Montana, 2018

High Wind in Montana, December 15, 2018

December 15, 2018 · NWS TFX · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

An upper level trough crosses North Central and Southwestern Montana, quickly tracking across Montana throughout the day. Windy conditions continue to increase during the morning hours, peaking along The Rocky Mountain Front and over much of North Central Montana through the afternoon hours.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

An upper level trough crosses North Central and Southwestern Montana, quickly tracking across Montana throughout the day. Windy conditions continue to increase during the morning hours, peaking along The Rocky Mountain Front and over much of North Central Montana through the afternoon hours.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 15, 4:31 AM MST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 15, 4:31 AM MST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
431 AM MST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of rain and mountain snow continue to develop over western
Montana, getting caught up along the divide and mostly drying out
before reaching Northcentral Montana. Gusty winds have started to
increase over much of the Northcentral Montana, especially along
the Rocky Mountain Front and Plains areas directly to the east.
Mild and breezy conditions continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday night...An energetic upper level trough has
started crossing Northcentral and Southwestern Montana today,
quickly tracking across Montana throughout the day today. Windy
conditions will continue to increase this morning, peaking along
the Rocky Mountain Front late this morning, and over much of
Northcentral Montana through the afternoon hours. A High Wind
Warning remains in effect for expected high winds in this area of
enhanced mountain wave activity. The moist westerly flow has
started to produce some mountain snow over the Northern Rockies
overnight last night and into this morning, where 2-4 inches of
new snow is possible for the remote backcountry terrain. Lighter
snowfall is also expected over the southern end of the Madison
range in far southwest MT. Subsidence behind the passing upper
level trough, combined with deeper boundary layer mixing this
afternoon could cause a period of more widespread stronger wind
gusts with the departing surface low. Skies clear across the
region later this afternoon. A period of weak upper level ridging
shifts across the region tonight through Sunday night will bring
some drier conditions to the area. -TP

Sunday night through Saturday...West to southwest flow aloft
increases again Mon/Mon night as a weakening shortwave trough
moves across the Northern Rockies. Main impact period of next week
looks to occur Tues/Wed As a strong Pacific upper level jet moves
onshore with an associated moisture plume directed across the
Northern Rockies late Tuesday through Wednesday morning. This will
bring rain and high elevation snow to areas along the continental
divide with a few showers also potentially making it east of the
divide with the passage of an associated frontal system Tuesday
night. Most areas however will see another period of stronger
winds late Tuesday through Wednesday as this system moves through.
An upper level ridge rebuilds over the Western US for late
Wednesday through Thursday before models diverge with respect to
the timing and trajectory of the following round of incoming
shortwave energy from the Pacific. Temperatures will remain well
above seasonal averages through much of next week with some
cooling possible late next week into the following weekend.
-Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1125Z. Increasing mid/high level clouds tracking across
the region through the period, with steadily increasing strong
winds near the surface, leading to some terminals experiencing
some low level wind shear this morning. The upper level trough
moves through today, with windy/strong winds expected in many
areas today. Winds should decrease tonight, and the trough tracks
further eastward across the state. Some western mountains/passes
could be obscured at times through the period. -TP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  32  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  41  28  45  31 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  39  21  42  21 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  29  16  36  11 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  36  20  40  20 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  44  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  42  28  48  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon Eastern Glacier.

High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 15, 5:31 AM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
531 AM MST SAT DEC 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS       47.47N 111.38W
12/15/2018  M55 MPH          CASCADE            MT   ASOS

            ASOS STATION GTF, GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

&&
Local storm report, Dec 15, 6:04 AM MST, 53 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
604 AM MST SAT DEC 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW ULM                47.42N 111.52W
12/15/2018  E52 MPH          CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CURRENTLY GUSTING 18G30MPH, HAD PEAK GUSTS
            AT 3:05AM AT 52MPH.

&&

TP

Event by event

3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Madison

When
December 15, 6:57 AM MST
Where
Madison forecast zone
Measured
53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways

High wind gust of 61 mph reported by the Dept of Highways at Norris Hill dot weather station 4 NNE McAllister.

High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front

When
December 15, 10:15 AM MST
Where
Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Measured
57 kt (66 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

High wind gust of 66 mph measured at dellwo mesonet station 14 W Bynum.

High Wind, North Rocky Mountain Front

When
December 15, 11:52 AM MST
Where
North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Measured
53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways

High wind gust of 61 mph reported by Dept of Highways at two medicine bridge dot weather station 1 ENE East Glacier Park.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, December 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 797097, 796791, 797098.