Tornadoes and Hail in Arkansas, March 6 to 9, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
830 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Evening convection has been light over AR
with a bit lack of upper lift, but are now seeing additional
convection forming over northwest AR. But later this evening and
into the overnight, better lift will be seen as the upper level low
pressure trough swings closer to AR, and the cold front moves
through AR overnight. All other factors are present in the
atmosphere, good moisture, enough of instability, and speed and
directional shear with the wind fields in the atmosphere. Still do
expected isolated strong to severe storms before the cold front,
while the better chance will be seen along the boundary. Damaging
winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes are expected. Timing of the
main storms with the cold front remain around 8 PM to midnight in
northwest AR, midnight to 5 AM for central, and 4 AM to sunrise
Tuesday for eastern to southeastern areas. Otherwise, lows tonight
will be from the 40s to 50s north, the 50s to 60s central, to 60s
south. Temperatures will quickly lower behind the cold front
overnight. Winds will also be elevated from the northwest then
become west later in the day. Clouds will break and partly to mostly
sunny conditions will be seen later Tuesday, with highs in the 50s
to 60s. Late evening update will mainly fine tune convection
chances. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 540 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017/
.Aviation...

Overall VFR ceilings with patchy MVFR conditions will start the
forecast. An area of light rain and showers, with only isolated
thunder, will initially move northeast over central to southern AR
this early evening. Later this evening and especially overnight,
additional convection, strong to severe in some locations, will be
seen as an upper system and cold front move through the region. More
MVFR and areas of IFR will be seen more after midnight and with the
stronger convection. Winds will be south at 10 to 20 mph with some
higher gusts, then switch to the west to northwest behind the front
and be 10 to 20 mph. Low level wind shear will be seen as a low
level jet has set up over AR this evening and into the overnight
hours and affect most Taf sites. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 256 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017/
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Light showers were in place around the state for much of the day
today with overcast skies. Through the day today have continued to
see temperatures warm across the state with breezy southerly winds.

The main focus of the short term is the tonight period as a cold
front approaches from the west. Strong warm advection win some
locations, will be seen as an upper system and cold front move
through the region.ill continue through the evening hours allowing
temperatures to remain fairly steady after dark tonight...with
dewpoints on the rise as well. Ahead of the cold front...a
moderately unstable atmosphere and plenty of wind energy will be in
place across the state. Nam and HRRR model soundings show over 1500
j/kg of CAPE and 400+ 0-1 helicity across portions of west central
Arkansas. Equally concerning given these and other parameters, is
that the HRRR has shown great run to run consistency in developing
cells out ahead of the main line across portions of west central
Arkansas. Coinciding with these parameters is that in the past few
hours, have started to see some breaks in the clouds across portions
of Yell, Logan, and Scott counties. Putting the pieces together...it
does appear that if enough forcing can be generated the locations
where cells could develop ahead of the front would be north and west
of an Arkadelphia to Conway to Mountain Home line. If these cells
are able to develop...all modes of severe weather will be possible
(hail, winds, tornado).

This system will evolve very similar to what was seen last week as a
cold front will move through the state during the overnight hours.
Storms along this front will be linear in nature and lead to a
straight line wind threat as it moves quickly through the state.
Along these lines of storms, a brief tornado may spin up.

Behind the front on Tuesday, dew points will plummet and breezy
northwest winds will be seen. This will likely create a slightly
elevated wildfire danger. But at this time, it does appear that a
red flag warning will not be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday Night

A few interesting events are shaping up during the extended term.
First event will be a frontal boundary sagging down from the north
into the state in the Thursday night into Friday time frame. Models
generally push the front southward thru the CWA and bring it back
north as a warm front later on Friday. Upper level flow will NWLY
thru the period, and I am a bit concerned that the front may end up
stalling and becoming quasi-stationary, which would lead to the
potential for a heavier rain event. Will have to see how this
evolves over the next day or two.

The bigger focus right now will be on Saturday into Saturday night.
Models are showing a vigorous shortwave dropping down, along with an
associated cold front moving in from the northwest. At this time
this certainly looks like it may have the potential to produce
severe weather, although at this range it's tough to make a
judgement call on whether or not there will be enough instability.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  66  40  69 / 100  50   0   0
Camden AR         66  70  40  73 /  80  80   0   0
Harrison AR       46  63  38  70 /  90  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  69  40  72 /  90  50   0   0
Little Rock   AR  64  68  41  72 /  90  60   0   0
Monticello AR     65  69  41  72 /  80  90  10   0
Mount Ida AR      58  66  37  71 /  90  40   0   0
Mountain Home AR  49  64  38  70 /  90  10   0   0
Newport AR        59  66  40  69 /  90  60   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     66  70  41  70 /  80  90   0   0
Russellville AR   56  67  38  71 /  90  20   0   0
Searcy AR         60  68  39  71 /  90  60   0   0
Stuttgart AR      65  69  42  70 /  90  90   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...65 / Long Term...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1137 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1137 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight ahead of a
cold front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight and
into the early morning hours Tuesday. If storms do become severe,
they are capable of producing large hail, and damaging winds, as
well as a few tornadoes.

In the pre-dawn hours, a cold front will move into Arkansas, with a
line of showers and thunderstorms along it. Severe thunderstorms
could occur along the front, with damaging wind gusts and large
hail. Very brief, weak tornadoes are possible as the line of storms
moves through, as these can occur in lines of storms.

With high moisture content in the atmosphere, stronger storms will
be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, with amounts of an
inch or two in a very short time period. This could cause localized
flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

The line of storms is expected to gradually decrease in intensity
as it moves through the state before exiting by early afternoon
Tuesday. Behind the front, an elevated wild fire danger will exist
as winds become elevated from the northwest and relative humidity
values drop Tuesday afternoon. Extra caution should be used when
burning.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation will likely be necessary this evening into the
overnight hours.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Brown/59

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1040 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

ARZ003-004-070515-
Marion AR-Boone AR-
1040 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND CENTRAL
BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CST...

At 1039 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Capps, or over Harrison, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Diamond City...
Bergman...                        Lead Hill...
Pyatt...                          Olvey...
Myrtle...                         Dodd City...
Capps...                          Willis...
Lakeway...                        Winington...
Clark Hill...                     Bellefonte...
Zinc...                           South Lead Hill...
Batavia...                        Fairview in Marion County...
Bear Creek Springs...             Hopewell in Boone County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CST for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3632 9258 3612 9311 3612 9320 3625 9329
      3650 9293 3650 9280
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 240DEG 41KT 3622 9315

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1105 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

ARZ037-038-041-070545-
Scott AR-Yell AR-Montgomery AR-
1105 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YELL...SOUTHEASTERN
SCOTT AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CST...

At 1105 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Muddy Creek WMA, or 14 miles northwest of Mount Ida, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gravelly...                       Fourche Valley...
Muddy Creek WMA...                Wing...
Chula...                          Macedonia in Yell County...
Waltreak...                       Bluffton...
Rover...                          Nola...
Fourche Mountain Recreation Are...
Onyx...
Sims...                           Briggsville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CST for western and
central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3463 9371 3475 9387 3511 9351 3492 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0505Z 224DEG 35KT 3475 9373

Brown