Rip Current in Florida, May 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Diurnal convective activity should diminish rapidly this evening,
with quiet wx expected overnight. Will likely see some patchy fog
develop once again Friday morning.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Southerly flow will allow for scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms again on Friday, but will see an increase in activity
for Saturday as an upper level trough swings through the southeast.
With instability increasing to around 2000-2500 J/kg, a few strong
to even a severe storm will be possible during the afternoon and
evening. Convection will diminish Saturday night with the loss of
daytime heating. Highs in the low to mid 90s will be a few degrees
above normal. Lows in the lower 70s will only fall into the mid 70s
Saturday night, well above normal.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

A cold front will sink into the southeast on Sunday and through
the CWA Sunday night. Ahead of this front, PW values will increase
to around 2 inches with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday
is expected to be our best chance of severe weather over the next
week with forecast CAPE values for Sunday of 4000-5000 J/kg. While
shear values aren't impressive (25kts), given the higher
instability, low level moisture, steep mid level lapse rates
(7-7.5 degrees C/km), and a weak upper level shortwave, the
potential for severe weather exists on Sunday. The main threats
will be dmaging wind and hail. Behind the front, conditions will
dry for the beginning of the work week with PoPs returning to the
forecast for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered about the area this
afternoon. However, expected coverage doesn't seem to warrant
prevailing coverage in the TAFs. Patchy fog will be possible
overnight, similar to this morning, with VFR conditions returning
by late morning on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

South winds around 10 knots or less will increase to exercise
caution levels over the weekend as a cold front moves through the
area. Seas will also increase to 3 to 4 feet during this time
period. After that, winds should subside again to 10 knots with
winds near 15 knots being brief.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A few points remain in action stage or are expected to reach
action stage, but river points should stay below minor flood.
While the Apalachicola River at Blounstown was expected to reach
minor flood stage at one point, this is looking less likely given
current and expected releases out of Lake Seminole.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  92  72  92  73 /  20  30  10  50  10
Panama City   75  86  76  87  78 /  10  10  10  30  10
Dothan        72  91  74  90  75 /  20  20  10  60  20
Albany        73  91  73  91  75 /  20  20  20  50  20
Valdosta      72  91  73  91  74 /  20  20  10  50  20
Cross City    72  89  74  89  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  74  87  74  87  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux