Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, May 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass will persist into Friday, with a couple of
rounds of thunderstorms crossing the region from the west in the
afternoon and evening. Slightly drier air will work in from the west
on Saturday, but with a brief return of moisture by late weekend.
Better drying will arrive behind a passing cold front in the early
to middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT

As of 2pm EDT Thursday:  Round of showers and thunderstorms
currently underway with precipitation over much of Western North
Carolina , Northeast GA, and the foothills.  Showers will continue
into the evening, moving southeastward across the area.  Current
activity is related to upper wave cross the region with some
dynamical forcing.  Precipitable water values are down several
tenths of an inch from recent days, but with this upper support,
some heavy rain showers are still possible.  This wave is reinforced
by a second wave on Friday.  By Friday afternoon, a surface front
related to these upper waves will be come better defined and will
begin moving across the CWA. Surface front and better upper wave
will increase the strength of the wind profile and provide better
dynamical support for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Friday showers; however, will be faster moving and will leave behind
less precipitation that what we will see today.  With some
improvement in the flooding conditions expected through Friday
morning, a Flash Flood Watch for Friday afternoon/evening does not
seem justified at this point.  However, it might be considered if
enough areas get appreciable rainfall this afternoon.  The Flash
Flood watch for this afternoon/tonight still looks good, but has
been trimmed 6 hours at the end as shower activity will decline
considerably by early Friday morning.

With some upper support on Friday, both shear and instability
increase, and chances for severe weather go up a notch with the
Friday storms.  Deep layer shear improves to 15kt, with CAPE to 1500
j/kg.  Shear is still too weak for much of a tornado threat, but
chances for severe outflows and some hail exist.  Any strong winds
from storm outflows could cause numerous tree falls as tree roots
have been weakened from recent rains. Following the round of thunder
on Friday, the passage of the front will bring dewpoints and chances
for precipitation down considerably.  Dewpoints decline 4 degrees by
Friday night. Temperatures will remain generally warm and humid
through Friday, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 pm Thursday: The transition to a less tropical, more
typical late spring/early summer warm/humid regime will be completed
during the short term. Nevertheless, the pattern will remain quite
active, with a series of short wave troughs and attendant surface
features providing a focus for at least scattered diurnal convective
activity Sat and Sunday. Meanwhile, westerly deep layer flow will
allow for some modified elevated mixed layer air to filter into the
region, with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km progged through the
weekend. This will result in substantial sbCAPE each day, with
maximum afternoon values likely reaching at least 2500 J/kg. Thus,
while there may be less overall coverage of convection, especially
on Saturday, there will be higher potential for strong to severe
updrafts. This will most likely be in the form of pulse storms on
Saturday, when the deep layer shear will remain relatively weak, but
with more of a multicellular (if not something even more organized)
threat on Sunday, as deep layer shear increases to 30 to 40 kts
southeast of a robust short wave trough/upper low moving across the
Great Lakes. Although antecedent hydrologic conditions should
continue to gradually improve, a localized flash flood threat will
continue along the Blue Ridge into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday: Much drier air will filter into the region
behind a cold front Monday morning. The GFS is more robust with the
deep 500mb low moving ESE from the Great Lakes on Monday. The EC has
this feature more north and weaker. Both models take this low across
PA and New Jersey Tuesday and Tuesday night and enough shortwave
energy should affect the NC Mountains and somewhat less effects for
the foothills and piedmont. Certainly needs slight to low chance
POPs as it passes. Drier air again returns after the low moves off
the East Coast. A weak backdoor cold front drops down Wednesday or
Thursday but currently not expected to have much affect on our
weather. Going with a dry forecast Wednesday and Thursday.
Will need to watch the weak low over the NE Gulf and how it
influences our weather mid to late week. Temperatures will be near
or even a little below normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Generally low cloud decks have kept many
stations at MVFR today, with some possible improvement as the
afternoon progresses. Thunderstorms this afternoon will move across
the area from the northwest to southeast through 2z.  Storms will be
scattered, but some stations will have heavy rain, thunder, and
reduced visibility and ceilings as temporary conditions at times.
Included some fog overnight at KAVL, but most stations are not
expected to have problems as boundary layer moisture is gradually
declining.  Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday
afternoon which will begin to affect TAF sites around 18Z.  These
storms will be occurring along and ahead of a front that will also
veer surface winds to be more southwesterly to westerly on Friday.

Outlook: Slightly drier air will filter into the area for the end of
the work week. However, scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms, along with possible morning fog at a few locations
and/or low cigs are possible each day through early next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High  92%     High 100%     High  87%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
522 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
010930-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
522 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated heavy rain showers will be possible this morning in a few
locations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop from
the west this afternoon and evening. Any of these heavy downpours
will have the potential to produce isolated flooding, especially if
several showers affect the same location. Any afternoon and evening
thunderstorms may produce cloud-to-ground lighting, briefly gusty
winds, pea-size hail, and very heavy rainfall. Saturated soil
conditions could lead to a few trees getting knocked down by the
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-010930-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
522 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina, as well
as the North Carolina foothills.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will redevelop from the west this
afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms may produce cloud-
to-ground lighting, briefly gusty winds, pea-size hail, and very
heavy rainfall. Saturated soil conditions could lead to a several
trees getting knocked down by the gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ508-510-311830-
Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern Polk NC-
142 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 141 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of an area of
heavy rain along a line extending from 4 miles east of Columbus to 6
miles northwest of Rutherfordton, and moving northeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rutherfordton, Forest City, Spindale, Green Hill, Green Creek, Union
Mills, Mill Spring and Shingle Hollow.

Frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall
rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8197 3520 8221 3547 8206 3554 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 246DEG 8KT 3525 8213 3544 8202

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ501-502-311830-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
143 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

At 143 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of an area of
heavy rain along a line extending from 9 miles west of Lenoir to 9
miles south of Deep Gap, and moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Sawmills, Gamewell, Hudson, Cajah's Mountain, Cedar Rock,
Lake Rhodhiss, Kings Creek, Collettsville and Patterson.

Frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall
rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8145 3607 8144
      3607 8141 3604 8140 3602 8135 3600 8133
      3592 8134 3578 8152 3578 8156 3582 8160
      3582 8162 3585 8164 3588 8171 3592 8175
      3593 8178 3594 8178 3612 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 285DEG 12KT 3593 8170 3610 8147

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ051-058-062-311815-
Graham NC-Swain NC-Macon NC-
146 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTH
CENTRAL SWAIN AND EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 146 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Robbinsville, or 4 miles south of Fontana Lake,
moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Fontana Lake, Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek, Smoky
Mountains-Fontana Area, Luada, Wesser, Stecoah, Almond, Burningtown
and Nantahala.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 8380 3547 8376 3547 8341 3520 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 279DEG 14KT 3538 8370

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
148 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

GAZ010-017-311830-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-
148 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HABERSHAM AND WESTERN RABUN
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 148 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles east of
Hiawassee to 10 miles north of Clarkesville to 5 miles east of
Cleveland, and moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Clarkesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount Airy, Alto,
Mountain City, Tiger and Tallulah Falls.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8362 3460 8365 3462 8364 3465 8366
      3473 8362 3488 8365 3491 8363 3492 8360
      3494 8360 3495 8355 3498 8355 3494 8339
      3474 8335 3470 8335 3469 8334 3467 8337
      3449 8346 3449 8354 3443 8362 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 299DEG 10KT 3491 8360 3476 8356 3457 8367

TDP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ035-056-502-504-311945-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
255 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CATAWBA...ALEXANDER...
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of
Boomer to near Hickory to 11 miles southeast of Morganton, and moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Newton, Taylorsville, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview,
Bethlehem, Maiden, Icard and Hildebran.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8134 3600 8133 3603 8127 3603 8122
      3598 8109 3561 8112 3556 8122 3556 8156
      3566 8165 3580 8139 3604 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 308DEG 11KT 3598 8132 3576 8133 3566 8152

TDP