High Wind in Nevada, February 5, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
146 AM PST Fri Feb 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy to windy today, with strongest winds in
northern Elko County. There may also be a few snow showers in
northern Elko County. Otherwise, fair weather is expected through
the weekend, with warming temperatures and continued afternoon
breezes in northeastern Nevada.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday afternoon

Upper ridging in the eastern Pacific will keep Nevada in a
northwest flow through the weekend. A shortwave brushes very
northeastern Elko county today and a few snow showers are
possible there, mainly close to the Idaho/Utah border with the
Jarbidge/Independence Range possibly seeing light snow
accumulations. Road impacts are not expected with any snow shower
likely melting on roads. Winds will be the main story today as
much of northern and central Nevada will see elevated winds this
afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for northern Elko
County, as a 50kt 700 mb jet traverses the area. Southeastern
Elko County, especially around the Wendover area, look a little
more borderline for receiving advisory level winds. Only a few EC
ensemble members indicate winds reaching criteria and guidance is
borderline as well, but opted to issue the advisory there as well
since that strong of a jet should be able to produce at least 1
hour of 30 mph sustained and/or 45 mph gusts. Tonopah looks likely
to stay under criteria, so just left the Special Weather
Statement in effect there which was issued by the previous shift.
Winds will quickly taper off this evening and any shower threat
will also end. Highs will mainly be in the 40's.

Otherwise fair weather is expected this weekend with warming
temperatures into the 40's and 50's with lows in the mid teens to
mid 20's. There will be some afternoon breezes both days,
actually breezy to windy in northeastern Nevada, but not as strong
as today and will remain below advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday.

Model agreement continues to push a flat ridge well into Monday,
with more of a northwesterly flow over the state for a majority of
next week. The trough originally seen brushing the state Tuesday
has deteriorated into more of a minor activity event within the
recent model runs. Meanwhile, the agreement between models is
still not all there on the secondary trough set to pass sometime
mid-week. Current runs of the ECMWF set the trough to dig further
south than the latest GFS runs. As for guidance, there is little
to no precipitation expected from the weak activity Monday into
Tuesday, with only some of the northern mountains of Humboldt and
Elko counties having any possibility of light showers. Breezy
conditions for Monday afternoon are still in play with the
tightening of the upper level gradients and good northwesterly
flow seen in the recent model runs. However, no significant
precipitation is expected form the mid-week system as current
guidance leaning towards light showers in the mountains. For now,
look forward to warm afternoon temperatures in the 40s to 50s
across the Nevada, and cold overnight temperatures in the teens to
20s.

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.AVIATION...Incoming system will produce clouds in the Interstate
80 TAFs with some breezy fields at KBAM and KEKO. Windy at KELY
and especially KTPH. KEKO may drop to low VFR with cig close to
BKN030 at times. Some mountain obscuration likely at KEKO and
KBAM, less likely at KWMC.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PST this evening
for Northern Elko County-Southeastern Elko County.

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