Deep tropical moisture over the region with ample daytime heating allowed for widespread rainfall across the region. This combined with higher than normal high tides produced flooding in Miami Beach.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Deep tropical moisture over the region with ample daytime heating allowed for widespread rainfall across the region. This combined with higher than normal high tides produced flooding in Miami Beach.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 6:44 AM EST, 3 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 744 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 .AVIATION... Deep tropical moisture remain in place over South Florida today which will lead to showers and some thunderstorms over the taf sites mainly between 15Z and 00Z today. Therefore, SHRA along with VCTS will continue at all of the taf sites today with a southerly wind flow. The only exception is at KAPF where it will be more southwest, and at KPBI, KFLL where it will be between 160 and 170 degrees. The ceiling and vis should remain in VFR conditions but could fall into MVFR or even IFR conditions with the showers and storms. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ ..Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible through the Weekend... DISCUSSION... Today and Tonight... A mid to upper low pressure area will pinwheel about the eastern Gulf Coast states as troughing aloft extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile an area of disturbed weather spreading across our area will continue moving north during the period. Deep moisture is already in place, as noted by the precipitable water value of 2.07 inches sampled via the 02.00z MFL sounding. The primary weather related concern through tonight remains the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Several parameters are supportive of heavy rain potential, including weak Corfidi vectors (averaging around 5 kt today), a deep warm cloud layer, and 850 mb moisture flux convergence. This suggests slow storm motions and efficient warm rain processes should prevail. With easterly low-level flow this morning (veering to southeasterly later this afternoon), along with expected outflow boundaries, there may be a threat for Atlantic coastal convergence and/or urban nuisance flooding for the metro areas due to the slow draining of water from impervious surfaces. Forecast rain totals for today and tonight average between 0.5 and 1.75 inches among the global forecast model guidance, with the greatest amounts targeted towards coastal Palm Beach and Broward Counties. Some higher totals are also possible along the Gulf coast (closer to the upper trough), but there is greater uncertainty here due to the larger spread in model data. The convection allowing mesoscale models suggest that localized training of showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavier totals than advertised above, but there is disagreement in the timing and placement of these features. As such, careful attention to the mesoscale environment will be necessary today to pinpoint areas where heavier rain bands may set up. The reasonable worst case scenario (90th percentile or 1 and 10 chance) seems to represent this well, with the localized possibility of 2.5 to 3.5 inches primarily confined to eastern portions of our area closer to the Atlantic coast. The observed higher than average tide values along with a new moon phase suggest that extra attention is necessary for coastal areas as these higher tides may retard the ability for heavier rainfall to drain efficiently. Given the lack of widespread antecedent rainfall today, flash flood guidance values generally above 3 inches, and low confidence in the widespread nature of heavier rain totals, confidence is too low for the issuance of a flood watch at this juncture. This could change depending upon how precipitation trends evolve through today, so stay tuned. The projected low-level shear values among the deterministic model guidance have decreased somewhat from yesterday, with 0-3 km magnitudes now peaking around 20 knots this evening. Mid-level temperatures should also continue warming as a tropical airmass overspreads the area. This suggests that any severe weather threat should remain rather limited over land, but we'll still need to keep a keen eye on the Atlantic and Gulf waters for waterspout potential into tonight. Temperatures should be a little below normal given the expected precipitation and cloud cover. Saturday through Sunday night... The closed low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually devolve into an open-wave trough whose axis should remain in place to our west. South to southwest steering flow will maintain the deep layer moisture plume across our area, resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. While a few stronger storms are possible, the primary forecast concern is again flooding potential. Forecast rain totals during this period are in the 0.5 to 2 inch range, with the greatest amounts centered over Palm Beach and Broward Counties. A reasonable worst case scenario (90th percentile) also targets this area as seeing the potential for localized amounts in excess of 3 inches. Once again the mesoscale details should play a role in where any heavier bands of showers and storms develop, but the steering flow direction suggests that the east coast metro areas may once again be at risk for localized nuisance flooding. As mentioned previously, the higher than average tides and new moon phase could enhance the potential for minor coastal flooding especially if heavy rain falls during the high tide portion of the cycle. Monday through Thursday... The upper trough will gradually weaken and allow high pressure to build back into our area by mid week. Low-level winds will shift from southerly to easterly as mid-level tropospheric moisture decreases. Thus scattered to numerous thunderstorms early in the week should gradually decrease in coverage while being more regulated by the sea breeze circulation patterns. This suggests that the best coverage should begin shifting towards interior Southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region by mid to late week. Seasonal temperatures are expected. MARINE... East to southeast winds today should become more south to southwesterly this weekend. Stronger wind surges could bring bouts of cautionary conditions to the Atlantic waters today. Gusty winds, locally higher seas, heavy rain, waterspouts, and lightning are all threats from thunderstorms through the weekend. AVIATION... Scattered to numerous SHRA are beginning to work their way into the east coast this morning, and will gradually become embedded with TSRA over the next few hours. All terminals can expect generally VFR to MVFR conditions through the TAF cycle, with brief bouts of IFR possible within heavier SHRA/TSRA. Easterly winds are expected to become more southeasterly after 13Z for the east coast sites and south-southeasterly at KAPF. BEACH FORECAST... Higher than normal tides associated with the new moon may inhibit the ability for rainfall to quickly drain from coastal areas and therefore some minor coastal flooding is possible along area beaches, docks, boat ramps, and other low-lying and flood prone coastal areas into this weekend. There is a moderate rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches today. HYDROLOGY... The combination of widespread rainfall and above normal tides may bring the potential for localized flooding and/or minor coastal flooding tonight through weekend. At this time, total rainfall accumulation of 2 to 5 inches are possible over southern Florida through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Confidence remains too low for the issuance of a flood watch, but conditions will be monitored today should confidence in a widespread flooding risk increase. Please see the current Hydrologic Outlook (ESFMFL) for details regarding potential flooding threats over south Florida. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 85 78 89 77 / 80 60 70 30 Fort Lauderdale 85 79 88 78 / 80 60 70 30 Miami 85 79 89 78 / 70 60 70 30 Naples 83 78 88 78 / 80 70 70 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && DISCUSSION...34/SPM MARINE...34/SPM AVIATION...54/BNB BEACH FORECAST...34/SPM HYDROLOGY...34/SPM
Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 320 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 021930- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 320 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 ...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Storms across South Florida... ...Flooding possible with Periods of Heavier Rainfall... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today across South Florida given increased tropical moisture in place. The main threats from this activity will be gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Waterspouts: There is a potential for at least isolated waterspouts across all South Florida waters today and tonight. The potential for waterspouts will be highest across the local Atlantic waters. Wind: Gusty showers and storms will be capable of producing winds in excess of 40 mph to 50 mph, especially this afternoon and evening. Flooding: Periods of heavy rain are expected across South Florida today and tonight. Areas that see several rounds of rain, or high rainfall rates may experience ponding of water in low-lying and poorly drained areas. In addition, higher than normal tides with the New Moon will also limit the ability for any heavy rain that does fall to drain from areas near the coast. Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY Enhanced tropical moisture in concert with an upper level system over the Gulf of Mexico will create a continuing potential for heavy rainfall and a potential for flooding across South Florida. Beyond this weekend, scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected. Frequent lightning and strong gusty winds will be the primary hazards with these storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report high winds and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of streets and sidewalks in Miami beach reported by several local news outlets. main streets were Indian Creek Drive and Collins avenue in the area of 31st street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848290.