A strong upper level storm system and a cold front together produced a round of thunderstorms Sunday night, a few of which produced severe hail over Central Texas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A strong upper level storm system and a cold front together produced a round of thunderstorms Sunday night, a few of which produced severe hail over Central Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 11, 6:37 PM CST, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 637 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018 .AVIATION... 00 UTC TAF Cycle Concerns---Ceiling, wind and precipitation trends at all TAF sites. Low thunder potential at Waco tonight. The main theme over the next 24 to 30 hours at all terminals will be very poor flying conditions. For the Metroplex...the last vestiges of VFR continue to dwindle this evening as low level moistening continues over the next several hours. MVFR will persist at Metroplex TAFs through around 0600 UTC. Thereafter, moistening below FL010 due to persistent precipitation is likely. Despite the increase in precipitation, thunder should remain mostly south of D10 where better instability resides. Persistent IFR to near LIFR cigs are anticipated overnight and into the first half of the day on Monday. MVFR visibility will be the rule, though slightly heavier downpours beneath any showers may result in some IFR visby. At Waco...IFR cigs will become more persistent over the next few hours as showers stream northward with even a few periods of LIFR possible. Instability is building across Central Texas though based on total lightning observations and the current radar presentation, I'm apt to believe that thunder is unlikely. For now, I'll maintain a few hours of VCTS at Waco, but it's possible that thunder will be removed altogether at the 0300 UTC amendments if storm activity is sparse. IFR vis will also be possible at Waco with heavier rain. MVFR cigs are expected to return at all TAF sites late Monday as drier air filters in. If dry air really surges southward, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few sites with cigs above FL020, but at this time, confidence is low in this occurring. Winds at all sites will steadily back to the north through the overnight hours with increasing speeds becoming more likely after daybreak Monday. Sustained wind speeds will exceed 20 knots by noon on Monday with gusts into the 30 to 35 knot range as surface pressures rise rapidly to the west and northwest. There could be some crosswind issues on runways with a 13/31 configuration with these wind gusts. Bain && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018/ Cool and mostly cloudy conditions persist across almost the entire area this afternoon with the lone exception being our far northwest counties. Some peeks of sun in that area have allowed temperatures to climb to near 60 degrees while the rest of the area remains in the upper 40s and 50s. Conditions will deteriorate later tonight ahead of a powerful upper trough and cold front. Low level warm moist advection will increase across North and Central Texas this evening allowing cloud heights to lower and scattered showers to increase in coverage. The initial area of showers and thunderstorms ongoing across our far southeastern counties will likely lift off to the northeast through the evening, however additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will continue to develop and overspread North Texas during the overnight hours. PoPs will really ramp up across the region after 10 pm or so. Mid level lapse rates will initially be fairly steep, although overall instability is generally weak. The strongest updrafts could result in a few strong thunderstorms with marginally severe hail being the main threat. Otherwise, the overall severe threat appears low at this time. By late tonight as the upper trough to the west gets closer, stronger forcing for ascent will arrive. The coupling of a subtropical jet streak into the strong polar jet overnight should keep most of North Texas and the Southern Plains in a broad area of strong upper divergence. Precipitation coverage should be highest during this time into the early morning hours on Monday. Monday will be a nasty day with temperatures falling into the mid 30s by afternoon and gusty north winds. Rain will initially be ongoing but should taper off from west to east through the late morning hours. Nonetheless, with north winds around 20 mph, it will feel much colder. Wind chills will drop into the low to mid 20s by afternoon. Concerning the wintry precipitation potential... This type of pattern usually brings the strong forcing and cold air, but is notorious for drying out before thermal profiles become sufficiently cold for snow. Latest model guidance suggests that this time will be no different, with rain prevailing initially in all locations. Analysis of forecast soundings across the northwest counties show deep moisture persisting through about 8 am, before strong isentropic downglide associated with the mid level dry slot surges into the area. This should effectively eliminate any potential for snowfall. While confidence is fairly high that rain will generally prevail, we'll keep a rain/snow mix in across the northwest counties for a few hours into the afternoon, when column temperatures will be sufficiently cold for snow. If there is any lingering moisture, then a few flakes can't be ruled out. Otherwise, precipitation should end from west to east quickly by early afternoon. Some lingering drizzle or light rain may persist east of I-35 into the evening. Temperatures will continue to drop into the late evening with most of our counties at or below freezing by midnight. Lows will drop into the low-mid 20s across the northwest with mid 20s to near 30 degrees elsewhere. Despite some freezing temperatures a few nights ago, we'll go ahead and issue a freeze warning areawide for Monday night as this will definitely be the coldest night of the season. The strongly positively tilted trough will still be to our west on Tuesday with strong forcing for ascent overhead. The tilt of the trough axis however will prevent any wrap around moisture from working to the back side of the trough. This should result in clearing skies and no chance for additional precipitation. It'll still be cold on Tuesday with highs topping out in the lower 40s areawide. A slow warmup is expected through the end of the week with highs in the lower 60s by Friday and no additional rain chances. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 42 43 28 42 27 / 100 100 5 5 0 Waco 46 47 30 45 26 / 100 80 10 5 0 Paris 39 41 28 40 24 / 90 100 5 0 0 Denton 41 42 27 42 24 / 100 100 0 0 0 McKinney 40 42 28 40 25 / 100 100 5 5 0 Dallas 43 44 29 43 28 / 100 100 5 5 0 Terrell 42 43 29 43 26 / 100 100 10 5 0 Corsicana 44 46 29 42 27 / 100 90 20 5 0 Temple 46 49 30 45 26 / 80 70 10 5 0 Mineral Wells 42 43 26 42 24 / 100 90 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 6 PM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && 24/08
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 915 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-130315- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 915 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight, mainly across Central and East Texas. Lightning and small hail will be the primary hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Monday morning. Lightning will continue to be the primary hazard with any storms. In areas north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, snow may mix with the rain Monday afternoon before the precipitation comes to an end. Light snow accumulation on grassy surfaces will be possible, but significant impacts to travel are not anticipated. A widespread freeze is expected Monday night. As many locations have yet to see freezing temperatures this season, a Freeze Warning is in effect for all of North and Central Texas. Another freeze with even colder conditions will occur Tuesday night, with all locations dropping into the 20s for an extended period of time. A third consecutive freeze will follow Wednesday night. These freezes will bring an end to the growing season. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Bain
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
915 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2018
TXZ158>160-120400-
Falls TX-McLennan TX-Bell TX-
915 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2018
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 915 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Belton, moving northeast at 50 mph.
Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Temple, Harker Heights, Belton, McGregor, Nolanville, Morgan's Point
Resort, Salado, Little River-Academy, Lorena, Troy, Bruceville-Eddy
and Moody.
LAT...LON 3105 9764 3128 9750 3132 9742 3136 9745
3151 9736 3129 9700 3093 9745
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 219DEG 42KT 3109 9749
BainThe Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 49 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:23 UTC.
3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter produced pictures of one-inch diameter hail in the city of Morgan's Point, TX.
Broadcast media reported hail slightly larger than quarters in the city of Calvert, TX.
Emergency management reported golf ball sized hail near Oletha, or about 10 miles south of the city of Groesbeck, TX.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 791948, 791950, 791953.