NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 28, 4:50 AM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 28, 4:50 AM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
450 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong southwest winds will spread over much of north central and
central Montana this morning, with the potential for extreme winds
on the Rocky Mountain Front. Lesser, but still gusty winds are
expected in the southwest. Overall, winds should decrease tonight
and remain fairly light into Monday. However, moisture in the flow
aloft will keep a chance of precipitation in the mountains. Winds
will likely increase again Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly
becoming strong on Wednesday once again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight... The main concern for this period
continues to be the likelihood of strong southwest winds across
north central and central Montana, with less intense winds in
southwest Montana. Therefore, the High Wind Warnings for these
areas remain in effect through this evening. Forecast models
continue to show low- to- mid level winds up to and just above
ridge top level (in the 850-700 mb layer) remaining mostly in the
45 to 60 kt range, which will likely spread winds of 30 to 40 mph
with gusts to 65 mph over most of the plains. However, a strong
pressure gradient is forecast to develop along the Rocky Mountain
Front with ridge top winds (around 700 mb) reaching between 80 and
95 kts at times between 11 am and 5 pm. These winds would produce
gusts of mostly 80 to 90 mph, but gusts could exceed 100 mph at
times at some locations along the Front, where tree and property
damage with isolated power outages are all quite possible. These
winds will likely cause areas of reduced visibility in blowing
dust as well, as the topsoil across the plains remains very dry
and loose. Winds in the southwest will likely gust between 25 to
40 mph at times, mainly during the afternoon. Overall, the winds
aloft and the surface pressure gradient will both weaken
overnight, allowing surface winds to decrease.
Otherwise, areas of mid- and high-level cloudiness will move over
the area today, but a disturbance in the flow aloft will bring
areas of rain and snow to the mountains of the Rocky Mountain
Front, mainly tonight, where 2 to 5 inches of snow may accumulate
above 7000 feet. Temperatures today and tonight will be up to 20
degrees above normal, which will approach record highs for this
date for many locations. However, these warm, dry, and windy
conditions will increase fire weather concerns (please see FIRE
WEATHER section for details).
Monday through Wednesday... The aforementioned disturbance will
move southeast through the forecast area on Monday, spreading the
chance for mainly mountain precipitation into central and
southwest Montana. An additional 2 to 5 inches are possible in
the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front, but the central and
southwest mountains will likely only receive 2 inches or less. The
passage of the disturbance will help cool temperatures about 10
degrees from those today for both Monday and Tuesday. Winds aloft
will strengthen Tuesday into Wednesday with a strengthening
surface pressure gradient, which will cause winds to increase once
again, especially over the plains. This setup looks very similar
to today's, so have increased winds somewhat from what the
National Blend of Models (NBM) is forecasting, but if this trend
continues, they may need to be increased further, possibly causing
another high wind event. Otherwise, the flow aloft will continue
to move moisture over the area, keeping a chance of precipitation
in the mountains. Temperatures will also warm back up to around 20
degrees above normal by Wednesday.
Thursday through next Sunday... The jet stream starts to gradually
shift south of the area through this period, allowing a series of
weak disturbances with associated Canadian cold fronts to move
through the area. This will likely bring cooler temperatures with
more unsettled weather into next weekend. However, individual
forecast models differ on the timing of the best potential for
precipitation, so will maintain the NBM's forecast solution of the
best chance for precipitation Friday into Saturday and look to
fine-tune the forecast closer to the event. Temperatures should
cool from around 15 degrees above normal on Thursday to between 5
and 10 degrees below normal by Sunday.
-Coulston
&&
.AVIATION...
450 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 (28/12Z TAF period)
VFR conditions will continue through at least the next 24 hours
across north central and southwest Montana.
The main concern for this period will be strong southwest winds.
The westerly flow aloft will increase through 18Z and remain
strong through 00Z. This will cause widespread mountain wave
turbulence and low level wind shear for much of the period, and this
weather pattern could also produce rotor winds close to the Rocky
Mountain Front. Surface winds will similarly increase through 18Z,
especially over the plains, where gusts of 40 to 50 kt will be
common, but gusts will likely be in the 60 to 80 kt range closer to
the Rocky Mountain Front. Winds will become similarly gusty in the
southwest valleys through 18Z, but gusts will mostly remain in the
25 to 40 kt range. Winds will start to decrease after 00Z, but only
slightly. These winds will also likely cause areas of blowing dust
over the plains, which may cause minor reduction in visibility.
Otherwise, moisture in the flow aloft will keep mid- and high- level
cloudiness over the area. Mid-level clouds will be more widespread
along and west of the Continental Divide south into southwest
Montana, which may obscure some mountain tops. Clouds will then
decrease and be mostly high-level cloudiness after 18Z.
-Coulston
KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume next
spring.
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong southwest downslope winds will help warm temperatures up to
20 degrees above normal over the plains of north central Montana
today, which will cause afternoon relative humidity to fall as
low as 25 percent in some areas. This combination of dry and windy
conditions will cause increased fire weather concerns, but the
likelihood that humidity will remain above 20 percent will keep
the area from reaching off-season red flag conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 63 45 54 37 / 0 10 10 10
CTB 59 41 50 34 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 63 41 54 34 / 10 0 10 10
BZN 61 34 52 28 / 10 0 0 20
WYS 42 20 40 20 / 10 0 0 20
DLN 58 32 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 65 40 55 32 / 10 0 0 10
LWT 62 41 54 32 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to midnight MST tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...
Hill...Liberty...Toole.
High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight Cascade...Eastern
Glacier...Judith Basin...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
&&
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls