A classic heat burst impacted the Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility at Fort Sumner around sunrise with a tremendous wind gust to 73 mph. The temperature rose from 72 to 85 degrees with this wind gust and the relative humidity cratered at the same time.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A classic heat burst impacted the Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility at Fort Sumner around sunrise with a tremendous wind gust to 73 mph. The temperature rose from 72 to 85 degrees with this wind gust and the relative humidity cratered at the same time. No damage was incurred at the balloon facility. Later in the day strong storms developed across northwestern New Mexico and produced spotty reports of penny to nickel size hail and gusty winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 5:46 AM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 646 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .UPDATE... Showers and a few storms lasting longer than expected as they have been drifting south into and across e central NM, so added pops there and up to vicinity of Santa Fe, also lower pops nw NM, for the morning. Most of this should be gone before late morn. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION...558 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016... .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE Pesky convection remains across EC areas and will continue to slide south before stabilizing. TCC/LVS will be impacted in the near term. Don't believe ROW will be impacted. Main crop of SH/TS will occur this afternoon and eve. Many terminal sites are likely to be impacted including gusty outflow wind between 25-35 kt...possible stronger. LVS/TCC/AEG/SAF are likely to be impacted by TS so used VCTS at this time. Other terminal sites such as GUP and ABQ are likely candidates for outflow wind impacts and placed that possibility in a tempo group. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...356 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016... .SYNOPSIS... A very slow eastward progression of the center of the mid and upper level high pressure dome will begin over the next 48 to 60 hour period. A slow and general upward trend in the amount of shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected through the weekend for much though not quite all of the forecast area. Then starting between Monday and Wednesday even more moisture may spread into the west half or two thirds of the area which should further increase the amount of much needed significant precipitation, especially central sections of the state. While a few high temperature records could still be threatened today, overall later in the weekend and much of next week will see the heat ease up a bit most areas. && .DISCUSSION... A slowly southward sinking boundary is fairly evident as of this writing from a little ways north of Tucumcari to a little south through west of Raton. It has helped to trigger a few showers and storms into the predawn hours and it may sag as far as near to a bit south of Tucumcari to perhaps near or a little south of Las Vegas late this morn or early aftn, then the additional showers and storms it triggers will likely generate some outflows somewhat further south and west later this aftn into the eve. Other showers and storms will again generate elsewhere mainly to the west and sw of boundary with emphasis on the north central and west central to sw mtns. Boundary collisions may spark isolated/a few storms farther south across the plains as well toward or by eve. As per the general location of SPC's marginal severe risk in far ne NM, went ahead and indicated gusty winds and small hail for that area but stopped just shy of actually painting all out severe there as it was not a slight risk. Day shift may want or need to update as needed. The monstosity of a high over the Great Basin still looks like it will begin a slow and migration of it's center eastward over the weekend and into early next week. Remnant moisture and perhaps some additional from the s or se due in part from an easterly wave passing s of the state should keep convection quite active across the state. Early next week, models continue to show the main upper high shifting east of the state, with GFS model still stubbornly hanging on to a secondary center to the west. The ECMWF has been very consistent for at least 2 to 3 days with a weak trough developing over NM or near the AZ line early next week and hanging out nearly all week, which would be a nearly ideal scenario for much more widespread wetting rains across much of the fcst area. The Canadian does also, though slightly weaker and skewed more to central and east NM. General consensus is that PWATs should increase as early maybe as the start of the new week across the southwest, and pretty much all the area by Mon aftn. Thus a good portion of, if not all, next week we should be be dancing in the streets as the rain comes down. Still some concern that climatology is still factoring in a bit, but the closer we get to then with the models still supporting the wetter trend the higher our confidence becomes. 43 && .FIRE WEATHER... No major changes to the gridded forecast. Hedged dewpoints thus humidity readings a bit higher for next week based on the Monsoon burst pattern. Hedged dewpoints...thus RH values slightly lower today and lesser extent Saturday for the NW third. Also tried to fuss with the convoluted nature to the plains boundary today. Boundary has made a more southerly penetration into the forecast area thanks to overnight convection. This boundary will serve as a focus for stronger/wetter storms as the day progresses. Near term highlights include Haines 5/6 values for western/central areas today. Despite the marginally dry mid levels of the atmosphere across western/central areas...some wetting rain footprints will result and favor the mountains. The main focus will be found across the northeast third thanks to the aforementioned boundary. Larger footprints of wetting rain will exist with that activity and last well into the overnight hours. Storms that do form across western/central areas will contain unusually strong outflow wind gusts so land agency personnel should take extra precaution for that impact. The upper high will remain centered over the Las Vegas NV area but weaken some thus allow for additional destabilization this afternoon and most likely a little more storm coverage compared to yesterday. Storms will tend to move on the slower side and generally drift towards the east. The NE plains would be the exception due to stronger transport wind speeds and higher severe potential with the storms. Humidity overall will be trending up today compared to yesterdays readings. Humidity values will generally trend higher during the weekend. Storm coverage including wetting rain footprints will also increase this weekend as the upper high weakens and begins its migration eastward. The weaker upper high will lead to additional destabilization and allow storms to readily form over the higher terrain and eventually drift off the terrain. Steering flow for the storms will be on the weaker side. Gusty outflow wind will remain a threat although the stronger readings will diminish slightly...especially Sunday. The haines values will follow suit and begin to lose their edge and significance. Breezy southerly wind flow will strengthen across the eastern plains during the weekend period. The upper high is expected to shift far enough east to allow a fairly robust Monsoon burst pattern to develop next week. This burst pattern would be considered a hybrid because a weakness or wave in the upper levels may sit over the state during a portion of the week. This wave would only help to destabilize the atmosphere and keep the wetting rain threat alive and well. There is a little bit of uncertainty as to how strong this wave would be and also timing and position. That is important in terms of steering flow for the storms and the have versus have nots in terms of wetting rain footprints. Either way...the western half should be favored with lesser amounts across the east. However, if a westerly steering flow can develop sooner then eastern areas will receive a little more precipitation. Also...the high pressure dome or cell is expected to be much weaker versus what has occurred the past few weeks. This means that the capping inversion found over the eastern plains will be weaker and could unexpectedly break at times...thus creating some wetting potential through the week. High confidence that the humidity values will increase as the week progresses and that they will be unusually high thanks to the burst pattern. Twenty four hour humidity readings will be some of the highest if not highest values so far this Monsoon season. Daytime temps actually trend below normal as the week progresses...especially across the western half to two thirds...a little above normal east. Models keep the moisture going into the following weekend with a trough off the west coast and the mean high to the east. 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 43
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 615 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016 NMZ501>540-301215- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA- MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 615 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AND 9 PM MDT ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NEW MEXICO. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY STARTING BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INCREASING EVEN FURTHER INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BE QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING OR AT LEAST HIGH AND FAST FLOWS IN SMALL STREAMS AND ARROYOS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND IN SOME CASES OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AND 9 PM MDT FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND A FEW OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL. 43
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 148 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:00 UTC.
3 hail, 1 high wind, 1 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility reported a classic heat burst event with a peak wind gust of 73 mph.
Two Forest Service employees were caught between two flooded Forest Service roads on the North Fire burn scar. Each road dipped into an arroyo where the water was bank-full. They waited out the flood before leaving the area.
Gallup airport.
Dime to nickel size hail near Ponderosa.
Penny size hail for 2 to 3 minutes near Canones.
Nickel size hail at Northern and Unser.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 641332, 691466, 641308, 641309, 641310, 641311.