Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a frontal boundary and upper level wave of energy this afternoon. This resulted in flash flooding for the second day in a row near Mount Sterling, while flooding also occurred in McCreary County after repeated days of rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a frontal boundary and upper level wave of energy this afternoon. This resulted in flash flooding for the second day in a row near Mount Sterling, while flooding also occurred in McCreary County after repeated days of rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 12:45 PM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1114 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 The more widespread rain has now mostly dissipated and moved east based on latest scans from WSR-88D radar. We will see more in the way of isolated activity until the next wave moves east out of western and central KY this afternoon. The HRRR seems to have a decent handle on this so blended toward that at this point. Therefore updated hourly grids to deal with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Hourly grids have been updated based on radar, observation, and short term model trends. This fine tuned the timing of the area of showers moving across the CWA at this time. These should diminish as they near the WV and VA borders. A lull in the late morning to early afternoon is anticipated, followed by redevelopment by mid afternoon. Any lingering fog will lift and dissipate by 9 AM EDT. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 405 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Early this morning, a ridge of high pressure was centered north of the Bahamas with another ridge centered over the Southwestern Conus. A closed low was over Eastern Canada with troughing extending south to the TN Valley. Weak shortwaves are moving through the flow, with one currently nearing Eastern KY with another more prominent shortwave slowly moving toward the Mid MS Valley region. Meanwhile a nearly stationary surface frontal zone extends from the Mid Atlantic states to a weak wave of low pressure over Eastern OH and then extending southwest to the north of the OH River and then into the Central Plains. The airmass over the Commonwealth is currently not as most as 24 hours ago with PW on the order of a quarter of an inch less at present. Skies had become mostly clear to clear during the evening and this has combined with moist low levels from recent rain and light winds to lead to low stratus and fog formation. Dense fog has developed in some locations, but this has begun to lift with just stratus remaining in some locations in the west as some mid level clouds move into the the area or develop. Recent radar imagery indicated some showers had developed in the Casey County vicinity, but this development is not at least as of yet as substantial as suggested by the 7Z HRRR. Some isolated to possibly scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm may develop prior to dawn and slowly move east across the area. Recent short term model guidance indicates that what manages to develop should dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. During this same time, lingering fog and stratus should also begin to lift and dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise. A generally diurnal peak in convection is anticipated today, however, during the afternoon to early evening hours in advance of one or more weak shortwaves moving through the flow. The strongest upstream shortwave is expected to rotate into the OH Valley tonight and move east of the area on Saturday. Thus, convection even at night, especially late tonight cannot be ruled out as the area is expected to remain in the warm sector through the end of the period. Scattered convection, again peaking during the afternoon to early evening is anticipated again for Saturday. The moist airmass in place should lead to considerable cumulus development and scattered showers and thunderstorms today with mid and high clouds also passing by from time to time. All of this should again limit diurnal ranges today with highs again near if not a degree or two below normal for highs. Lows will average a couple of degrees above normal with the moist airmass in place. Highs on Saturday should average near normal for the end of July. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Aside from a brief dry period Tuesday and Tuesday night, the extended will feature daily and nightly chances of showers and storms across eastern Kentucky. The focus of these showers and storms will be a frontal boundary that is forecast to stall across the region. A few weak disturbances moving along the front will also help spark showers and storms across our area, particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak heating. A warm and moist air mass will remain in place during the period, making for very muggy conditions. Daily high temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s, with nightly lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 There is a mix of VFR and MVFR to start the period. WSR-88D radar shows that showers and storms have expended across the region as expected. This will make TAFs difficult given the scattered nature and uncertainty attached. Right now will add a TEMPO group to SME/LOZ where activity will be more prevalent. The storms will be mostly diurnally driven and we should see activity wane by this evening. Then we will see potential for fog/stratus issues overnight into the AM hours once again. The question is to what extent given cloud cover and therefore kept most MVFR. Did opt to go lower at SME/LOZ where more storm activity is expected. Light winds will be the story, but any storm could produce a brief higher gust. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1056 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-301800- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1056 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. JP/DJ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
KYZ079-080-083>086-291930-
WAYNE-LAUREL-KNOX-WHITLEY-MCCREARY-PULASKI-
237 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...LAUREL...
KNOX...WHITLEY...MCCREARY...PULASKI...
AT 236 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER PARKERS
LAKE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF WHITLEY CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIAMSBURG...WHITLEY CITY...DORTHAE...VOX...CLATE...MOORE HILL...
BERTHA STATION...SUTTONS MILL...KING...EMMANUEL...MCHARGUE...CLIO...
DENNEY...HUXLEY...PARMLEYSVILLE...TUTTLE...JELLICO CREEK...GROVE...
REDBIRD AND HOLLY BAY REC. AREA.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND
32.
U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN KNOX COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 16 AND 26.
U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 2.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3661 8486 3690 8465 3707 8392 3667 8390
3665 8395 3659 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 267DEG 29KT 3685 8448
GREIFSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
KYZ086-115>117-292015-
PERRY-KNOX-LESLIE-CLAY-
312 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PERRY...KNOX...LESLIE...CLAY...
AT 312 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER COTTONGIN...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF MANCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZARD...BARBOURVILLE...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...DALEY...DIABLOCK...
GREEN ROAD...GIRDLER...SPRULE...COTTONGIN...WENDOVER...HAVEN...
CANNON...EROSE...MOZELLE...HOSKINSTON...HOOKER...PANCO...
HORSE CREEK JUNCTION AND FREW.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 57.
U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN KNOX COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 7...
AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 14.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3686 8391 3703 8391 3705 8387 3707 8389
3709 8386 3712 8389 3711 8392 3723 8392
3728 8315 3701 8314 3702 8318 3700 8323
3697 8326 3694 8333 3692 8349 3694 8351
3695 8359 3694 8357 3690 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 264DEG 26KT 3705 8380
GREIFThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 100 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:14 UTC.
1 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported water four to five inches deep covering Kentucky Highway 92 near Hollyhill.
Water was swiftly flowing over the roadway at the intersection of Levee and Kiddville Roads south of Mount Sterling, making them impassable. First responders reported to a swift water rescue when a man became trapped in his car as it was engulfed by flood waters. Later reports indicated the man was uninjured.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 642461, 642464.