Another round of strong and gusty Santa Ana winds developed across the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Peak north to northeast wind gusts up to 60 MPH were reported.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LOX wrote it up.
Another round of strong and gusty Santa Ana winds developed across the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Peak north to northeast wind gusts up to 60 MPH were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 11, 11:47 AM PST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1147 AM PST Sun Nov 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...11/906 AM.
Low level flow over Southwest California was beginning to shift
back to offshore this morning. These gusty Santa Ana winds will be
similar to the previous event, bringing continued high fire
danger to the area through Tuesday. Light offshore flow with warm
and dry conditions is expected Wednesday through Thursday of this
coming week. The return of the marine layer stratus for coastal
areas is likely late this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...11/913 AM.
***UPDATE***
Today brings the return of Santa Ana winds and Red Flag conditions
to Ventura and Los Angeles Co, with the exception of the Antelope
Valley. Already 25 stations at or near red flag conditions this
morning with several stations experiencing northeasterly winds
gusting higher than 40 mph. The offshore winds should clear smoke
from most areas this morning except for those immediately
downwind of the active fire areas. San Luis Obispo Co will
experience some of the smoke from the NorCal fire. Widespread
afternoon highs in the 70s; 60s inland.
***From Previous Discussion***
The latest fog product imagery indicated mostly clear skies across
the forecast area. Surprisingly, there was a little area of
stratus around Lompoc/Vandenberg AFB this morning, and around San
Luis Obispo where some dense fog was being reported. A bit
surprised stratus has formed with this overall dry atmosphere in
place. However, as the offshore flow increases, there should be
enough drying to have the stratus dissipate later this morning.
Smoke from the "Campfire" near Paradise Ca could continue to
affect the northern portions of the forecast area at times today.
The smoke from the Woolsey Fire will also impact the L.A. and
Ventura Counties early today before the offshore winds blow it all
out to sea once again.
The main story for today will be another prolonged round of Santa
Ana winds developing later this morning and continuing through
Tuesday afternoon. Currently, the winds across the interior
remain relatively calm, but expecting the mountains to shift winds
out of the northeast by 6 am, then surfacing across the usual
wind prone passes and canyons of L.A. and Ventura Counties to the
coast between 8-10AM this morning.
Synoptically, an amplified ridge off the west coast was pushing
well into the Gulf of Alaska. On the eastern side of the ridge, a
strong northerly jet with an embedded short wave currently over NRN
Nevada and western Utah, will continue to push into NRN Arizona
and Utah today. A 1033 mb surface high will build into NRN Nevada
this morning causing a sharp offshore gradient to develop.
This Santa Ana wind event will be mainly surface gradient driven,
similar to the last one. However, the initial punch of wind this
morning will not be as strong as last Thursday morning as the LAX-
DAG gradient will not have as strong as an offshore trend
initially. In fact it looks like the winds could be delayed an
hour or two this morning reaching the coast by mid morning. The
gradient will actually strengthen from -3.6mb this morning to -4.2mb
which is unusual but following the trend as the last wind event.
So once the winds develop, expect it to remain gusty through most
of the afternoon. It looks like the winds will increase with
intensity over the next few mornings as the gradient is expected
to reach over -6 mb Monday and possibly to -8mb Tuesday morning.
These gradients are pretty impressive both Monday and Tuesday and
high res models were indicating a decent cold air punch from the
high desert Tuesday morning, when the strongest winds are expected
to occur.
After coordinating with the San Diego NWS office, we decided to
leave the high wind warning in place for the mountains initially
today, although would only expect a few sites to reach 60 mph late
this morning. The best chance for more widespread gusts to 60 with
isolated 70 mph will occur Monday morning, with the best chance
Tuesday morning through the early afternoon hours. Overall, expect
sustained winds to be around 25 to 35 mph with gusts 50 to 55 mph
in the mountains, while the wind prone coast and valleys of L.A.
and Ventura Counties see gusts reach 35 mph to 50 mph each day.
There is likely to be a lull of the winds during the early
evenings, but strengthen once again after midnight each night.
Winds are expected to taper off late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Although there will be an amplified ridge over the region early
this week, thickness lvls will not be too high and due to the
cooler air source from the high desert, high temps will be
relatively cool compared to the typical Sep/Oct Santa Ana events
but still warmer than normal along the coast. It will remain
fairly cool in the Antelope Valley, in the 60s, while the valleys
reach the mid 70s and possibly the lower 80s at a few coastal
sites over the next few days. The Central Coast will experience
some warmer than normal high temps as well with the prolonged
offshore flow. Highs should remain fairly cool across the interior
areas of the forecast region.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...11/247 AM.
Offshore flow is expected to weaken quite a bit and persist
through Thursday. Winds will begin shift weakly onshore by
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. The GFS and EC models are in
general agreement with California under a weak upper level ridge
through Saturday when an upper level trough approaches Northern
California from the Pacific Northwest. Expect a return of the
marine layer stratus sometime late this week at least affecting
coastal areas.
&&
.AVIATION...11/1755Z.
At 17z at KLAX...There was no marine layer nor a surface based
inversion.
Overall...High confidence in the TAFs. Areas of smoke will create
areas of vis 5SM-6SM for all terminals KOXR and south.
KLAX... High confidence in the TAF. Vis will vary between 5SM and
6SM in FU. There is a ten percent chance of an east wind component
of 8kt 12/13Z-12/17Z.
KBUR...High confidence in the TAF. Vis will vary between 5SM and
6SM in FU.
&&
.MARINE...11/833 AM.
For the outer waters...Moderate confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds today in the southern outer waters where there
is a 40 percent chc of only local SCA wind gusts. Otherwise and
elsewhere, good confidence in forecast, the winds will be
elevated at times but will remain below SCA levels through
Thursday.
For the inner waters north of Point Conception...High confidence
in forecast.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception...Moderate
confidence in SCA forecast today, winds may be less strong and
more localized. This includes the waters out to Catalina Island
where there may be hazardous swells and gusty winds in and around
Avalon Harbor. Stronger winds are possible both Monday and Tuesday
morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...11/501 AM.
Santa Ana conditions will return this morning across much of Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties. The northeast winds are already
beginning to strengthen in the mountains and inland areas and will
noticeably strengthen near the coasts and adjacent valleys by 8 am.
In the mountains, the winds will increase to 25 to 35 mph with
gusts to 55 mph and localized gusts to 60 mph in wind prone passes
and canyons. For the valleys and coastal areas, winds of 15 to 30
mph and gusts to 45 mph are likely with some localized gusts to
55 mph. Conditions become more favorable for strong winds as the
day progresses and it is likely that the most intense period for
winds and very low relative humidities for this event will be late
morning through mid afternoon.
The winds will continue to be elevated through Tuesday evening
but will exhibit the usual strengthening after sunrise and tapering
off in the evenings through this period. The latest NAM model has
a LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -8.1 on Tuesday morning, which is
the strongest pressure gradient of this round of Santa Anas.
Thus it's possible there could be a final push of strong winds on
Tuesday morning.
Relative humidities will be very low through this event with
widespread single digit readings and very poor overnight recoveries.
Dry air will remain in place through next week and there will not
be any noticeable increases until next weekend.
Overall the confidence in timing for this event is high, with
moderate-high confidence on wind speeds, and high confidence on
relative humidity forecasts.
Santa Barbara and SLO Counties will see elevated fire weather conditions
today and next week with general offshore flow and areas of gusty east
and southeast winds likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM PST Tuesday for zones
40-41-44-45-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM PST Tuesday for zones
46-53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 5 PM PST Tuesday for zones
240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through at
least Tuesday with gusty Santa Ana winds at times and very low
humidities. Sub-freezing overnight temperatures expected in the
Antelope Valley and interior SLO County through the middle of
next week.
&&
PUBLIC...Kaplan/jld
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Rorke
FIRE...Jackson/Kj
SYNOPSIS...Sweet
weather.gov/losangeles2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong Santa Ana winds were reported across the mountains of Ventura county. The RAWS sensor at Boney Mountain reported north to northeast winds gusting up to 58 MPH.
Strong Santa Ana winds were reported across the mountains of Los Angeles county. The RAWS sensor at Mill Creek reported north to northeast winds gusting up to 60 MPH.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in California, November 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 795845, 795844.