Frigid arctic high pressure situated along the lee of the Canadian Rockies into northeast Montana gradually pushed over the Northern Plains, bringing life threatening cold to western and central North Dakota. This after what had been a mild winter to that point.
Every event with a place to put it; 32 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
Frigid arctic high pressure situated along the lee of the Canadian Rockies into northeast Montana gradually pushed over the Northern Plains, bringing life threatening cold to western and central North Dakota. This after what had been a mild winter to that point. Initially, the coldest wind chills were found primarily over the northern portions of the area, but reinforcing rounds of cold air continued to push through, resulting in the life threatening cold pushing into the southern part of the state. Wind chill values to 60 below were experienced over northern locations, with values to 50 below over southern locations. Minot experienced twelve days in a row with low temperatures of 10 below zero or lower, with Bismarck experiencing ten days in a row of these conditions. These long runs of cold temperatures were attained with little to no snow on the ground.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 5:53 PM CST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 553 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 553 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 High clouds are increasing across western North Dakota ahead of the approaching shortwave, with some light radar returns moving into eastern Montana. Still expecting light snow to move into the southwest this evening and overnight, but accumulations should be light, under half an inch. Wind chills are already bitterly cold across the north, as low as 30 degrees below zero in Divide County. Main message continues to be the life- threatening wind chills through the weekend and into next week. No major changes with this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 A little light snow southwest and life-threatening wind chills highlight the short-term forecast period. Arctic high pressure will begin pushing into the northern Plains tonight. With a deep low pressure near the Hudson Bay the gradient between the low pressure and building Arctic high pressure will maintain a blustery northwest wind tonight and tomorrow. Winds 10 to 20 mph will combine with very cold temperatures to produce wind chills of 30 to 50 below zero. Tonight, a shortwave trough riding on the nose of a 120 knot upper jet tracks across southwest North Dakota. This wave appears to be slightly stronger than last night's. This should be enough to produce a period of light snow over southwestern ND, and numerous flurries elsewhere tonight and through the day tomorrow. Snow amounts are expected to be light, with trace amounts most areas to maybe a half inch in a few areas. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 Very cold temperatures with life-threatening wind chills are expected through the long term period. Around midnight tonight or shortly thereafter is when we see the beginning of the life threatening wind chills. Within the Warning area, wind chills of 40 to 50 below are expected during the overnight and morning hours late Friday night through Tuesday morning. During the afternoon hours each day wind chills may only improve to around 25 below zero, thus dangerous to life- threatening wind chills are expected through the entire upcoming weekend. Areas to the south, will likely see wind chills from 30 to 40 below zero. There are some indications that Warning criteria wind chills may make it as far south as Burleigh County and thus an expansion of the Warning may be warranted. Across the Advisory area wind chills will improve to below Advisory criteria at times in the afternoons, but may still not see wind chills above 10 to 15 below zero. Dangerous to life-threatening wind chills are expected across all of North Dakota, not just the west and central, and even most of Minnesota and Montana. If you have travel plans carry a winter survival kit in your vehicle. This is one of those times when it really could save your life, if you become stranded. Just because road conditions could be okay, doesn't mean you couldn't have car trouble. Overall the weather pattern remains quite stagnant through the middle part of next week with no significant storm systems, just hit and miss light snow and very cold temperatures and dangerous to life-threatening wind chills. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 553 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 Mainly VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. High clouds will continue to move into the area through the evening, with scattered snow showers possible in the southwest tonight. Breezy northwesterly winds may lead to some blowing snow around the KJMS terminal. Winds will lessen toward the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ017>020-031>037-042-045>048-050-051. Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009>013- 021>023-025. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Tuesday for NDZ040-041-043-044. && UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...MJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 551 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-070000- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster- 551 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Life-threatening wind chills to 50 below zero are expected to arrive tonight. A Wind Chill Warning is in effect tonight through Tuesday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Life threatening wind chills to 50 below zero are likely through at least Tuesday morning, and possibly continuing into Wednesday. A Wind Chill Warning remains in effect through Tuesday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-070000- McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton- Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux- Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 551 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 /451 PM MST Fri Feb 5 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Dangerous wind chills to 40 below zero are expected to arrive tonight. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect tonight through Tuesday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Dangerous wind chills to 40 below zero are likely through at least Tuesday morning, and possibly continuing into Wednesday. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MJ
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
36 extreme cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 60 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
Wind chill values dipped to around 50 below zero.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 945261, 945262, 945263, 945264, 945265, 945267, 945268, 945270, 945271, 945272, 945273, 945274, 945275, 945276, 945278, 945279, 945280, 945281, 945282, 945283, 945284, 945285, 945286, 945287, 945288, 945289, 945291, 945292, 945293, 945294, 945295, 945296, 945297, 945298, 945299, 945300.