Montana, 2021

High Wind in Montana, November 28 to 30, 2021

November 28 to 30, 2021 · NWS TFX · 10 events in 10 counties and zones

Strong West to northwesterly flow aloft persisted through the end of November as a series of shortwaves help transfer these winds to the surface. H700 winds gusted over 75 kts at times and these magnitudes were realized at the surface for locations along the Rocky Mountain Front.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
10

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

Strong West to northwesterly flow aloft persisted through the end of November as a series of shortwaves help transfer these winds to the surface. H700 winds gusted over 75 kts at times and these magnitudes were realized at the surface for locations along the Rocky Mountain Front. Wind damage was reported, especially in the Browning and East Glacier areas. There were also wildfires with this event, but this activity mostly occurred and will be recorded with December's records.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 28, 4:50 AM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 28, 4:50 AM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
450 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong southwest winds will spread over much of north central and
central Montana this morning, with the potential for extreme winds
on the Rocky Mountain Front. Lesser, but still gusty winds are
expected in the southwest. Overall, winds should decrease tonight
and remain fairly light into Monday. However, moisture in the flow
aloft will keep a chance of precipitation in the mountains. Winds
will likely increase again Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly
becoming strong on Wednesday once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tonight... The main concern for this period
continues to be the likelihood of strong southwest winds across
north central and central Montana, with less intense winds in
southwest Montana. Therefore, the High Wind Warnings for these
areas remain in effect through this evening. Forecast models
continue to show low- to- mid level winds up to and just above
ridge top level (in the 850-700 mb layer) remaining mostly in the
45 to 60 kt range, which will likely spread winds of 30 to 40 mph
with gusts to 65 mph over most of the plains. However, a strong
pressure gradient is forecast to develop along the Rocky Mountain
Front with ridge top winds (around 700 mb) reaching between 80 and
95 kts at times between 11 am and 5 pm. These winds would produce
gusts of mostly 80 to 90 mph, but gusts could exceed 100 mph at
times at some locations along the Front, where tree and property
damage with isolated power outages are all quite possible. These
winds will likely cause areas of reduced visibility in blowing
dust as well, as the topsoil across the plains remains very dry
and loose. Winds in the southwest will likely gust between 25 to
40 mph at times, mainly during the afternoon. Overall, the winds
aloft and the surface pressure gradient will both weaken
overnight, allowing surface winds to decrease.

Otherwise, areas of mid- and high-level cloudiness will move over
the area today, but a disturbance in the flow aloft will bring
areas of rain and snow to the mountains of the Rocky Mountain
Front, mainly tonight, where 2 to 5 inches of snow may accumulate
above 7000 feet. Temperatures today and tonight will be up to 20
degrees above normal, which will approach record highs for this
date for many locations. However, these warm, dry, and windy
conditions will increase fire weather concerns (please see FIRE
WEATHER section for details).

Monday through Wednesday... The aforementioned disturbance will
move southeast through the forecast area on Monday, spreading the
chance for mainly mountain precipitation into central and
southwest Montana. An additional 2 to 5 inches are possible in
the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front, but the central and
southwest mountains will likely only receive 2 inches or less. The
passage of the disturbance will help cool temperatures about 10
degrees from those today for both Monday and Tuesday. Winds aloft
will strengthen Tuesday into Wednesday with a strengthening
surface pressure gradient, which will cause winds to increase once
again, especially over the plains. This setup looks very similar
to today's, so have increased winds somewhat from what the
National Blend of Models (NBM) is forecasting, but if this trend
continues, they may need to be increased further, possibly causing
another high wind event. Otherwise, the flow aloft will continue
to move moisture over the area, keeping a chance of precipitation
in the mountains. Temperatures will also warm back up to around 20
degrees above normal by Wednesday.

Thursday through next Sunday... The jet stream starts to gradually
shift south of the area through this period, allowing a series of
weak disturbances with associated Canadian cold fronts to move
through the area. This will likely bring cooler temperatures with
more unsettled weather into next weekend. However, individual
forecast models differ on the timing of the best potential for
precipitation, so will maintain the NBM's forecast solution of the
best chance for precipitation Friday into Saturday and look to
fine-tune the forecast closer to the event. Temperatures should
cool from around 15 degrees above normal on Thursday to between 5
and 10 degrees below normal by Sunday.
-Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
450 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 (28/12Z TAF period)

VFR conditions will continue through at least the next 24 hours
across north central and southwest Montana.

The main concern for this period will be strong southwest winds.
The westerly flow aloft will increase through 18Z and remain
strong through 00Z. This will cause widespread mountain wave
turbulence and low level wind shear for much of the period, and this
weather pattern could also produce rotor winds close to the Rocky
Mountain Front. Surface winds will similarly increase through 18Z,
especially over the plains, where gusts of 40 to 50 kt will be
common, but gusts will likely be in the 60 to 80 kt range closer to
the Rocky Mountain Front. Winds will become similarly gusty in the
southwest valleys through 18Z, but gusts will mostly remain in the
25 to 40 kt range. Winds will start to decrease after 00Z, but only
slightly. These winds will also likely cause areas of blowing dust
over the plains, which may cause minor reduction in visibility.

Otherwise, moisture in the flow aloft will keep mid- and high- level
cloudiness over the area. Mid-level clouds will be more widespread
along and west of the Continental Divide south into southwest
Montana, which may obscure some mountain tops. Clouds will then
decrease and be mostly high-level cloudiness after 18Z.
-Coulston

KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume next
spring.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong southwest downslope winds will help warm temperatures up to
20 degrees above normal over the plains of north central Montana
today, which will cause afternoon relative humidity to fall as
low as 25 percent in some areas. This combination of dry and windy
conditions will cause increased fire weather concerns, but the
likelihood that humidity will remain above 20 percent will keep
the area from reaching off-season red flag conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  45  54  37 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  59  41  50  34 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  54  34 /  10   0  10  10
BZN  61  34  52  28 /  10   0   0  20
WYS  42  20  40  20 /  10   0   0  20
DLN  58  32  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  65  40  55  32 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  62  41  54  32 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to midnight MST tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...
Hill...Liberty...Toole.

High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight Cascade...Eastern
Glacier...Judith Basin...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 28, 2:52 AM MST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 AM MST SUN NOV 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS       47.47N 111.38W
11/28/2021  M55 MPH          CASCADE            MT   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KGTF GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

&&

PIERCE
Local storm report, Nov 28, 2:53 AM MST, 3 hours 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 AM MST SUN NOV 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE BROWNING           48.54N 112.98W
11/28/2021  M61 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTBWG BROWNING (MT DOT).

&&

PIERCE
Local storm report, Nov 28, 4:40 AM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 AM MST SUN NOV 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.36N 113.11W
11/28/2021  M81 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DCRM8 DEEP CREEK RAWS.

&&

PIERCE
Local storm report, Nov 28, 5:22 AM MST, 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
522 AM MST SUN NOV 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/28/2021  M85 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTBRN TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE
            (MT DOT).

&&

BRUSDA
Local storm report, Nov 28, 5:25 AM MST, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MST SUN NOV 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE BROWNING           48.54N 112.98W
11/28/2021  M68 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTBWG BROWNING (MT DOT).

&&

BRUSDA
Local storm report, Nov 28, 5:41 AM MST, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
541 AM MST SUN NOV 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.36N 113.11W
11/28/2021  M101 MPH         GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DCRM8 DEEP CREEK RAWS.

&&

PIERCE

Event by event

10 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, North Rocky Mountain Front

When
November 28, 5:54 AM MST
Where
North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Measured
78 kt (90 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways

MDT Two Medicine Bridge station measured a 78 kt (90 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Toole

When
November 28, 11:20 AM MST
Where
Toole forecast zone
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

Shelby Airport measured a 56 kt (64 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Liberty

When
November 28, 4:31 PM MST
Where
Liberty forecast zone
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

Chester station measured a 51 kt (59 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front

When
November 28, 7:15 PM MST
Where
Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Measured
72 kt (83 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

Dellwo station measured a 72 kt (83 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Eastern Glacier

When
November 28, 7:43 PM MST
Where
Eastern Glacier forecast zone
Measured
64 kt (74 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS

KCTB measured a 64 kt (74 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gusts.

High Wind, Chouteau

When
November 28, 10:52 PM MST
Where
Chouteau forecast zone
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways

MDT Loma station measured a 51 kt (59 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Cascade

When
November 30, 7:30 PM MST
Where
Cascade forecast zone
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

Cascade station measured a 56 kt (64 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Hill

When
November 30, 10:00 PM MST
Where
Hill forecast zone
Measured
55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

Goldstone station measured a 55 kt (63 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Judith Basin

When
November 30, 11:54 PM MST
Where
Judith Basin forecast zone
Measured
55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways

MDT Geyser station measured a 55 kt (63 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

High Wind, Fergus

When
November 30, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Fergus forecast zone
Measured
54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Reported by
AWOS

Delta station measured a 54 kt (62 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, November 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 994381, 994389, 994440, 994386, 994388, 994443, 994391, 994395, 994397, 994403.