A strong storm force low down to 962 MB was 300 NM WSW of Dixon Entrance on the afternoon of 12/15. The associated front caused strong winds for Prince of Wales Island, the Ketchikan Area, and Taku-like winds for Juneau.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A strong storm force low down to 962 MB was 300 NM WSW of Dixon Entrance on the afternoon of 12/15. The associated front caused strong winds for Prince of Wales Island, the Ketchikan Area, and Taku-like winds for Juneau. No damage was reported in spite of the very strong winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 15, 6:26 AM AKST, 5 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
626 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018
.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ Large and complex storm will
affect the area through the period. The system will generally move
N from the NE PAC into the gulf today, then continue slowly N
through the gulf tonight and Sun while weakening. Occluded front
will move N through the area through Sun morning, although it will
be slow to push through the more eastern areas. Models in fairly
good agreement on the larger scale features, but there are some
differences on the smaller scale, mainly with timing and track of
waves along the front.
Made some adjustments to the WWA headlines. Went ahead and issued
a winter storm warning for zones 18 and 19 from 06z this evening
through 01z Mon. Upslope flow above the cold airmass in place will
enhance snowfall amounts, especially once some instability aloft
develops later tonight and Sun morning. Looking like 10-20 inches
of snow for the event, with the Haines area likely ending up with
the most snow out of this. Did lower snowfall amounts near
Skagway with some downslope flow in the low level cold airmass,
but this should diminish late tonight and Sun morning. Added a
winter weather advisory for zone 29, mainly for Hyder, tonight and
Sun morning. Looking like an 8-12 inch snowfall there before
precip starts to mix with rain Sun afternoon.
Left in the high wind headlines where they were, but did tweak
timing some for the Juneau area. Timing of best cross barrier flow
and critical level were a few hours sooner, so pushed both the
start and end times 3 hrs earlier. Left timing of HWW as is for
zone 27. Also extended out the strong wind headlines through
tonight (southern inner channels) or Sun (outer coast outside the
HWW).
Otherwise, did slow onset of precip some today over the central
and S, but pretty much left timing further N as is. Tried to limit
the snowfall in the PAJN/PAGS areas to a couple inches or less
tonight and Sun, mainly due to amount of easterly flow. PAOH
should see more snow, but will also transition to rain sooner, so
they should remain below advy levels. Pretty much left timing of
precip changeover to rain as is, except did slow transition
timing over the far N as the cold air will tend to hang on with
front going aloft over them.
Added in mention of TSTMS behind the front for much of the gulf
tonight and Sun as complex low moves N with 300+ J/KG MUCAPE and
several vort maxima moving through. They may end up needing to be
added to Sun night as well, but timing differences of the smaller
scale shortwaves differed enough to not include them yet.
.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday night/...Extended range
forecast begins with a large, negatively tilted upper trough
situated over the Panhandle or just slightly offshore. Weak upper
level ridging will displace the trough on Tuesday, and then be
displaced to the east in turn by a large digging upper trough by
Wednesday morning. This trough will spin up an upper low that will
act to keep the 300mb jet core pushed just south of the Panhandle
Wednesday night. A strong low level southerly jet will be
oriented along the long axis of the Panhandle and located over
the central inner channels on Monday morning. This feature will
weaken through the day but be replaced by an equally strong, if
not stronger, low level southerly jet by Tuesday morning.
At the surface, a weakening low will be moving inland vicinity
Prince William Sound Monday morning and a developing gale will be
located south of the Gulf between 140W and 150W. Weak low pressure
will extend across the Gulf from north to south in between these
two lows. As the first low continues inland and dissipates over
the southern interior, the second will continue on an easterly
track while intensifying. Somewhere southwest of Haida Gwaii, the
low will begin tracking north and approach Southeast Alaska from
the south. Model agreement with this low is still below average,
but there is consensus that this will be a weak gale. Changes to
pressure and wind grids Monday morning through Tuesday night
reflect this. Used a blend of ECMWF and the Canadian NH model for
pressure for Monday, then the ECMWF and WPC for Tuesday as this
represented the middle ground solution and best continuity with
the previous forecast. Used the Canadian model as a foundation
for winds on Tuesday, then modified WPC wind grids for Wednesday.
Showers left over from a system that will impact Southeast Alaska
in the short term period will still be in place through Monday
night. Used the National Blend of Models to depict this. By
Tuesday mid morning, precipitation from the front associated with
low number 2 will move in from the south to the north. This also
was well depicted by the National Blend. Warm air advection
associated with the front in the short term will push the
rain/snow line far enough north that only the far northern inner
channels will likely not transition to rain through Wednesday day.
Thee is a good chance that the snow line will advance south to
the Icy Strait corridor Wednesday night, allowing for a transition
back to snow in Juneau, Hoonah, and Gustavus. A cooling trend
late this coming week may allow the snow line to advance back
south to as far as Frederick Sound by next weekend.
WPC used for updated to pressure, wind, and PoP from Wednesday
onward. Overall forecast confidence is average.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ026-
028.
High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM AKST this evening for
AKZ027.
Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ027.
High Wind Warning from noon today to midnight AKST tonight for
AKZ025.
Strong Wind through Sunday afternoon for AKZ022-023.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST
Sunday for AKZ029.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM AKST Sunday
for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034>036-053.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-033.
&&
RWT/Fritsch
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Salmon Landing observed gusts to 78 KT on the evening of 12/15, but these are estimated due to the peak wind of the sensor is 78. Other areas around Ketchikan had gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range. No damage was reported.
Hydaburg had measured gusts to 62 mph during the evening of 12/15. The buoy in Dixon Entrance also had 62 mph, so the southern end of Prince of Wales probably got these gusts, too. No damage was reported.
A Taku wind hit Downtown Juneau and Douglas on the evening of 12/15 into the early morning hours of 12/16. AML measured gusts to 73 mph. Marine Exchange sensors maxed-out at 78 mph. The Library had gusts to 77 mph. The Tide Gauge had 65 mph closer to the surface of Gastineau Channel. Amazingly, no damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 789525, 789526, 789527.