A complex of thunderstorms pushed east across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon hours. Several of the thunderstorms produced damaging wind gusts.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A complex of thunderstorms pushed east across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon hours. Several of the thunderstorms produced damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 11:55 AM EST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1255 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Ohio Valley today through Friday, resulting in a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will provide for dry conditions on Saturday before another disturbance brings a chance of precipitation for Sunday. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Earlier 6Z NAM seemed to have a better depiction on convection this morning and used this in combination with the 12Z run and HRRR/RAP and current forecast to run the probability of storms this late morning and early afternoon. Blended temperatures and dewpoints with observed values into the afternoon and HRRR/RAP blend. Area of convection associated with an MCV in srn IL with a watch butting up to CWA does not appear to be depicted well by any model. SREF has a good swatch of QPF in sw IN through 18Z where other CAMs have an apparently poor initialization scheme. That being said, southern IN and sw portions of our CWA are depicted as having some activity through 21Z and an area moving ene, likely what is ongoing but not initially shown in these models. Going into this evening, models weaken the storm footprints over southern CWA and focus upstream development back in southern IL. Will look at this evolution with the next forecast update and see how CAMs evolve early this afternoon to help guide the next public forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Scattered convection may still be ongoing across primarily southern portions of our fa early this evening but we may otherwise begin to see a diurnal decrease in coverage elsewhere across our area. There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to how exactly things will play out with the approach of the MCS moving out of the Mississippi Valley this evening. The hi res models continue to vary in their timing and placement of this. The general trend is for the bulk of it to stay mainly to our south/west toward the better instability and possibly weaken/dissipate as it moves into our area. That being said, there is the possibility that it may make it into at least southern portions of our fa, so will generally continue with chance pops into the overnight hours. Deep layer shear is progged to increase, at least across our southwest, through the evening hours. So if this system does make it into our area, there would be at least a lower end severe threat across our southwest for primarily damaging winds. The models seem to be in somewhat better agreement with a surface wave then working east across northern portions of our area late tonight and through the day on Friday. This will lead to a continue chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day on Friday. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday night surface low pressure will be located across our far east in association with a mid-level wave. There is sufficient instability and weak shear to the southeast of the low, along with CAMs indicating ongoing convection exiting the area, to warrant higher PoPs. Also aiding in potential convective development at this time is a surface cold front which is forecast to be crossing the central zones. During the day Saturday the mid-level wave will push east of the area with global ensemble models (GEFS and EPS) showing below normal heights through the rest of the extended (or implied slightly below normal temperatures). Temperatures Saturday will return to normal with drier air spilling in from the northwest (PWATs less than 1.00" across the northwest). Saturday night into Sunday another shortwave will move across the area with the primary PVA just north of the area, but with high PWATs just off to the southwest (~1.5" via the GFS) showers and thunderstorms may return to the area. The only fly in the ointment here is that the GFS has a upper level dry slot rushing out just in front of the main wave. For example, the KCVG GFS forecast sounding for Sunday shows a PWAT of 1.49" yet substantial dry air exists between 500 and 200 MB. This dry air may limit vertical development of any storms that try to get going. Sunday evening a cold front will push through the area with drier and cooler air returning to the region. PWATs Monday fall below 0.50" and 850 mb temperatures also fall to below 10 degrees C. The GFS is slight more amplified with the wave here and therefore is the cooler solution compared to the ECMWF. Either way, Monday looks to be pleasant with highs in the mid 70s. Tuesday afternoon the wave is forecast to wrap up over the eastern United States allowing another slightly stronger reinforcing front to push through the area. 850 MB temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday fall to around 5 degrees C making highs in the lower 70s likely. As mentioned above this couple day stretch of slightly below normal temperatures has started to catch on in the ensembles. This implies confidence increasing in the beginning of next work week being pleasant with below normal temperatures and dry weather. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail as some lower MVFR stratus breaks apart from earlier this morning. Upstream storms will nose into southern CWA and continue this evening. Cores of storms will produce LIFR vsbys but the bulk of activity today will be scattered over the TAF sites, with a better chance of occurrence in CVG/LUK. Model guidance is not depicting today and subsequently the overnight hours well at all, so the forecast is low confidence in when and where these storms will occur. Expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorm activity in the next 24-30 hours with a generally ssw flow 10-12kt. Amendments will be forthcoming when and where storms have a higher probability of occurrence later today. Used VCSH/TS as the catch-all for todays forecast until then. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible into Friday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Franks
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1107 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-011200- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 1107 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight. A few of the storms may be strong to severe, especially this evening and into the overnight hours for areas near and south of the Ohio River. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging winds. However, isolated large hail can not be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
148 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ100-OHZ081-088-311815-
Lewis KY-Scioto OH-Adams OH-
148 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LEWIS...SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...
At 148 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Tollesboro,
moving east at 35 mph.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...
Locations impacted include...
Vanceburg, Head of Grassy, Camp Dix, Tollesboro, Sandy Springs, Buena
Vista in Scioto County, Saint Paul, Harris, Kinniconick, Tannery,
Epworth, Emerson, Ribolt, Charters, Garrison, Petersville,
Stricklett, Glen Springs, Rexton and Herron Hill.
Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
LAT...LON 3832 8336 3840 8341 3838 8345 3840 8348
3843 8357 3859 8363 3862 8363 3868 8304
3864 8305 3863 8307 3860 8307 3855 8310
3849 8319 3847 8319 3843 8324 3834 8323
3832 8328 3833 8332 3832 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 248DEG 32KT 3853 8354
ARSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
209 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
KYZ100-OHZ081-088-311845-
Lewis KY-Scioto OH-Adams OH-
209 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LEWIS...SOUTHEASTERN
ADAMS AND NORTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...
At 209 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Rome,
moving northeast at 25 mph.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...
Locations impacted include...
West Union, Rome, Blue Creek, Otway, Concord, Lombardsville, Carrs,
State Route 348 at State Route 125, Wamsley, Turkey Creek Lake,
Friendship, Cedar Mills, Firebrick and West Portsmouth.
Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
LAT...LON 3862 8353 3877 8357 3896 8313 3870 8304
3870 8303 3869 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 246DEG 21KT 3870 8347
ARPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
243 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0846 PM TORNADO 5 W TROY 40.04N 84.30W
05/30/2018 F0 MIAMI OH NWS STORM SURVEY
BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO DESTROYED AN OUTBUILDING, LIFTING
DEBRIS ONTO AN ADJACENT GARAGE. SOME LARGE LIMBS BROKEN
OFF AS WELL. ESTIMATED WIND SPEED 65 MPH.
&&
BINAUPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0304 PM TSTM WND DMG HOLTON 39.08N 85.38W
05/31/2018 RIPLEY IN 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWNED.
&&
MBPThe Cincinnati radar (KILN), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:19 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several large trees were downed.
A few trees were downed.
A few trees were downed on U.S. 127 and Route 455.
A few trees were downed.
Some siding was blown off of a house and several large limbs were downed.
A few trees were downed.
Several trees were downed.
Numerous trees and power lines were downed.
Several trees and power lines were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 749845, 749846, 749847, 751924, 749848, 749849, 749850, 751921, 751922, 751923.