Winter Storm in Texas, November 11 to 12, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
537 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
IFR/LIFR conditions expected over the next several hours, as the
winter storm moves into the Panhandles. Right now light snow
reported at DHT and GUY. Band of precip from Dalhart to Dumas
moving from the southwest to northeast. More bands expected over
the next 12 to 18 hours, and will impact all TAF sites. Snow onset
for AMA looks to be around 02z.  Cigs expected to be in the
300-500ft range for the majority of the winter event. Vis expected
to fall to 1/2 mile, especially under moderate to heavy snow.
Winds will be mainly out of the north in the 15 to 20kt range,
gusting to 30kts at times.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 303 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018/

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday...

Forecast remains on track for a banded snowfall event over the
Panhandles. Snow production will focus on a frontogenetic 700mb
boundary with weakly stable to slightly unstable lapse rates above
- with progged temperatures in the dendritic growth range - will
drive robust snowfall rates during the overnight hours. Where
exactly this band ends up remains uncertain but guidance has slowly
converged onto roughly an Oldham-Beaver county axis. Have gone ahead
and focused the Winter Storm Warning around this axis as snowfall
rates may exceed 6 inches. Additionally, tight surface pressure
gradient with stout CAA aloft will drive breezy northeast winds at
the surface, leading to patchy blowing snow and low visibilities,
particularly as the snow is falling. So, based on overall potential
impact, leaned forward for the Warning decision for some
borderline counties.

Snow will slowly end Monday, with most accumulating snow ending by
noon as column saturation is lost. Overcast skies and fresh snow
cover will lead to a highs below freezing in most locations.

Ferguson

LONG TERM...Monday Night through Saturday...

Monday night will see clouds begin to clear out, which will make for
a cold night with temps in the teens. As the upper level low pushes
east, Tuesday will see heights rise and temps respond with climbing
back into the upper 30s to lower 40s under clear skies. Most snow
from Sunday night into Monday should melt Tuesday, except for the
places with higher totals which may need an extra day of sunshine on
Wednesday to burn off the man-made piles. The remainder of the work
week looks fairly quiet with temps generally in the 50s.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                26  29  14  38  19 / 100  70   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  26  32  12  38  18 / 100  70   0   0   0
Boise City OK              22  29  14  40  22 /  90  60   0   0   0
Borger TX                  27  32  13  39  19 / 100  70   5   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              27  32  12  39  19 / 100  70   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  26  30  14  38  19 / 100  70   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               28  32  19  40  22 / 100  70   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 24  31  11  38  20 / 100  70   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  26  32  12  40  20 / 100  70   0   0   0
Hereford TX                26  30  14  38  19 / 100  70   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                28  32  13  38  18 / 100  70   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   26  29  13  37  20 / 100  70   5   0   0
Shamrock TX                29  33  19  39  22 / 100  70   5   0   0
Wellington TX              30  35  22  41  24 / 100  70   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for the following
     zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo
     Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...
     Hemphill...Wheeler.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for the following
     zones: Beaver.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

89/77/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
258 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-120900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
258 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Accumulating snowfall is expected across all of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles late this afternoon through Monday morning.
The heaviest snow is expected to occur overnight tonight along
roughly a southwestern Texas Panhandle to eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle axis where 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected with
locally higher amounts possible. Elsewhere, 2 to 4 inches of snow
is expected. Visibility may also be reduced to one mile or less at
times when brisk north winds combine with periods of moderate to
heavy snow. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories
are in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Accumulating snowfall will continue through the early morning
hours and is expected to end by around noon. Temperatures will
likely stay at or below freezing all day Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters and observers are strongly encouraged to relay their
snow reports to the National Weather Service in Amarillo.

APF