An upper level disturbance produced thunderstorms with heavy rain that resulting in a couple of localized flash flooding events.
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The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance produced thunderstorms with heavy rain that resulting in a couple of localized flash flooding events.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 2:08 PM CST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016 At 2 PM CDT...region under a mantle of clouds with some breaks in the southeast. Scattered popcorn light showers noted with some thunderstorms in northern Illinois. Upper low disturbance responsible for the clouds and seasonably cool temperatures will move east later tonight and Saturday. Next disturbance associated with a warm front may impact the region on Monday. Temperatures are seasonably cool with upper 60s northwest to near 80 degrees in extreme southeast for late July. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016 Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average with main issue the end of light showers and extent of low clouds and light fog tonight into Saturday morning. Area highs and lows should be within 3 degrees of forecast. Tonight...clouds with any lingering light showers and possibly isolated brief storm should gradually end by mid to late evening. Some drizzle may be possible with light to moderate fog for evening shift to monitor. Area mins should tend to be in the lower 60s northwest to the middle 60s southeast. Saturday...still mostly cloudy to cloudy overall with some partial clearing possible in the afternoon hours. Isolated showers may be possible mid day as convective temperature is approached. Any precipitation coverage should be light and quite spotty. Highs should remain below normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s with light north winds and decreasing dewpoints. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016 Overview: The synoptic models are hinting at a favorable setup for MCS development through the Upper Mississippi Valley - along the northeast periphery of the heat dome Monday into Wednesday. While the details are unclear, heat indices may exceed 100 F at times next week - especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Saturday Night through Sunday...Sfc high pressure in control over the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley, bringing near normal temps and pleasant conditions. Sunday Night into Monday morning...850-700mb warm air advection gets going in the Central Plains and Midwest. Question is what kind of eastward progression is made into Monday morning. Some of the latest guidance (GFS/NAM) locate the nose of the low-level jet into southwest Iowa - where a convective complex may fire and slide ESE. The CAPE/theta-e gradient will dictate the track of the storms which may end up tracking to the southwest of the forecast area. At this time, it is a close call and too far away to mention much more than 30-40 POPs. Monday Afternoon through Thursday...Yet another pattern change. The culprit is a seasonally strong upper-low progged to track through Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Low-level mass fields responding to this synoptic area of low pressure will result in a south-southwest flow from the sfc to 850mb and significant warm air advection in the Central U.S. Latest Model-blend temps, beyond Monday, are in the upper 80s/lower 90s as 1000-500mb thickness values increase to levels comparable to the prolonged very muggy period which ended this past Monday. The GFS/ECMWF are near 582 dam. There is potential for heat indices to exceed 100 F - best chances on Wednesday and Thursday. And if significant rain falls earlier in the week, we will have to watch for dewpoints spiking near 80 F, again. The NAEFS now advects the 24 C 850mb isotherm slightly closer to eastern Iowa/western Illinois - similar to where this ensemble had 850mb temps peaking at during the last extremely humid period. The return interval for ~24 C 850mb temps during early August is once every year or two (~1.5 standard deviations above the mean). Sfc temps will then be dependent on degree of clearing or mixing Wednesday and Thursday aftn. Regardless, the humidity will be oppressive. Thursday Evening through Friday...Shower and thunderstorm chances increase in association with weakening cold front. The slow moving nature of the boundary, high PWAT air, and light mid-level winds mean heavy rainfall rates are possible with any storms. Uttech && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016 An upper level and weak surface low will continue to produce widespread clouds with extended periods of MVFR and IFR conditions the next 24 hours. Lower visibilities in fog may also occur tonight into mid morning on Saturday. Afternoon heating this afternoon will provide scattered showers and thunderstorms with the greatest risk at CID/DBQ/MLI terminals until at least 21z which is handled as a tempo group. Winds will be light and tend to favor the north the next 24 hours. && .DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && SYNOPSIS...Nichols SHORT TERM...Nichols LONG TERM...Uttech AVIATION...Nichols
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 407 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-300915- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 407 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA ON SATURDAY. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS...HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY...AND PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HAASE/RP KINNEY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024- 292200- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JO DAVIESS- STEPHENSON-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM- MERCER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...DAVENPORT... BETTENDORF...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...GALENA... FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND... GENESEO...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 ...ISOLATED...BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... HEATING ALONG A DIFFUSE WIND SHIFT LINE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUD BASES AND A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD NOT REACH THE GROUND. ANY FUNNEL CLOUD THAT DOES FORM SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY DAMAGE SINCE WITH THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE GROUND NICHOLS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
444 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0439 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E STOCKTON 42.35N 89.95W
07/29/2016 M2.20 INCH JO DAVIESS IL TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL IN JUST OVER AN HOUR. RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF.
&&
MCCLUREThe Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 55 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:09 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The emergency manager reported water was over Highway 30 near Sawyer Road.
The public reported several roads were closed in Morrison due to high water across the roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 653466, 653465.