Blizzard and Heavy Snow in North Dakota, March 6 to 7, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
708 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Quick update for minor timing adjustments to the start of
winter headlines across central North Dakota. Will cover the dense
fog across much of the area this morning with a SPS in lieu of a
Dense Fog Advisory given the complex headline setup for today.
Overall, all headlines and impacts are on track based on the 06
UTC global models and the 09-11 UTC high resolution iterations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

A powerful winter storm and will impact much of western and
central North Dakota through the short term. Blizzard conditions
are likely over parts of the north by this afternoon. A
complicated forecast is shaping up with large differences in model
guidance even at this late hour.

A deepening mid level trough, currently located over eastern
Montana, will continue to dig and eventually take on a negative
tilt and close off over North Dakota today. At the surface, low
pressure will start to develop over the southwestern part of the
state. Rapid cyclogenesis will take place as this low propagates
quickly northeast across the state, eventually moving into
southeastern Manitoba by this evening.

While precipitation will likely begin as rain or a wintry mix,
cold air will quickly filter in behind the deepening low,
promoting a quick change over to mostly snow across the north.
Some of the latest model guidance early this morning has shifted
the heavier bands of snow further west, so elected to expand the
heavier accumulations to the Montana border. Anywhere along and
north of Highway 2 will see snow totals in the 3 to 8 inch range
with locally higher amounts possible. Quite a bit of uncertainty
still remains as to where these heavier bands will setup,
however.

Another concern will be potential near blizzard to blizzard
conditions where the heavier snow falls. The GFS has been
consistent with very strong pressure rises as the low races
northeast. The 00z iteration paints a large area of 3 hour
pressure changes from +4 to +6 mb by this evening, which will
certainly help to mix some very strong winds down to the surface
with steep low level lapse rates also in place. Because of this,
elected to go with a blizzard warning over much of the north. The
worst conditions will likely be along and north of Highway 2.

Elsewhere, the current winter weather advisory and high wind
warning still look good.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

As the winter storm continues to depart, Tuesday looks like
another windy day and will likely require more headlines after a
brief lull overnight Monday.

The long term will generally remain active and much colder with
fast moving waves embedded within northwest flow aloft towards the
end of the week. There will be many chances of light snow with
these waves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 703 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Widespread LIFR/VLIFR fog will precede the strong storm system
that will impact western and central North Dakota today through
tonight. Significant aviation hazards are expected with very
strong winds with gusts of 40-55kts developing, heavy snow, low
ceilings and visibility.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to
midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for NDZ019>022-034-035-042-045-
046.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for NDZ017-018-031>033-041.

Blizzard Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
NDZ002>005-010>013.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for NDZ023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ001-009.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NDZ040-043-
044.

&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...AYD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
703 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

NDZ017>023-025-031>037-041-042-045>048-050-051-071315-
McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Hettinger-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
703 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017 /603 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect today through this
evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A wind advisory may be needed for Tuesday and Tuesday night for
strong and gusty northwest winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ002>005-010>013-071315-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
703 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Blizzard Warning is in effect this afternoon through tonight.
See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A wind advisory may be needed for Tuesday and Tuesday night for
strong and gusty northwest winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ040-043-044-071315-
Slope-Bowman-Adams-
603 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A High Wind Warning is in effect today. See www.weather.gov/bis
for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A wind advisory may be needed for Tuesday and Tuesday night for
strong and gusty northwest winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001-009-071315-
Divide-Williams-
703 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect today. See www.weather.gov/bis
for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A wind advisory may be needed for Tuesday and Tuesday night for
strong and gusty northwest winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PJA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
549 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-061600-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite,
Columbus, Portal, Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, Rolla,
Dunseith, Rolette, Shell Valley, St. John, Williston, New Town,
Stanley, Parshall, Minot, Velva, Towner, Drake, Rugby,
Watford City, Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, Hazen, Center,
Garrison, Washburn, Underwood, Wilton, Turtle Lake, Mcclusky,
Goodrich, Harvey, Fessenden, Carrington, Beach, Medora,
Dickinson, Mandan, Bismarck, Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, Marmarth,
Mott, New England, Elgin, Carson, New Leipzig, Bowman, Hettinger,
Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon,
Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes,
and Ellendale
549 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017 /449 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2017/

...DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...

Areas of dense fog with visibility below one half mile will
continue to develop across most of western and central North
Dakota this morning. Fog may hold into the afternoon central
until the onset of precipitation with the strong storm system
that will impact the area. Use caution if traveling especially at
uncontrolled intersections, railroad crossings and truck entry
points.

PJA