High Wind in Nevada, April 11, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
247 PM PDT Sun Apr 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Light snow showers move into northern Humboldt and
northern Elko counties tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will expand across all of northern NV on Monday, turning to all
snow showers by evening behind a cold front. Gusty winds are
expected on Monday, strongest in central Nevada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night

A long wave trof is in place over much of the U.S. Some moisture
will be advecting into northern Nevada tonight into early Monday
morning in the warm sector of a system as it moves into
Oregon/Washington. This will allow for some showers, mainly north
of I-80, and best concentrated in northern Elko and northern
Humboldt Counties. Snow levels will be low enough for snow in
these areas into the early morning.

A cold front will be moving through Nevada late in the afternoon
and early evening, bringing showers with it. The bulk of the
precipitation will remain in northern Nevada, though some showers
are possible in central Nevada, anywhere from about US Hwy 50 and
north. Snow levels on Monday afternoon are expected to rise to
around 5500 to 6000 feet in the afternoon in Elko County, and 6500
to 7000 feet in central Nevada, which will limit snowfall
accumulations to passes and higher valleys during the afternoon,
and therefore Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for
northern Elko County from 6000 feet and above as well as the
Ruby Mountains. There is enough instability for some isolated
thunderstorms on Monday afternoon as the cold front moves through.
There is a 20% chance for some snow squall conditions in the
vicinity of the front, which could rapidly drop visibility as rain
quickly changes over to snow and winds strengthen, creating
hazardous road conditions as roads quickly ice up. Thunderstorms
could also provide graupel or hail. Snow levels will rapidly drop
behind the front late in the afternoon and into the evening, and any
post-frontal showers will provide for an inch or 2 of snow in the
valleys of northern Nevada into the overnight hours on Monday
night.

A strong jet accompanies the system and strong gusty westerly winds
are expected ahead of the front on Monday, especially in central
Nevada, and then northwest winds behind the front on Monday night
and Tuesday. Wind Advisories are in effect for Monday into Monday
night. Areas of blowing dust is expected in central Nevada ahead
of the front, and some blowing snow will be occurring in northern
Nevada behind the front, especially in higher elevations. High
temperatures ahead of the front on Monday will be in the 40's and
50's in northern Nevada and the mid 50's to upper 60's in central
Nevada. Lows Monday night, however, will quickly drop into the
teens through the lower 20's behind the front.

As additional shortwaves move through the longwave on Monday
night into Tuesday night, scattered snow showers are expected,
again, mainly north of US Hwy 50. Valleys could see up to an
additional inch or snow of snow. Much cooler highs are expected,
in the mid 20's to mid 30's on Tuesday. Northwest winds will be
gusty, especially in the northeast corner of Nevada. Lows will
drop into the teens for most valleys Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday to next Sunday

Unsettled conditions will continue to dominate through next Thursday
as a series of troughs move through northern and central Nevada.
Scattered snow showers are likely Wednesday across northern Nevada
with trace accumulations in the mountains and summits. Although a
drop from earlier in the week, north to northwesterly winds will
remain breezy Wednesday too across northern and central Nevada with
gusts ranging from 20 to 25 mph. The highest gusts are trending to
be over Humboldt and Elko counties.  Thursday is trending to include
a wider area of precipitaion with a chance of rain and snow showers
for areas north of HWY 50. Confidence is moderate on the location
and timing of this precipitation. Wind gusts throughout northern and
central Nevada could range from 20 to 30 mph Thursday.  Morning lows
will range from 10s/20s to 20s/30s with daytime highs in the 40s/50s
in northern Nevada and 50s/60s in central Nevada.

The likelihood of continued precipitation on Friday, Saturday and
Sunday are more uncertain. A ridge could begin to build into
northern Nevada late Friday and remain through most of the
weekend. Alternatively, some models and ensembles are hinting a
continued unsettled conditions resulting in the chance of
scattered snow and rain showers during most of these days.
Therefore, low confidence exists regarding the likelihood of
continued precipitation the end of the work week and next weekend.
Daytime highs in the 40s/50s in northern Nevada and 50s/60s in
central Nevada are possible with morning lows ranging from the
20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected tonight. Showers are
possible at KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO by early morning Monday  ahead
of a cold front with some MVFR conditions possible in snow
showers.

Rain and snow showers continue at northern terminals through the
afternoon. A strong cold front will move through late Monday
afternoon and into the evening, and snow squalls are possible
along the front at KBAM, KELY, and possible KELY. A rapid drop in
VIS, strong winds, and a quick shot of heavy snow could create
hazardous conditions along this front.

Strong westerly winds are expected ahead of the front on Monday,
strongest in central Nevada, where KTPH could see 45 kt plus
gusts by evening. Winds turn northwest behind the front and remain
strong at KTPH into Monday night.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM PDT Tuesday for
Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Humboldt County-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwest Elko County.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Northeastern Nye
County-South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-White
Pine County.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
Northwestern Nye County.

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