A surface low pressure center deepened as it moved northeast from Louisiana to western Tennessee. Aloft, a deep trough in the Desert Southwest moved east and developed into a closed low over the southern Plains.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A surface low pressure center deepened as it moved northeast from Louisiana to western Tennessee. Aloft, a deep trough in the Desert Southwest moved east and developed into a closed low over the southern Plains. This low passed south of the Ohio Valley on its way to the mid-Atlantic region by the 16th. Widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms developed generally between the 13th and 15th, bringing moderate to heavy rain. Most locations picked up between 2 and 3 inches of rain. A few locations saw up to 3.5 inches. The heavy rain caused isolated flash flooding and some minor flooding of small rivers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 14, 11:26 PM CST, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 Low center moving over Louisiana this afternoon with wrap around areas of rain, drizzle and some convective activity across the Ohio Valley and back to the southwest across the Arklatex region. Best rains tonight through early Saturday will actually focus more into IL and IN, wrapping slightly back into SEMO. Overall think the Flood Watch is not really needed. But will not change things at this time (just in case). Locally heavy rain and minor water issues possible most anywhere. Probably least likely far west KY west into the southeast MO flat lands. Otherwise categorical PoPs tonight, with some thunder possible into West KY and possibly SEMO. Rains will slowly diminish from west to east by Saturday afternoon and evening, dry late Saturday night with the system still south and pushing away from the area. Used the HREF, WRF ARW and NAM for the overall forecast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 After the prolonged period of cloudiness and intermittent rain departs on Saturday, we will finally see several days of dry weather and sunshine, as well as seasonal temperatures. A weak upper ridge will try and build into the area on Sunday but dampen out as it moves southeast. In its wake, a weak trough will move overhead Sunday night, but with no moisture to work with, so our dry streak will continue. By Monday, upper heights really start increasing as a large upper level ridge builds into the area as high pressure settles in at the surface. This ridge stays in place through Tuesday but then starts to weaken and moves eastward. This is in response to an upper trough that moves onshore on the west coast at the beginning of the week and moves into the central Plains by late Tuesday. This system will be our only chance of seeing any precipitation during the week. Although there are slight timing difference between the models, the consensus of the data does hone in on a time frame from Wednesday night through at least Thursday night. The GFS continues to be rather scant with QPF due to a lack of deep moisture. As the aforementioned upper trough moves into the area on Wednesday night into Thursday, another shortwave trough will dive southeast from the northern Great Lakes and merge with the westward moving trough. So chances for rain will linger through the day on Thursday. The problem lies in how long to linger precipitation. The newest ECMWF develops an upper level low in Arkansas after the aforementioned upper trough merger, which will prolong the exit of the system until Friday night. The GFS ensembles are at least in line with the arrival of possible rainfall and seem to be trending toward the newer ECMWF solution of lingering rain into Friday. Model blends and neighboring office consensus however, leaves the area dry for Friday right now. All in all, this does not look like a major rain event as QPF is very minimal at this time. Unsure of the exact amount of coverage of the precipitation at this point so PoPs will remain on the low side (i.e. 20%-40%). In any event, we should see improving conditions for the end of the week at least Friday night and into next weekend. High temperatures through the period will not change too too much and range from the mid to upper 40s to lower 50s. Generally lows will be in the 30s, with upper 20s likely north on Monday night. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 Widespread IFR or lower ceilings expected to persist for much of the period. Moderate rains may lead to slightly improved conditions over at least the northern half of the region, including KOWB and KEVV, through Saturday morning. The rain is expected to intensify over KPAH and KCGI for a few hours overnight and toward daybreak. Behind the heavier rains, LIFR conditions with drizzle and fog are expected for much of the day, and possibly into the evening hours east of the Mississippi River. Very modest improvement is expected from west to east through the evening. Overnight, north northeast winds will be sustained 10-15kts with gusts over 20kts at times, except perhaps for portions of west Kentucky including KOWB. Winds will slowly back to north and northwest and diminish through the afternoon and evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ086-100-107>109. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 430 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-151100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 430 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Flood Watch continues through midday Saturday for the Ozark Foothill region of southeast Missouri. Refer to the Watch for details. Locally heavy rain is possible area wide. Slightly higher chances for minor flooding will exist in the Watch area. However isolated minor flooding cannot be ruled out across the rest of the area. Some of the rainfall may be enhanced by isolated thunderstorm activity. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Reports of rainfall totals during and at the end of the event are requested. We would also appreciate any reports of flooding as well.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was running over the intersection of County Roads 5 and 18 southeast of Benton. A motorist encountered problems keeping the vehicle on the road while driving through the water.
County Road 15 was closed at the Perry County line due to flooding on the Little Muddy River.
Minor flooding occurred along the Big Muddy River. Some low-lying woods and fields near the river were inundated.
Minor flooding occurred along the Little Wabash River. Some county roads were flooded. Low-lying fields around the river were inundated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 794037, 794038, 794065, 794066.