Wildfire and High Wind in Kansas, March 6 to 7, 2017

Name: Wildfire and High Wind in Kansas, March 6 to 7, 2017
Start: 2017-03-06T11:45
End: 2017-03-07T00:00
Location: Kansas

March 6 to 7, 2017 · NWS GID · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

High winds occurred behind a cold front on this Monday afternoon. Northwest winds were sustained between 30 and 40 mph.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $100,000
Crop damage: $300,000
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.

High winds occurred behind a cold front on this Monday afternoon. Northwest winds were sustained between 30 and 40 mph. Wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph were common. The highest gust observed was 59 mph near Lebanon. Blowing dust was visible everywhere, generally reducing the visibility to 3 to 7 miles. Satellite imagery showed the dust originated in eastern Colorado, and it was transported northeastward just ahead of a cold front. However, winds behind the front picked up additional dust. These high winds combined with extremely low relative humidity (RH) values to create dangerous fire weather conditions. Afternoon minimum RH values were between 7 and 15%. A significant wildfire occurred in Rooks County, very close to Stockton.

At dawn, a deep low pressure system (983 mb) was over South Dakota with a warm front extending east into the Great Lakes, and a cold front extending southwest to Arizona. A dryline extended south into the warm sector, through western Kansas to New Mexico. As the day progressed, both the dryline and cold front swept through the region as the low occluded and deepened further to 978 mb. In the upper-levels, a trough was over the Western U.S., with a ridge in the East. During the day, a strong shortwave trough over Utah lifted northeast out of the base of the western trough and into Nebraska and South Dakota.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 6, 11:03 AM CST, 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 6, 11:03 AM CST, 42 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1103 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The high wind warning has been expanded to include our entire cwa
as RAP forecast soundings indicate deep mixing across all of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The main forecast concerns for today are 1. High Winds and 2.
Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions.

Overview:
A strong upper level disturbance will move through the area today.
Ahead of this disturbance, a deep lee trough exists with a strong
pressure gradient across the Central Plains. Southerly winds
overnight are commonly sustained near 25 mph and gusting to 30-35
mph. This is only the beginning for the winds. The strong winds,
mixing and the fact that the dryline is to the west of the area have
kept overnight temperatures mild...in the 50s for the most part.

Today the upper trough will push eastward. The dryline will surge
eastward and dewpoint temperatures will plummet. Winds will become
southwesterly and stay strong before the cold front catches up and
winds become westerly and increase further. Highs today will
again be warm with the help of the warm start to the day and
significant mixing during the afternoon. Highs are again expected
in the 60s and 70s. Now on to the major concerns.

1. High Winds
While strong winds are ongoing as of the issuance of this
forecast, they will only get stronger throughout the day. As the
winds change from the south to the southwest and eventually to the
west behind the cold front they will increase. Using various
guidance soundings and mixing down winds, many points across the
forecast area have sustained wind speeds 40 mph or higher with
gusts over 50 to 55 mph. Despite this, did not expand the High
Wind Warning across the whole forecast area for now, only
expanding it east and south some where confidence is higher, allowing
the day shift to monitor and see how the event evolves. Would not
be surprised to see the High Wind Warning expanded across all of
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Have also kept
the mention of blowing dust in the forecast as in afternoon
forecast.

2. Fire Weather
Fire Weather is no less concerning than the wind and is directly
impacted by it. Extreme fire danger has been well
advertised...with an areawide Red Flag Warning issued Sunday
morning. Relative humidities will be in the single digits to teens
across the area and the winds will be howling (as already
discussed).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Main forecast concern will be critical fire weather conditions
again Tuesday. See the fire weather section and fire weather watch
for more information. I bumped up winds for Tuesday afternoon as
model blends are likely not picking up the magnitude of post-
frontal winds. The pressure gradient will relax allowing winds to
decrease Tuesday evening and temperatures to fall back into the
20s overnight into Wednesday morning.

Winds shift southerly for Wednesday and high temperatures will reach
65 to 70 degrees. Again RH values will be near critical thresholds.
Winds will be significantly lighter, but could still approach
near-critical levels briefly during the afternoon.

Precipitation-wise, quiet conditions are expected Tuesday through
Thursday as we remain in quiet northwesterly flow. Kept a very
slight chance of rain/snow in our northernmost counties during the
morning and afternoon Friday, although it looks like most of the
precipitation will be north of the CWA. Better chances for rain,
possibly with a changeover to snow will be Friday night into
Saturday morning as a stronger wave quickly moves through the area.

There is more uncertainty for Sunday at this at this point. We will
be in somewhat messy northwest flow and some models indicating
chances for precipitation. Therefore I didn't make any adjustments
and went with a slight chance for rain/snow during these periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Intense west winds are the main concern through the taf period
with afternoon wind gusts near or over 50kts expected. Wind speeds
will remain very strong all afternoon and into the evening hours
and visibility restrictions in blowing dust are possible. Wind
speeds will decrease tonight, but will increase again by mid/late
morning Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Today:
Extreme Fire Danger is expected today across the whole area with
single digit to teens relative humidities and winds sustained at
over 30 mph for most of the day. A Red Flag Warning was issued
Sunday morning and was not changed, it is in effect from noon to
7pm. Do not burn, any fire that develops will get out of control
quickly and be very dangerous.

Tuesday:
Fire weather watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon.
While conditions won't be as extreme as today, are currently
expecting RH values to be range from 10-20 percent and 25-35 MPH
sustained winds with gusts 35 to 45 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

UPDATE...Fay
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Fay
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright/Mangels

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 6, 10:12 AM CST, 1 hour 33 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1012 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1012 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A High Wind Warning and a Red Flag Warning are in effect for the
entire outlook area today. Please see the warning messages for
further information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday across the entire
area. Additionally, while it is not as extreme as Today or
Tuesday, fire weather conditions will be near-critical again on
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 wildfire, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Rooks

When: March 6, 11:45 AM CST to March 7, 12:00 AM CST
Where: Rooks forecast zone
Property damage: $100,000
Crop damage: $300,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 39.350, -99.325 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

This fire started shortly before noon CST on March 6th about 3 miles west-southwest of Stockton. The fire spread east, getting within a mile of southern portions of Stockton, also threatening storage tanks of diesel fuel and fertilizer. A frontal boundary passed through, switched wind direction and pushed the fire just off to the southeast. In total, this fire burned approximately 10,000 acres before being extinguished about 3 miles south-southeast of Stockton. One home was destroyed by the fire.

High Wind, Smith

When: March 6, 4:30 PM CST
Where: Smith forecast zone
Measured: 51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 39.785, -98.785 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A 59 MPH wind gust was measured by a mesonet site located 2 miles south of Lebanon.

What these are

Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kansas in 2017 Every state in 2017 This day in weather history Warnings in Kansas, March 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 683576, 688430.