to the surface. There is still some
question regarding how far the winds might penetrate down the slopes
and eastward into the Owens Valley, but the risk is there, so the
Wind Advisory will remain in place. As the belt of stronger mid
level winds progresses south later this morning, surface winds will
respond across the Mojave Desert, and the Wind Advisories look good
there as well. The strongest winds will be in the Barstow area, and
could flirt with High Wind Warning criteria this afternoon and early
evening. The winds will also persist longest there (through
Tuesday), and have opted to stick with the Wind Advisory rather than
have a Warning for a few hours this afternoon followed by an
Advisory tonight and Tuesday. Also added a Lake Wind Advisory for
the Lake Mead NRA, as wave model output keeps creeping up with each
successive run, and now shows waves over two feet high in portions
of Boulder Basin, Virgin Basin, and Lake Mohave. As the second
shortwave trough digs into the longwave trough and sharpens/deepens
it on Tuesday, precip chances will overspread our area from north to
south Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Chilly temperatures will
already be in place, with even colder air pouring in Tuesday night.
Snow levels will already be down to the valley floors in Lincoln
County as the precip chances move in on Tuesday, and will crash down
to 2500 to 3000 feet in Mohave County Wednesday morning as the best
chances for precip arrive. With that in mind, hoisted a Winter Storm
Watch for areas above 3000 feet in Lincoln and Mohave counties from
Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Forecast snow amounts in
Mohave County have been fairly steady for a couple of days at around
one inch in Kingman, up to six inches on Interstate 40 near the
Yavapai County line, and around seven inches in Colorado City.
Amounts in Lincoln County have been slowly trending up, and are now
up to four to seven inches along Highway 93 from Caliente north,
with a foot or more on the highest mountain peaks. There will also
be a chance of flurries/very light snow on the desert floors as low
as the Las Vegas Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. While not as
impactful as the totals expected in the Winter Storm Watch area, it
will generate quite a bit of excitement if it occurs. By sunset
Wednesday, the main trough axis is forecast to be exiting stage
right and taking the precip chances with it.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.

Much calmer weather expected for the extended period as the broad
trough across West slides eastward and high pressure rebuilds
through the weekend. Thursday will start off cool however with a
crisp Canadian airmass entrenched across Great Basin. Hard freezes
will be a possibility for parts of Mohave County Thursday morning,
especially with the likelihood of snow cover across the middle and
higher elevations. Additionally, low temperatures near or below
freezing are probable across much of the Mojave Desert including Las
Vegas. Overnight wind trends will ultimately play a large role in
just how cool the morning lows get.

Thereafter, a gradual moderating trend is expected Friday through
the weekend as a high pressure ridge builds back across the West.
Temperatures will trend closer to seasonal normal by Sunday, but
still likely hover a couple degrees on the cool side of average.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Minor to moderate impacts possible
through the next 30 hours for Harry Reid. South-southwest winds
generally 10-15kts gusting to around 20kts overnight. Wind and gust
speeds are expected to increase by mid to late morning from the
southwest and gradually become more westerly. Gusts will likely
exceed 30 kts, especially during the afternoon hours before gusts
drop off in the evening and winds become lighter by midnight. Dense
cloud cover with CIGS AOA 15kft through daybreak then skies will
clear.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Initially light winds across the region this afternoon
will increase in the afternoon out of the southwest for most
terminals. Previous concerns of downslope winds reaching KBIH are
less likely with no guidance showing this occurring. Gusty southwest
winds will continue overnight into early the early morning hours at
TAF sites with the exception of north winds at KBIH and lighter
south-southeast winds at KIFP and KEED. By mid-late morning,
southwest winds will increase at all TAF sites (except KBIH) and
continue through the afternoon, with the strongest winds expected at
KDAG. Dense mid-high clouds are expected to clear out at KBIH before
sunrise this morning and by 9 am at all other TAF sites.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Salmen

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter