Heavy rain of 5 to 10 inches caused flooding on many rivers, including the Bogachiel, Nooksack, Samish, Skagit, Skokomish, Stillaguamish Rivers. There was urban and small stream flooding as well.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
Heavy rain of 5 to 10 inches caused flooding on many rivers, including the Bogachiel, Nooksack, Samish, Skagit, Skokomish, Stillaguamish Rivers. There was urban and small stream flooding as well. The heavy rain also triggered landslides throughout the area. Significant flooding on the Nooksack River, for the second time this month, overflowed at the City of Everson to the degree that flood waters flowed north along an old Nooksack floodway and Johnson Creek where it flooded the cities of Everson and Nooksack, WA, then combined with flooding from the Sumas River and flooded the City of Sumas, WA. |Damages are reported and estimated; not all damages have been identified. Crop damages are unknown. Much of the reported damage amounts were for the episodes in November and some of the amounts for this episode were an estimated proportion for the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 28, 3:12 AM PST, 4 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
312 AM PST Sun Nov 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS...Persistent rainfall will continue across Western
Washington through today, yielding river and aerial flooding, as
well as the threat for landslides. Following additional rainfall
during the day Monday, another AR will reach Western Washington by
midweek bringing additional excessive rainfall to the region.
Drier and cooler conditions possible Friday into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...The persistent moderate
rainband has shifted northward with the warm front at this hour
with the heaviest rain occuring north of the border in SW British
Columbia. That said, rainfall continues across the northwestern
Olympic Peninsula, as well as northern Skagit and Whatcom counties
at this hour. In the past 6 hours, points in these locations have
seen anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with amounts
already in the 2 to 3 inch range at elevation in the past 24
hours. Rainfall efficiency remains high at this hour in this band
as a tongue of PWAT values ranging from 1 to 1.25" is draped
across these areas. The potential for impacts associated with
areal flooding and landslides will remain high across these areas
through much of the day. Excess runoff is already causing rivers
in these areas to rise, with additional rainfall expected through
this afternoon.
To the south of this corridor, rainfall has tapered off at this
hour, with higher winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Southerly
winds will generally gust between 30 to 40 mph at times across Puget
Sound, with a few isolated gusts to 45 mph possible - particularly
from the Admiralty Inlet area, Whidbey Island and into coastal
portions of Snohomish County. Expect winds to remain elevated
through the mid-morning hours before steady rain returns to the area.
Confidence is high in the band of persistent rainfall sagging
southward across the region, starting after daybreak and continuing
through the day as the cold front pushes southeastward across the
region. Most individual members of the HREF stall the front
somewhere between Tacoma and Chehalis this evening with steady
rain remaining focused in this area. Short range ensemble guidance
shows a shortwave trough axis swinging through the region between
12 and 18Z and amplifying the band of rain on Monday before rain
tapers off Monday evening. As a result, QPF in the central and
southern Cascades is higher on Monday with the forecast package
tonight. Given the environment in place, expect short-fused urban
and small stream flooding to be a threat along with landslides and
rising rivers through the day. See the hydrology section below
for specific details.
Also associated with the aforementioned trough will be the potential
for an isolated thunderstorm or two across Whatcom and Skagit
Counties. Mid-level (H500) temperatures will cool to around -25
degrees C as the trough axis swings through. This, coupled with a
speed max crossing the region will provide an environment capable of
briefly supporting thunder Monday afternoon.
Expect temperatures to remain steady across the region today, with
only minimal dynamic cooling in areas of rain as the front comes
through. High temperature readings have likely already occurred this
morning as warm air advection was still notable at midnight and has
since leveled off. Temperatures will remain relatively warm and
steady on Monday, with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low
50s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Wet and active weather
will persist through the long term period as several systems will
bring additional rainfall and periods of gusty winds to Western
Washington that will exacerbate impacts region wide. Another AR
event of similar strength as the one currently affecting the
region will reach the area on Tuesday with rainfall persisting
through Thursday. New ensemble guidance brings the plume of
moisture further south than the 00Z and 12Z guidance from
yesterday. Freezing levels look similar as well - generally
ranging from 9,000 to 10,000 feet at event onset before settling
between 8,000 to 9,000 feet through the event. Rainfall amounts
look similar to the current event, with the interior lowlands
generally seeing 1- 2" of rainfall, the Olympics and
Central/Northern Cascades seeing 2- 4", locally up to 6" in spots,
and the Olympic coast seeing 1-3", with the highest totals on the
north coast. This additional rainfall will cause another response
on area rivers, with additional flooding possible. Saturated
soils will also keep the threat for landslides and aerial flooding
high through this event.
As has been the case with this system, a period of rain shadowing
will be possible across the central and northern Puget Sound, which
would promote a period of gusty winds. Given saturated ground, more
notable impacts with respect to power outages and tree damage are
not out of the question. This will also likely add extra pressure to
area bluffs, potentially being a trigger for landslides.
Current model guidance has precipitation tapering off on Thursday
with Western Washington remaining in a quasi-zonal flow regime with
high pressure remaining stout over the southwest coast. This will
keep the door open for additional systems bringing periods of rain
Friday into next weekend.
Temperatures wise, expect 50s for highs and upper 40s for lows
through Thursday before temperatures cool into the 30s and 40s for
the weekend.
Pullin
&&
.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft across the region today. The warm
front is across the region, with plenty of low ceilings and reduced
visibility in clouds and rain, though VFR conditions have developed
in the clearing in the warm sector of the frontal system. Cold front
will push through today with heavy rain that will reduce
visibilities and lower ceilings again today. Breezy southerly winds
early this morning, but winds ease considerably behind the cold
front later today.
KSEA...Expect continued gusty southerly surface winds through the
morning. Light rain may continue at times with ceilings mostly
around 2500-3000 feet, though expect some fluctuation as main front
remains north. Cold front slowly returns with steady rain and low
MVFR to IFR ceilings around 19-20z into the evening. Moist and
stable air mass likely maintains MVFR ceilings through tonight,
though winds ease late afternoon.
Cullen
&&
.MARINE...Winds will peak in the next few hours, with trailing
small craft advisories over most waters into the afternoon due to
winds (and seas over the coastal waters). Winds will ease later
Sunday with a break in between systems for Monday. Another frontal
system brings a return of advisory strength winds to most waters on
Tuesday. Winds will be lighter Wednesday and Thursday with weak
onshore flow. Seas remain 8 to 11 feet over the coastal waters much
of today, dominated by a short-period component. Seas then gradually
subside to 5-6 feet early in the week, but will likely again build
above 10 feet Tuesday evening behind the next front as a larger west
swell arrives.
Cullen
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A wet and warm frontal system will continue to bring
rain to the area through the day today, possibly into early Monday.
River flooding remains an issue into the start of the new week =
especially for rivers flowing out of the Olympics and the northern
and central Washington Cascades. A flood watch remains in effect for
much of the area, with flood warnings also in effect for several
locations. The extent of expected river flooding varies throughout
the region, with minor to moderate flooding the general rule with
major flooding possible at a few locations. The current forecast
continues to reflect most locations cresting sometime today -
however - the Skagit River at Mount Vernon and the Nooksack River
at Ferndale will likely not crest until sometime much later -
likely Monday afternoon.
A second frontal system will affect the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, and although confidence is still lower with this system -
ensembles now suggesting a shift in the precipitation further south.
This scenario starting to look very similar to what is expected
through the day today - that is, the heaviest precipitation expected
over the Olympics, and North and Central Washington Cascades. This
certainly would complicate the impacts on area rivers as it would be
following on the heels of a very similar event. The ongoing
precipitation will keep the risk of landslides elevated well into
next week.
Cook
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Admiralty Inlet Area-
Bellevue and Vicinity-Cascades of Snohomish and King
Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Central
Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de
Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis
Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-Seattle and Vicinity-
Western Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-
Western Whatcom County.
PZ...Gale Warning until 8 AM PST this morning for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning until 5 AM PST early this morning for Admiralty
Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for Puget Sound and
Hood Canal.
&&
www.weather.gov/seattleThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding of minor category occurred on the Skagit and Samish Rivers, as well as other streams and urban areas.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood, Skagit | 2021-11-28 | 74 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 993339, 993341, 993338.