Multiple rounds of thunderstorms impacted the region on the last day of May. Damaging winds, large hail, flooding, and a couple tornadoes were observed in this outbreak.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms impacted the region on the last day of May. Damaging winds, large hail, flooding, and a couple tornadoes were observed in this outbreak. The first round of storms moved through southern Illinois, mainly north of Route 13, during the morning hours. Widespread damaging winds were associated with this line of storms. Scattered thunderstorm development then began by mid to late afternoon, with coverage increasing further into the evening hours. The first round of storms left an outflow boundary across southeast Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley, where scattered thunderstorms developed. Surface dewpoints near the boundary were in the lower 70s, which contributed to moderately strong instability. A subtle shortwave trough across the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Missouri Valley provided large-scale ascent for the evening round of storms. Mid-level winds around 50 knots located just ahead of the shortwave helped to create moderate to strong deep-layer wind shear, favorable for a few supercells.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 5:55 AM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 655 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 655 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 Interesting convective forecast over the next 24 hours. Cannot disagree with SPC's Enhanced Risk for most of the area today based on ingredients, but the mode and timing have yet to be worked out. Most of the 00Z and later guidance develops convection over our region prior to sunrise and continues it through at least the morning hours. A few showers have already developed along I-64 in southern Illinois, but 00z GFS and NAM soundings would suggest that if we get convective initiation it should be in the form of elevated thunderstorms. Not sure if the surge of moisture needed to achieve initiation will occur or not. There would be very little shear available for the elevated parcels, but there could be some decent instability, so there could be a few stronger cores with some hail potential. The primary zone advertised in the guidance is from southern Illinois southeast into west Kentucky. The more significant potential convective event is expected at some point this afternoon and evening, as the MCV associated with the MCS currently over Kansas and Oklahoma lifts northeast near KSTL by 00Z. Not sure if I have seen any CAM data that really represents the southward extent of the current convection very well, and that could have an impact on the placement of mesoscale features late this afternoon. The general themes are convective initiation along I-64/southern Illinois near 18Z as the southeast limb of the MCV moves into that area. The second theme is for late afternoon convective initiation near I-64 to the southwest of the MCV, potentially along the associated outflow boundary. This activity would likely grow upscale and move into our area as a line of some sort. The GFS and NAM both bring an EML into at least the southern third of the area this afternoon on the southern periphery of the MCV. That should provide a south/southwest edge to any afternoon convection. Wind fields will be improving through the afternoon, and some supercell structures will be possible with large hail and damaging wind threats. Most of the shear is in the lowest 3km, with winds maxing out around 45 mph from the west above 700mb. If this activity continues or develops early in the afternoon, some training will be possible as steep lapse rates and low-level moisture will continually be fed into the area, roughly the northeast half of the region. Some isolated flash flooding concerns may develop. Normally would be concerned with the early day convection muddling the destabilization for late afternoon and evening convection, but as stated above, the relatively strong westerly flow in the mid and upper-levels should provide a continuous supply of steeper lapse rates to work with. The bigger question is timing and location. It looks like it will already be in the form of a line or at least line segments as it reaches the area perhaps as late as 00Z. This activity may be shunted farther south over the southern half of the area depending on how much convection persists through the afternoon over our north and northeast. The EML should provide steep lapse rates aloft and strong heating with steep low-level lapse rates, so a damaging wind threat will become the greatest concern with the linear mode expected. With the strong instability possible and the potential for embedded rotating updrafts, large hail will also be possible. The tornado potential is non-zero, but the 0-1km shear is not that great, so it will be a secondary severe concern to the large hail and damaging winds. Although this line should be moving at a decent clip, if it goes over areas that already experienced afternoon convection, flash flooding will be possible. The larger-scale trough will still be in the area at 12Z Friday, so we will keep decent PoPs in the southeast half of the area through the night. Have emphasized the evening for the greatest PoPs, but capped them at likely levels due to uncertainties in timing and location. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 Model agreement is fairly good through the period with the main concern being thunderstorm chances later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Friday starts out with a frontal boundary pushing through west Kentucky, with chances of showers and thunderstorms continuing at least through the morning hours. The 00z GFS hangs it up and lingers rain chances through the afternoon, so will maintain low chance PoPs through the day across portions of the southeast counties. Dry conditions take hold for the entire area by later Friday evening through the 1st part of Saturday as upper ridging nudges into the region. The main system of interest for this period is associated with shortwave energy diving out of the the Northern Plains Friday night into Saturday. The lower Ohio Valley will reside in an instability rich airmass with plentiful moisture (dewpoints in low to mid 70s) and combined with decent mid level flow (500mb wind of 35-40 kts), there looks to be enough support for the possibility of severe thunderstorm development by late afternoon or evening. Current thinking matches up with SPC Day 3 Outlook which has a slight risk across the west half of the area. PWAT values also look to exceed 2 inches, so may have some flooding issues as well with very efficient rainfall rates. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning, with all areas expected to be dry by midday Sunday. A pattern change looks to take shape early next week, with much drier air penetrating through the area. This means dewpoints dropping into the 50s area wide by Sunday night into Monday. A welcome change compared to the current humidity levels! At the surface, high pressure looks to move across the area Monday and Tuesday. The current forecast is dry, but given weak ripples in the northwest flow aloft, rain chances appear non-zero. Mid level flow will largely remain northwesterly across the Heartland next week as upper ridging builds over the central/southern Plains. This may eventually result in more of a ring of fire type pattern affecting our area, particularly by the mid or latter part of the week. Temperatures will be quite warm Friday and Saturday with highs near 90 and heat index readings pushing the mid 90s in some locales. May even be some heat index values near 100 across southeast Missouri on Saturday afternoon. It looks like we will finally experience temps back near normal Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows dipping into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Some slight moderation upward is expected by mid next week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 655 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 Complicated convective forecast today and tonight leads to a low confidence aviation forecast this morning. One cluster of mainly SHRA with some TSRA is heading east of KEVV at this time, and will handle this with a VCSH. TSRA is likely by midday at KEVV and KOWB, but it may hold off until early evening at KCGI KPAH. Southwest winds may increase enough for some gusts into the teens or lower 20s. A large complex of thunderstorms over Missouri early this morning will continue east northeastward and new development near it will likely bring a line of strong to severe storms eastward through the entire area late this afternoon and this evening. Did not insert any associated gusty winds, but 50kts is not out of the question with the line. Fog or low clouds will be possible late tonight behind the convection. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...SP AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 347 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 347 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today mainly from southern Illinois into west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. A few severe storms with large hail will be the primary concern this morning, but damaging winds will become an additional concern this afternoon. There is some potential for training of storms today which could result in some localized flash flooding concerns. A line of storms will move through the region from late this afternoon through the evening hours. The potential exists for more widespread damaging winds and large hail with the line. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to some more flooding concerns, especially in areas that received heavy rain earlier in the day. Heat index values may reach 100 this afternoon near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and southward to the Missouri Bootheel. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A chance of thunderstorms is forecast for portions of the area on Friday, particularly across western Kentucky. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main hazards. Another chance of thunderstorms is forecast Saturday afternoon through the night. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail along with torrential rainfall and lightning. Afternoon heat index readings may approach 100 degrees on Saturday afternoon across portions of southeast Missouri. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should be prepared for activation throughout the area this afternoon and evening, and again Saturday afternoon and evening. DRS/SP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
549 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2018
INZ081-085-311115-
Posey IN-Gibson IN-
549 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GIBSON AND NORTHERN
POSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...
At 548 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Poseyville, or 13 miles west of Fort Branch, moving east at 35 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Poseyville, New Harmony, Cynthiana and Griffin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.
&&
LAT...LON 3826 8768 3811 8770 3807 8795 3807 8796
3810 8796 3809 8801 3811 8799 3811 8797
3813 8797 3813 8795 3816 8791 3817 8792
3816 8793 3819 8796 3823 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 260DEG 32KT 3820 8782
SMITHThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:10 UTC.
12 thunderstorm wind, 6 hail, 2 tornado, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous large trees were blown down just off U.S. Highway 51 near Makanda. There were reports of downed tree limbs elsewhere in southern parts of the county.
Trees were down on power lines in the northern parts of the county.
Multiple trees and power lines were down across the county. Power outages were reported. In Pinckneyville, many tree limbs were down and shingles were blown off a house.
Numerous tree limbs were down. Gutters were blown off a house. Power outages occurred across the county.
Scattered tree damage was reported across the county. Large limbs were down between Woodlawn and Mt. Vernon. Structural damage to outbuildings was reported near Waltonville. A wind gust to 78 mph was measured at the Mt. Vernon airport.
Trees and power lines were down across the county, including Galatia and Carrier Mills.
Trees were blown down, making Route 142 impassable near Dale.
Flooding was reported along Highway 34.
Emergency management personnel estimated sustained winds were 40 to 45 mph with gusts above 60 mph. Trees and power lines were down across the county. Generators were being utilized in Fairfield, where the doors were blown open at the health department.
A wind gust to 58 mph was measured near Interstate 64.
Small trees and power lines were down.
A couple of small limbs were down in Albion. A large tree was down in Browns.
A tree fell on a house.
This hail occurred at the Cairo Fire Department.
A storm survey team estimated peak winds up to 95 mph occurred with this tornado, which touched down along the Mississippi River levee. The tornado passed near the community of Wolf Lake before dissipating at the edge of the Shawnee National Forest just east of Route 3. A very large equipment barn collapsed, and another barn was destroyed. A one-story house was partially shifted off its foundation. All structural damage was between Route 3 and the Mississippi River levee. The tornado was witnessed by at least one trained spotter and several other individuals. Prior to spawning this tornado, the parent storm produced a tornado near Trail of Tears State Park in Cape Girardeau County, Missouri about ten minutes earlier.
This hail was reported near the community of Gossett, off U.S. Highway 45 near the White County line.
Peak winds were estimated by a National Weather Service survey team near 75 mph. This weak tornado occurred in close proximity to another tornado about a mile north. Several tree limbs were broken. The roof of a barn was blown in on one side. This tornado also occurred near the Mississippi River between Route 3 and the levee. Prior to spawning this tornado, the parent storm produced a tornado near Trail of Tears State Park in Cape Girardeau County, Missouri about ten minutes earlier.
Ping pong ball size hail was reported at Norris City. Quarter-size hail fell near the Hamilton County line off U.S. Highway 45 near Gossett.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Illinois, 2018Warnings in Illinois, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 756435, 751235, 751236, 751238, 751239, 751241, 751242, 754717, 751246, 751271, 751259, 751261, 751266, 751222, 751223, 751230, 751224, 751231, 751225, 751228, 751229.