With a moisture rich and highly unstable environment, an impulse from Missouri |formed a line of severe weather that pushed from west to east across southern |Indiana and central Kentucky. This line dropped heavy rainfall which caused flooding |issues and severe winds that caused damage to property.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
With a moisture rich and highly unstable environment, an impulse from Missouri |formed a line of severe weather that pushed from west to east across southern |Indiana and central Kentucky. This line dropped heavy rainfall which caused flooding |issues and severe winds that caused damage to property.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 8:35 AM EST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 935 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 ...Forecast Update... .Forecast Update... Issued at 935 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 The 12z sounding from ILN and a recent AMDAR sounding out of SDF showed an inversion between 950 and 850 mb with decent lapse rates above. This elevated instability in conjunction with a weak shortwave moving through is aiding the development of scattered thunderstorms across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Other than lightning and brief downpours, small hail is possible. This activity should begin to weaken as the morning hours goes on. Upstream across southeast Missouri, a convective complex exists and could be the focus for the first round of thunderstorms across our area by mid afternoon. The recent runs of the HRRR are handling the current activity pretty well and was leaned on for the update. As we get into the afternoon, the moisture rich environment (low 70s dewpoints) should allow for 2000 to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and then with the approaching impulse from Missouri, this should trigger additional convection. The current thinking is that this will be across southern IN and north central KY. Storms would then drop south/east during the late afternoon. Additional storm development is possible across western KY and southwest IN that would then move into central KY later this evening. The Enhanced Risk was adjusted eastward with the morning update to include more of our forecast area and looks good for the area. The main hazards are damaging winds, but hail and heavy rain are still threats. A tornado threat still exists if line segments get oriented perpendicular to the 0-3km bulk shear vectors. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 31 2018 ....Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Tonight... Complicated and low confidence forecast today and tonight as models struggle to come to an agreement with convective solutions. To start off the morning, some models indicate scattered showers and storms firing up near 09z across parts of western KY. Observed 31.00z 500mb temperatures over southwestern MO indicate slightly cooler temperatures than surrounding upper air sites, and SPC 700-400mb differential vorticity advection has shown some positive values over western IL/KY this morning, so it's possible a very subtle shortwave could be present near the southern MO/IL border at this hour and could aid in the development of precipitation later this morning. In any case, will keep isolated to scattered PoPs in the forecast this morning to account for the potential. All of that activity, if it forms, should push east of the CWA by 16-17z. Attention then turns to this afternoon and evening, where the threat for strong to severe storms remains possible. Much of the storm activity we see during this timeframe will be highly dependent on how the current shortwave and convection over Oklahoma/Kansas evolves. Some high-res models that are currently handling that convection well are the 3km NAM and HRRR, but both show conflicting scenarios for convective evolution this afternoon and evening. It's possible we may end up with a couple rounds of storms (one this afternoon, another after sunset). Deep layer shear begins to increase after 20z as the shortwave over Oklahoma approaches, so convection (if it develops) during the late afternoon and evening will have 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear to work with. Assuming the atmosphere recovers from any potential morning convection, we should see moderate to high instability in place for storms. The combination of shear and instability will support strong to severe storms, which should mainly be in the form of multi-cell clusters and linear/bowing segments. Isolated activity, including supercells, would be more likely west of the CWA with initial convection before storms become outflow dominant and turn linear. The main severe weather threat with these storms would be damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Large hail may be possible in some of the stronger embedded or isolated cells that move into our area. Low level shear will remain weak through the duration of the event, so the tornado threat should be low... but a quick spin-up can't be ruled out where lingering outflow or differential heating boundaries interact with storms. Additionally, 0-3km bulk shear may exceed 30kts this evening, and should the 0-3km shear vector be line-normal to bowing segments, a brief spin-up tornado could be possible. .Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 Cloudy conditions are likely early Friday in the wake of expected convective activity from the short term period. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms may be ongoing across southern KY in the morning. Some scattered redevelopment is possible in the afternoon hours, with the best chances mainly south of the WK and BG Parkways. Overall, the forecast has not changed dramatically with 30-40 PoPs in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower-mid 80s across the region. Showers and storms are expected to diminish quite rapidly after sunset with lows Friday night cooling into the mid-upper 60s. For Saturday, latest guidance still suggestive of a dry and slightly less humid day. We'll start off the day with partly cloudy skies with highs ranging from the lower 80s in the Bluegrass and mid-upper 80s in the I-65 corridor and points west. For Saturday night and into Sunday, another quick moving upper level disturbance is forecast to cross the region. This feature will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The best chances for rainfall would be late Saturday night and through the day on Sunday with a drier conditions arriving Sunday evening. Lows Saturday night look to cool into the low-mid 60s, with highs on Sunday staying in the lower 80s. As we move into next week, the latest guidance continues to indicate that the Ohio Valley will remain in a northwesterly flow with a large area of high pressure building into the region. This set up should result in drier, cooler, and less humid conditions that what we've seen over the last week. A few week perturbations will work through the region Monday night and into Tuesday. However, the trend for now is to keep things dry during the period. Though, we suspect that some light PoPs may be required here in later forecasts. By midweek, we should see some more ridging attempt to build in from the west. However, that may be hampered a bit by a deep cut off low in the NE US. This would keep our flow, quite northerly for early June and keep temperatures a bit below normal through at least Thursday. The latest blends keep highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s over the bluegrass region with highs in the low-mid 80s in the I-65 corridor and points west. Overnight will likely dip into the upper 50s to low 60s through the period. Looking a little further down the road, dry weather and warmer weather may attempt to build further east by late week. Much of the heat and dry conditions will remain fully entrenched across the central Plains. A series of mid-level perturbations will work eastward within the northerly stream of the jet and this may suppress the ridge a little further south and west over time. This would set up the Ohio Valley for a northwest flow type regime with a threat of MCS's dropping in from the northwest by next weekend. && .Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 622 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 Some IFR/MVFR stratus has developed this morning across parts of the region. This stratus may linger around through parts of the morning before lifting to VFR as boundary layer heating progresses. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are also ongoing across portions of southern IL and western KY this morning, and will move into our region over the next several hours. More rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but confidence remains low in the timing and placement of storms. Low visibilities, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds will be possible in thunderstorms today. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && Update...ZT Short Term...DM Long Term...MJ Aviation...DM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-010800- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 /246 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. The main threats with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail will be possible in the strongest storms. An isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Friday afternoon and evening. At this time, severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible late Saturday night and throughout the day on Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. DM/MJ
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
745 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
INZ084-089-KYZ025-311215-
Crawford-Perry-Meade-
745 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD...CENTRAL
PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES...
At 745 AM EDT/645 AM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles
northeast of Tell City, moving east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, Leopold, Alton, Roberta, Ranger, Concordia, Fredonia,
Derby, Lilly Dale and Magnet.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3813 8671 3819 8634 3798 8633 3798 8640
3805 8649 3805 8651 3804 8652 3799 8652
3799 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1145Z 262DEG 20KT 3807 8666
ZTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
808 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
INZ084-090-KYZ025-311245-
Crawford-Harrison-Meade-
808 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHERN MEADE COUNTIES...
At 807 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles west of
Brandenburg, moving east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Brandenburg, New Middletown, Mauckport, Alton, Laconia, New
Amsterdam, Roberta, Concordia, Lodale and Battletown.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3805 8645 3807 8643 3809 8643 3809 8645
3811 8647 3812 8646 3816 8646 3819 8601
3797 8600 3797 8639 3803 8647 3805 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1207Z 268DEG 28KT 3805 8636
ZTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
950 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
INZ091-092-KYZ030-031-033-311415-
Floyd-Clark-Jefferson-Oldham-Henry-
950 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLARK...NORTHEASTERN
FLOYD...OLDHAM AND NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...
At 950 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Prospect,
moving east at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Jeffersonville, New Albany, La Grange, Prospect, Worthington Hills,
Barbourmeade, Coldstream, Green Spring, Spring Valley and Brownsboro
Farm.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3850 8532 3835 8529 3831 8533 3829 8585
3846 8586 3851 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 269DEG 36KT 3837 8557
ZTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1014 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ031-033-034-311445-
Oldham-Shelby-Henry-
1014 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OLDHAM...NORTHWESTERN SHELBY AND
SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES...
At 1014 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near La Grange,
moving east at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
La Grange, Coldstream, New Castle, Pendleton, Crestwood, Eminence,
Orchard Grass Hills, Pewee Valley, Owen and Smithfield.
LAT...LON 3831 8513 3830 8550 3834 8556 3845 8557
3846 8553 3847 8551 3850 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 1414Z 268DEG 37KT 3839 8546
ZTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1109 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ039-046-047-311545-
Mercer-Washington-Anderson-
1109 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN MERCER...SOUTHERN
ANDERSON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
At 1108 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 14 miles northeast
of Springfield, moving east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Harrodsburg, Ballard, Willisburg, Oregon, Bondville, Dugansville,
Talmage, Johnsonville, Riverview Estates and Seaville.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3774 8481 3778 8517 3789 8517 3789 8515
3793 8516 3800 8482 3793 8482 3792 8483
3792 8482 3791 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 266DEG 17KT 3785 8508
RJSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1144 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ036-040>042-047>049-055>057-067-311615-
Boyle-Bourbon-Scott-Mercer-Woodford-Fayette-Jessamine-Clark-Lincoln-
Madison-Garrard-
1144 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...
At 1143 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Georgetown to near Danville.
Movement was east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Georgetown, Nicholasville, Winchester, Danville,
Versailles, Paris, Harrodsburg, Stanford and Lancaster.
LAT...LON 3741 8453 3753 8486 3755 8485 3754 8488
3757 8496 3822 8463 3819 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 284DEG 22KT 3814 8458 3762 8484
RASThe Louisville radar (KLVX), 114 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:47 UTC.
72 thunderstorm wind, 13 flash flood, 2 flood, 1 hail, 1 heavy rain, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down on some power lines that have hit a gas line causing a major gas leak.
There were trees blown down at Dreyfus and Ogg Lane.
Trees were down at Jacks Creek Road and Clay Lane.
Trees were down at Boonesborough Road and the Clark County line.
There was a tree on a power line on Gibson Lane in Richmond.
Hail was reported at Farmington Court in Richmond.
Trees were blown down on Caleast Road.
There was high water on John Ballard Road.
There were trees down on Blue Lick Road.
High water was on Catalpa Loop.
There were trees down at Dreyfus and Muddy Creek near the wildlife refuge.
Downed tree limbs fell on several utility lines.
There are trees down on Gumbottom Road.
There was high water on Battlefield Memorial near Kingston Elementary.
There was a tree blocking the road.
Heavy rainfall was measured at a private weather station.
There were several trees reported down in the eastern part of the county.
It was reported that Scott County had numerous trees down county wide.
Trees were reported down.
Trees were reported down.
Trees were reported down at Dixie Highway at Katherine Station Road.
There was a large tree blocking the road at Broadway and Hancock Street.
Trees were reported down on a building.
Trees were down near West Pages Lane at Devonshire Lane.
A tree fell down on a vehicle along Goss Avenue.
Trees were reported down on Churchman Avenue.
Trees were reported down on Dubourg Avenue at Dixie Highway.
Trees reported down on South First Street.
Trees were down on 12th Street and Muhammad Ali Boulevard.
The ASOS at Louisville International Airport (Standiford Field) measured a 51 knot wind gust.
An air traffic controller at Bowman Field reported the Stand Alone Weather Sensors (SAWS) at the airfield showed a gust to 56 kts. The ASOS at the airport recorded a 50 kt gust.
Trees and power lines down on Armstrong Mill Road and Delong Road in Lexington. There were power lines down across a car with people inside.
Trees were down along River Road just northeast of downtown.
Trees were blown down on Colby Road.
Trees were blown down near Highway 42 and Covered Bridge Road.
There were several trees reported down on Halls Hill Road off of KY-329.
Trees reported down on Blankenbaker Lane.
Trees were down and blocking CSX railroad line between Crestwood and Peewee Valley.
A tree was reported on a garage in Hikes Point.
Trees reported down at multiple locations along Interstate 71.
The public reported trees down at Anchorage School and Anchorage Presbyterian Church.
A large tree limb broke a window out of a semi tractor on Interstate 71 southbound at the 24 mile marker.
Trees reported down on Highway 421, both north and south of Bedford.
There was a 52 knot measured wind gust.
A tree was blown down on Yoder Station Road north of Taylorsville.
Trees were reported down near Pendleton.
Several trees and limbs were reported down in the northeastern part of the county.
There was a tree reported down on a vehicle on Goss Ave.
Trees reported down in the Pleasureville and Bethlehem area.
There was a large tree across Eldorado Avenue in Buechel.
Trees reported down.
There were more than 2 dozen reports of trees down across the southern part of the county south of Frankfort.
The ASOS at Capital City Airport measured a 52 knot wind gust.
High water closed a section of Saint Rose Road.
Trees reported down on Loretto Road.
There were 2 - 6 inch diameter trees that snapped near Palomar Shopping Center.
The ASOS at Bluegrass Airport measured a 53 knot wind gust.
There were numerous trees downed in Lebanon and in other parts of Marion County.
High water closed Horan Lane.
High water caused Shortline Pike near Highway 68 to close.
A tree fell and was blocking Hundley Lane.
Large tree limbs blew down and street lights don't have power.
A Kentucky mesonet sie measured a 50 knot wind gust.
Trees were reported down on White Conkwright Road.
The Salt River came out of its banks and overflowed onto Bonds Mill Road for about an hour.
Multiple trees were reported down.
Dispatch reported multiple trees down in the Lewisburg area.
A tree caught fire after knocking down a power line on Harvey Street.
A tree blew down on Joe Morris Road near Finney Road.
Trees were reported down on Jones Chapel Road.
Multiple trees were reported down on Old Gradyville Road.
Trees and power lines down on Edmonton Road outside of Columbia.
There was high water over Booker Road southwest of Springfield.
Mitchellburg Road was closed due to high water.
There was water over Highway 33 South between Prison and North Point Training Center.
A state official reported water was over the Highway 127 Bypass, south of Harrodsburg.
The public reported, using mPing, that a river or creek was overflowing.
There was a power line down blocking the Road on East Highway 619 near Indian Caves Hill.
A creek was overflowing its banks and flowing over the roadway for a short time.
Chaplin River was out of its banks and flowing over roadways in Perryville.
There were multiple reports of trees down near Lamb.
There was a tree on a power line on Gibson Lane in richmond.
Dispatch reported downed trees and power lines on Glasgow Road.
There was a tree down across Nashville Road south of Chaney.
There were multiple reports of trees down in Auburn.
There were power lines down in Franklin.
There was an apartment building damaged by a lightning strike.
There was a tree down across Rapids Road.
There were trees down across Maysville Road.
A foot of water covered the low water crossing at the Salt River on Rice Road. A nearby CoCoRaHS observer reported nearly 2 inches of rain in less than an hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 757557, 757558, 757559, 757560, 757561, 757554, 757562, 757535, 757563, 757536, 757564, 757565, 757566, 757537, 757567, 757555, 757568, 757569, 757570, 757571, 757572, 757573, 757574, 757575, 757576, 757577, 757578, 757579, 757580, 757642, 757643, 757581, 757582, 757583, 757585, 757586, 757588, 757589, 757590, 757594, and more.