A shortwave moved east out of Missouri towards southern Indiana and |central Kentucky. As this shortwave met the moisture rich and unstable |environment over the Ohio Valley, a line of heavy storms with high |winds and heavy rainfall strengthened and tracked southeast downing numerous trees which caused power outages and property damage.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A shortwave moved east out of Missouri towards southern Indiana and |central Kentucky. As this shortwave met the moisture rich and unstable |environment over the Ohio Valley, a line of heavy storms with high |winds and heavy rainfall strengthened and tracked southeast downing numerous trees which caused power outages and property damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 8:35 AM EST, 3 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 935 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 ...Forecast Update... .Forecast Update... Issued at 935 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 The 12z sounding from ILN and a recent AMDAR sounding out of SDF showed an inversion between 950 and 850 mb with decent lapse rates above. This elevated instability in conjunction with a weak shortwave moving through is aiding the development of scattered thunderstorms across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Other than lightning and brief downpours, small hail is possible. This activity should begin to weaken as the morning hours goes on. Upstream across southeast Missouri, a convective complex exists and could be the focus for the first round of thunderstorms across our area by mid afternoon. The recent runs of the HRRR are handling the current activity pretty well and was leaned on for the update. As we get into the afternoon, the moisture rich environment (low 70s dewpoints) should allow for 2000 to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and then with the approaching impulse from Missouri, this should trigger additional convection. The current thinking is that this will be across southern IN and north central KY. Storms would then drop south/east during the late afternoon. Additional storm development is possible across western KY and southwest IN that would then move into central KY later this evening. The Enhanced Risk was adjusted eastward with the morning update to include more of our forecast area and looks good for the area. The main hazards are damaging winds, but hail and heavy rain are still threats. A tornado threat still exists if line segments get oriented perpendicular to the 0-3km bulk shear vectors. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 31 2018 ....Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Tonight... Complicated and low confidence forecast today and tonight as models struggle to come to an agreement with convective solutions. To start off the morning, some models indicate scattered showers and storms firing up near 09z across parts of western KY. Observed 31.00z 500mb temperatures over southwestern MO indicate slightly cooler temperatures than surrounding upper air sites, and SPC 700-400mb differential vorticity advection has shown some positive values over western IL/KY this morning, so it's possible a very subtle shortwave could be present near the southern MO/IL border at this hour and could aid in the development of precipitation later this morning. In any case, will keep isolated to scattered PoPs in the forecast this morning to account for the potential. All of that activity, if it forms, should push east of the CWA by 16-17z. Attention then turns to this afternoon and evening, where the threat for strong to severe storms remains possible. Much of the storm activity we see during this timeframe will be highly dependent on how the current shortwave and convection over Oklahoma/Kansas evolves. Some high-res models that are currently handling that convection well are the 3km NAM and HRRR, but both show conflicting scenarios for convective evolution this afternoon and evening. It's possible we may end up with a couple rounds of storms (one this afternoon, another after sunset). Deep layer shear begins to increase after 20z as the shortwave over Oklahoma approaches, so convection (if it develops) during the late afternoon and evening will have 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear to work with. Assuming the atmosphere recovers from any potential morning convection, we should see moderate to high instability in place for storms. The combination of shear and instability will support strong to severe storms, which should mainly be in the form of multi-cell clusters and linear/bowing segments. Isolated activity, including supercells, would be more likely west of the CWA with initial convection before storms become outflow dominant and turn linear. The main severe weather threat with these storms would be damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Large hail may be possible in some of the stronger embedded or isolated cells that move into our area. Low level shear will remain weak through the duration of the event, so the tornado threat should be low... but a quick spin-up can't be ruled out where lingering outflow or differential heating boundaries interact with storms. Additionally, 0-3km bulk shear may exceed 30kts this evening, and should the 0-3km shear vector be line-normal to bowing segments, a brief spin-up tornado could be possible. .Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 Cloudy conditions are likely early Friday in the wake of expected convective activity from the short term period. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms may be ongoing across southern KY in the morning. Some scattered redevelopment is possible in the afternoon hours, with the best chances mainly south of the WK and BG Parkways. Overall, the forecast has not changed dramatically with 30-40 PoPs in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower-mid 80s across the region. Showers and storms are expected to diminish quite rapidly after sunset with lows Friday night cooling into the mid-upper 60s. For Saturday, latest guidance still suggestive of a dry and slightly less humid day. We'll start off the day with partly cloudy skies with highs ranging from the lower 80s in the Bluegrass and mid-upper 80s in the I-65 corridor and points west. For Saturday night and into Sunday, another quick moving upper level disturbance is forecast to cross the region. This feature will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The best chances for rainfall would be late Saturday night and through the day on Sunday with a drier conditions arriving Sunday evening. Lows Saturday night look to cool into the low-mid 60s, with highs on Sunday staying in the lower 80s. As we move into next week, the latest guidance continues to indicate that the Ohio Valley will remain in a northwesterly flow with a large area of high pressure building into the region. This set up should result in drier, cooler, and less humid conditions that what we've seen over the last week. A few week perturbations will work through the region Monday night and into Tuesday. However, the trend for now is to keep things dry during the period. Though, we suspect that some light PoPs may be required here in later forecasts. By midweek, we should see some more ridging attempt to build in from the west. However, that may be hampered a bit by a deep cut off low in the NE US. This would keep our flow, quite northerly for early June and keep temperatures a bit below normal through at least Thursday. The latest blends keep highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s over the bluegrass region with highs in the low-mid 80s in the I-65 corridor and points west. Overnight will likely dip into the upper 50s to low 60s through the period. Looking a little further down the road, dry weather and warmer weather may attempt to build further east by late week. Much of the heat and dry conditions will remain fully entrenched across the central Plains. A series of mid-level perturbations will work eastward within the northerly stream of the jet and this may suppress the ridge a little further south and west over time. This would set up the Ohio Valley for a northwest flow type regime with a threat of MCS's dropping in from the northwest by next weekend. && .Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 622 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 Some IFR/MVFR stratus has developed this morning across parts of the region. This stratus may linger around through parts of the morning before lifting to VFR as boundary layer heating progresses. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are also ongoing across portions of southern IL and western KY this morning, and will move into our region over the next several hours. More rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but confidence remains low in the timing and placement of storms. Low visibilities, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds will be possible in thunderstorms today. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && Update...ZT Short Term...DM Long Term...MJ Aviation...DM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-010800- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 /246 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. The main threats with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail will be possible in the strongest storms. An isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Friday afternoon and evening. At this time, severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible late Saturday night and throughout the day on Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. DM/MJ
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1221 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ041-049-311645-
Fayette-Clark-
1221 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLARK AND EASTERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES...
At 1221 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cadentown,
moving east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Winchester, Cadentown, Chilesburg, Constant Station,
Renick, Lyndale, Jackson Ferry, Tebbs and Judianne Estates.
LAT...LON 3786 8404 3789 8426 3792 8427 3790 8431
3792 8443 3805 8445 3809 8406 3806 8405
3786 8401 3787 8402 3787 8403 3785 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 269DEG 20KT 3797 8436
RASSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1232 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ029-030-034-038-311700-
Jefferson-Shelby-Bullitt-Spencer-
1232 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SPENCER...SOUTHERN SHELBY...
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN BULLITT COUNTIES...
At 1231 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pioneer
Village, moving east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Shepherdsville, Pioneer Village, Taylorsville, Spring Mill, Highview,
Okolona, Fern Creek, Minor Lane Heights, Mount Washington and Hebron
Estates.
LAT...LON 3814 8522 3796 8527 3794 8540 3796 8543
3797 8546 3799 8549 3796 8553 3796 8552
3795 8553 3801 8571 3815 8571
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 273DEG 30KT 3806 8562
RASSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1237 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ040-047-048-311700-
Mercer-Woodford-Jessamine-
1237 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MERCER...
SOUTHERN WOODFORD AND JESSAMINE COUNTIES...
At 1236 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Nicholasville, moving east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Nicholasville, Wilmore, Shakertown, Jessamine, Logana, Union Mills,
Little Hickman, East Hickman, Troy and Keene.
LAT...LON 3784 8445 3785 8448 3784 8449 3780 8446
3776 8454 3778 8464 3779 8464 3780 8461
3781 8464 3781 8466 3779 8465 3778 8467
3783 8468 3782 8472 3779 8470 3781 8480
3795 8477 3796 8454 3794 8448 3787 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 274DEG 24KT 3787 8471
RASSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ056-057-311715-
Madison-Garrard-
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GARRARD AND SOUTHERN MADISON
COUNTIES...
At 1250 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lancaster,
moving east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Lancaster, Mccreary, Berea, Round Hill, Caleast, Duluth,
Peytontown, Bighill and Kingston.
LAT...LON 3756 8415 3756 8417 3753 8419 3752 8421
3753 8421 3752 8423 3759 8459 3778 8452
3764 8413 3759 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 275DEG 16KT 3768 8449
RASPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1256 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM HAIL 1 W RICHMOND 37.75N 84.31W
05/31/2018 E0.75 INCH MADISON KY AMATEUR RADIO
REPORTED AT FARMINGTON CT, RICHMOND.
&&
KACPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1148 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE MIDWAY 38.11N 84.65W
05/31/2018 WOODFORD KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
DOWNED TREE ON SOME POWER LINES THAT HAVE
HIT A GAS LINE CAUSING MAJOR GAS LEAK.
&&
KACThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:11 UTC.
27 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The county Emergency Manager reported power lines and poles down and on fire at West 1st Street in Huntingburg, IN.
A carport had its roof blown off of a metal garage.
Trees were reported down along Cuzco Road in Dubois County, IN.
Tree limbs were reported across power lines on E Street in St. Anthony, Indiana.
There were a few trees reported down in the Tell City - Cannelton area of Indiana.
A tree was reported down on a road in Derby, Indiana.
There was a tree down on South State Road 37 approximately one mile south of Paoli, Indiana.
Trees were blocking US 150 W in Orange County, Indiana.
There was a tree down blocking a portion of State Road 337 seven miles outside of Orleans, Indiana.
Crawford County dispatch reported trees down on power lines in the town and west of town on State Road 64 in Marengo, Indiana.
Multiple trees and power lines were down across Dubois County, Indiana causing power outages throughout the county.
Many large trees were reported down through out Harrison County, Indiana.
Multiple trees and power outages were reported through out Salem, Indiana.
There were several power lines down near US 150 and State Road 56 reported by a NWS employee.
The media reported that shingles were blown off roofs in Harrison County, Indiana.
There were numerous trees blocking roadways throughout the county causing several roads to be closed.
Dispatch reported power lines down blocking one lane of traffic on State Road 62 NE.
A large tree was uprooted and fell on a school building.
The fire department reported that a large tree was down on power lines and caused minor damage to a home. There was also a tree across power lines that caused a small fire.
There was a tree down on one of the exit ramps from Interstate 65 to Scottsburg, Indiana.
There was a tree down at Scottsburg High School.
A social media photo showed trees down on Interstate 65 between Henryville and Memphis.
There was a metal barn destroyed near Prather Schoolhouse.
There was a large tree down blocking State Road 60.
There were multiple reports of trees down and power outages through out Salem, Indiana.
The emergency manager reported trees down all over the county.
There was a report of a tree down on a house in Bethlehem, Indiana.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 750532, 757648, 750539, 750548, 750551, 750555, 750559, 750582, 750583, 750617, 750618, 750619, 750628, 750755, 750756, 750759, 750758, 750761, 750763, 750767, 750773, 750781, 750784, 750785, 750786, 750787, 750788.