A low pressure system deepened over the Red River Valley on the 13th and tracked eastward into the Arklatex on the 14th before shifting northeastward toward Memphis on the 15th. Several rounds of rain occurred during this time as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streamed northward into the Ozarks.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A low pressure system deepened over the Red River Valley on the 13th and tracked eastward into the Arklatex on the 14th before shifting northeastward toward Memphis on the 15th. Several rounds of rain occurred during this time as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streamed northward into the Ozarks. The highest rainfall totals occurred across the southeast portion of the region, where over two inches of rain fell. A localized report of flooding occurred from the heavy rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 15, 11:21 AM CST, 2 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1121 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 ...Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 A band of light to moderate rain continued early this morning from Rolla to Houston to Branson. Steady north winds were also occuring as surface low pressure was moving northeast through western TN. 500mb low pressure was located over AL, and with spokes of energy moving around this feature, will expect the rain to continue in the eastern ozarks through late morning. Rainfall amounts and rates have been light enough to not cause any flood issues, however, with rain ongoing, will let the Flood Watch continue through the morning hours. Upslope flow on the Ozark Plateau has allowed for dense fog to form at times on the north sections of the plateau, however once rain enters that region the visibilities increase. Will likely let the Dense Fog Advisory expire naturally at 10Z. A sharp clearing line existed from Joplin to Versailles as much drier air existed just northwest of the area. High temps today will be warmest out west given more sunshine and drier air, with cooler readings in the eastern ozarks since clouds will be slower to clear there. High pressure axis slides in tonight and nudged low temps down given light winds, clear skies and a dry airmass building in. May have to go lower on temps with next update. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 Quiet and warmer weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday as mod level heights rise. High temps will warm into the 50s with some locations pushing 60 degrees. A pattern change is in the offing by mid to late week with global models showing a highly amplified pattern developing near or just east of the area. Shortwave energy moves in Wednesday and may hang around Thursday depending on how fast the long wave trough amplifies. At this point precipitation looks to be light with rain as the type. Cooler temps will accompany this pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 Clouds continued to rotate around an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley, with the back edge still affecting the KBBG terminal with MVFR ceilings, while clear skies are found at KSGF and KJLN. These clouds should slowly push off to the east through the afternoon hours, with VFR flight conditions returning to KBBG and remaining VFR at KJLN and KSGF. VFR flight conditions then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Raberding
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 538 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161145- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 538 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Burchfield
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
State Highway EE was closed due to flooding at the North Fork River low water crossing. This report was per the MODOT traveler map.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 796435.