NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 11, 9:38 AM PST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 11, 9:38 AM PST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1038 AM PDT Mon Apr 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front will bring widespread light
rain to the region along with cooler temperatures. Onshore
northwest winds will enhance again this afternoon in association
with that frontal passage. Drier by Tuesday, however, cool and
unsettled weather continues through late week with additional
light rain possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:55 AM PDT Monday...A cold front currently
bisects the region this morning with widespread, albeit mostly
light, rainfall being reported. Most interior locations have
picked up only a few hundredths to 0.10" during the past 6 hours
with 0.25" to 0.50" along the Bay Area coastal ranges. The big
winner thus far has been in Marin County on the upslope side of
Mount Tamalpais where 0.50 to 1.00" has been reported. As such,
many Mill Valley residents reported moderate to locally heavy
rainfall as the front passed through the region.
Look for precipitation to continue to spread southward across the
Santa Cruz Mountains, South Bay and along the Central Coast
through late morning before diminishing early this afternoon.
Generally speaking, precipitation will end from north to south
through the early afternoon. All this said, the ongoing forecast
remains on track at this hour with no major updates anticipated at
this time. For complete details on the week ahead and beyond,
please see the previous forecast discussion below.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 04:12 AM PDT Monday...An approaching cold
front is on track to bring light rain to our CWA this morning into
the afternoon. Light rain of 0.05" has been measured near the far
northern boundary of our forecast area along the Mendocino/Sonoma
county line in Gualala, CA. Within our CWA, the Oakridge RAWS in
far Sonoma County is the only site, thus far, to show measurable
rain in the past hour of 0.03". The latest NBM is in agreement
with hi-res models (local WRF, HRRR, and NAM) in terms of timing
of the rain and how it will play out across our region today.
Light rain will impact the North Bay first then progress into the
SF metro/peninsula, East and South Bay this morning before
tracking southward into the Monterey Bay and Central CA region
around 8 to 9 am PDT. By 10 to 11 am, rain should exit the Bay
Area, but remain in the Monterey Bay/Central CA area into the
early afternoon. By 3 to 5 pm PDT, much of the precipitation is
expected to have moved out of our CWA. Rain totals haven't
oscillated dramatically. In lower elevations and the valley floor,
rain totals are forecast between a few hundredths and up to
around 0.25". For higher elevations, peak rain amounts could
approach a half inch.
In addition to the light rain, this frontal passage will also
enhance onshore (northwest) flow again this afternoon into
evening where we could see gusty conditions again along coastal
areas and over higher terrain. Strongest gusts over peaks above
2500 ft elevation could reach around 50 mph and coastal areas may
see gusts peak between 35 to 45 mph. Although Wind Advisory
criteria may be met on occasion in localized areas, the winds
won't be widespread enough to warrant issuing this product.
However, residents should know that if you head to the beach, it
will be windy and if you are above 2500 ft in higher terrain, then
you'll experience intermittent gusty conditions.
By late tonight, our CWA will be drier and winds will gradually
diminish by Tuesday morning as daytime highs are chilly and stay
mostly in the 50s. With those drier conditions and clearer skies
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning...expect a chilly start to
your Tuesday. Inland valleys could feel quite chilly with
overnight lows in the 30s. Patchy frost may develop in sheltered
valley floors if the winds become calm in those locations.
The outlook for the rest of the week is cool with additional
waves of light rain between late Wednesday into Saturday as a
broad trough lingers over the Western US. The North Bay will be
favored for rain amounts this week (over 3/4 of an inch) while
areas south of the Golden Gate probably won't see as much (less
than a half inch). The long range models don't exactly agree on
the timing of additional short waves bringing light rain into our
CWA. So until the details become more clear, plan on having a
raincoat or umbrella handy to use throughout this week.
Overall, daytime highs will range 5 to 15 degrees cooler than
normal this week while overnight lows should be near normal to 5
to 10 degrees below normal. Monday and Tuesday will likely be the
coolest days/mornings. Gradual warming is expected by the end of
the week where highs are forecast to get back into the mid 60s to
low 70s. On Sunday, a bit more warming should occur with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s as a ridge develops over the west coast.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 10:38 AM PDT Monday...For the 18Z TAFs. The
front is moving southeastward through the region, with the
boundary passing literally just south of KSFO at the time this
discussion was published. Behind the front to the north is
clearing skies with SCT could bases around 3000 feet, with
occasional 1500 feet. Ahead of the front to the south continues
light rain and BKN/OVC clouds at or just below 1000 feet. The
front should pass south of the Monterey Bay between 20Z and 21Z.
After the front passing, a spare random shower might pop-up
briefly at or near terminals, but no major impacts expected. Rain
accumulation have only been a few hundredths, but enough for wet
runaways. With cold overnight temps and the added moisture, there
is a chance for light patchy shallow fog Tuesday morning, but
confidence was in mostly VFR through the TAF.
The bigger impact to area terminals will be the strong and gusty
northwest winds in the post frontal environment. Winds have
already start gusting between 25 to 30 kts. There is a chance for
up to 40 kt gusts at coastal terminals Monday afternoon. These
winds will likely remain through much of Monday and evening, yet
stay breezy overnight. LLWS is a possible if the surface winds cut
off, but LLWS has only been added to North bay terminals where
confidence was strongest. Tuesday will be windy and VFR.
Vicinity of KSFO...As the front exists, improving conditions are
expected by 19Z, though lingering light showers may crop up at or
around the terminal into the early afternoon. Current IFR cigs
should break up to VFR conditions by 19Z. Gusty onshore winds
return Monday afternoon, persisting through the evening. Winds may
have a lull early Tuesday morning, but increase Tuesday afternoon
with VFR conditions.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay...MVFR with the chance for IFR conditions for both
cigs and vis as the rain moves down the coast. VFR conditions will
return after 21Z when the front moves southward. Slight chance for
lingering showers in the post-frontal environment, but conditions
should dry out. Winds increase and be southwesterly before the
front, then turn to the northwest after the front Monday
afternoon with gusts between 25 to 30 kts possible. With cool
overnight temperatures and an influx of moisture, there is a
chance for low clouds to build up along the mountain ranges, but
confidence is too low to add to the TAF at this time. Tuesday will
be VFR and breezy.
&&
.MARINE...as of 07:46 AM PDT Monday...Winds have diminished
slightly Monday morning as a weak cold front passes over the
waters bringing light rain with it. In the wake of the front,
winds will increase again to bring the return of gale force gusts
t much of the waters Monday afternoon and into the evening. The
sea state will remain a wind driven swell between 8 to 11 seconds
through mid week. A brief lull in the winds is forecast on
Wednesday before the next system drops southward for another
chance of rain over the waters.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 PM
GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM
GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 3 PM
GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM
SCA...SF Bay from 11 AM
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass/Bingaman
AVIATION: DK
MARINE: DK
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