A cluster of thunderstorms occurred along a stationary front that was located over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. This slow-moving cluster produced local flash flooding of roads in Perry County.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A cluster of thunderstorms occurred along a stationary front that was located over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. This slow-moving cluster produced local flash flooding of roads in Perry County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 8:14 PM CST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 914 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016 Mid level short wave moving ese toward the forecast area has begun to generate sct convection over sw IL and far ern MO this evening. Band of 1000-1200 J/KG CAPEs ahead of this cluster may allow for it to survive a bit longer into the night. 01Z HRRR also suggests this. Thus, will need to increase shower/thunderstorm chcs some to allow for isolated to scattered activity tonight, especially over sw IL and se MO. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016 Average confidence in the short term mainly due to model differences. Our area continues to be locked into a nearly stagnant pattern in the short term. An approaching frontal boundary will approach and become quasi-stationary somewhere across our CWA through the period. Exactly where it comes to rest is the big question, and of course will be a major determining factor on where to expect the highest precipitation probabilities. Aloft our region remains in a broad H5 trough with a seemingly never ending parade of upper level disturbances. The combination of copius deep layer moisture/instability, upper support, and the presence of the surface boundary, is expected to generate multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Timing/placement of synoptic features still showing some variance among models so trying to pin down the highest probabilities still difficult at this time. Temperatures should remain just below normal through the period. No heat headlines expected, but with dewpoints remaining in the 70s, humid/sticky conditions will continue. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016 For Monday into Tuesday, models keep a frontal system draped from northwest to southeast from southern Illinois into west Kentucky. Weak impulses moving along the front, along with diurnal heating, will keep good chances of showers and thunderstorms across our region Monday and Tuesday, with a bit lower chances Monday night. By Tuesday night, models show the front a bit farther east, and with loss of daytime heating, the focus for any showers and storms will be across our eastern counties. With the moist, unstable air mass across the region, mainly diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible primarily during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday, with a lull in activity Wednesday night and Thursday night. On Friday, models are in pretty good agreement showing a cold front approaching our region, moving it into central Illinois and central Missouri by 00z Saturday. This should give us increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the day Friday. South winds through the week will give us increasing warmth and humidity. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points will generally be in the lower to middle 70s, which will give us heat indices around 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday, and in the 100 to 105 degree range Wednesday through Friday, especially across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and far west Kentucky. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016 A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain poised just to the north and west of the TAF sites through the period. Could possibly see a return IFR cigs/vsbys 08-14z...retuning to VFR by 16-18Z Sat. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...GM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 442 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-301000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 442 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL...WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE DAILY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE HEAT INDEX WILL AGAIN REACH OR EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS DAILY, BEGINNING MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTER REPORTS OF RAINFALL AND FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM HEAVY RAIN ELKTON 36.81N 87.16W
07/29/2016 E0.00 INCH TODD KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
HEAVY RAIN HAS PRODUCED STREET FLOODING ON SEVERAL
STREETS, INCLUDING ALLENSVILLE RD, S PERRY, WATER ST.
&&
DPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1008 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM HEAVY RAIN MURRAY 36.61N 88.32W
07/29/2016 M2.60 INCH CALLOWAY KY TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTS 2.6 INCHES RAIN SINCE 6 PM.
&&
DPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1013 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0858 PM FLOOD 4 W HAZEL 36.51N 88.40W
07/29/2016 CALLOWAY KY EMERGENCY MNGR
CAR STRANDED IN HIGH WATER. NO REPORTS OF INJURIES.
&&
DPSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016
ILZ080-081-084-085-300530-
PERRY IL-JACKSON IL-WILLIAMSON IL-FRANKLIN IL-
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...
AT 1149 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF DU QUOIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHRISTOPHER...ZEIGLER...BUSH...AND HURST.
LAT...LON 3794 8871 3785 8871 3768 8881 3790 8927
3807 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 295DEG 21KT 3796 8914The Paducah radar (KPAH), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Street flooding occurred throughout the city of DuQuoin. Water was over U.S. Highway 51 north of DuQuoin. About six inches of water was over Highway 154 west of Pinckneyville. Between Tamaroa and Pinckneyville, a railroad track was washed out.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646957.