Brief high wind occurred on Lopez Island.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
Brief high wind occurred on Lopez Island.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 16, 10:10 AM PST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1010 AM PST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BECOME LOCALLY WINDY. WET AND
POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. MORE RAIN WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. JUST IN THE
FIRST 48 HOURS...WE HAVE CONCERNS THAT INCLUDE ADDITIONAL RAIN
WITH RENEWED FLOODING...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND STRONG WIND.
FOR TODAY...WE HAVE A STRONG WARM FRONT SPREADING INTO WRN WA. THE
FRONT IS AT THE NOSE OF A 180 KT UPPER JET THAT IS CUTTING ACROSS
THE SRN GULF OF ALASKA. THE WARM FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A 974 MB
SURFACE LOW THAT IS PASSING NEAR NORTHERN HAIDA GWAII. AS WITH
MOST STRONG WARM FRONTS...THE WIND CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED IN
SOUTHEAST-PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR...WHERE GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVED AND
POSSIBLY EXCEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDING
MOUNTAIN SNOW...RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF PRECIP SPREADING INLAND WITH
THE WARM FRONT. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IS FAIRLY
COOL...WITH MOUNTAIN PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 20S RIGHT
NOW. SO PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW AT ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN HIGHWAY
PASSES...THEN SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN ALONG THE MAJOR HIGHWAY CORRIDORS.
ON TUESDAY...THE CORE OF THE STRONG JET WILL HAVE MOVED FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO SRN B.C.. THIS WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SRN
B.C. ON TUE. IN ADDITION...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WRN WA IN THE AFTN AND EVNG. THIS WILL REALLY
TIGHTEN SOUTHERLY AND THEN SW-W PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER WRN
WA...LEADING TO A HIGH WIND EVENT IN PARTS OF WRN WA. STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY WILL COME WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS THAT DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOCATIONS MOST PRONE TO
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AREAS OPEN TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...SUCH AS LAND AREAS ON THE U.S. SIDE OF THE STRAIT...THE
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA...AND PERHAPS THE EVERETT AREA. ANOTHER
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS THAT IS COMMON IN WESTERLY FLOW IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE OLYMPIC MTNS...WITH HIGH WIND POSSIBLE ALONG A
SWATH FROM HOQUIAM TO SHELTON TO TACOMA AND SOUTHERN KING COUNTY.
OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE WINDY FOR SURE...BUT THESE TWO SWATHS BEAR
THE MOST SCRUTINY.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR RAIN DETAILS AND HYDRO IMPACTS.
HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
NOW BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEYOND THURSDAY THE MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH THE GFS DRYING THINGS OUT WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL
STAY WITH THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. FELTON
&&
.AVIATION...A STRONG WARM FRONT HAS STARTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN WA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE CASCADES TONIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING TURNING MORE WESTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS STABLE WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL LEVELS BECOMING MOIST LATER TODAY AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND RAIN DEVELOPS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.
KSEA...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THICKENING MID CLOUDS AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING INTO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND 3-6 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. SCHNEIDER/SMR
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO MOST WATERS TODAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF GALES TO MOST WATERS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR SOME
WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY WITH EASING ONSHORE FLOW AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BY
WEDNESDAY. WEST SWELL 18-22 FEET WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TUESDAY...THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
A WEAKER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SCHNEIDER/SMR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...PRECIP INENSITIES REALLY PICK UP OVER THE MTNS THIS
EVNG...JUST IN TIME FOR SNOW LEVELS TO RISE INTO THE 5000-6000 FT
RANGE. WITH SUCH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE
INTENSE AND FOCUSED OVER MTN HEADWATERS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS 24-HOUR
PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 5-8 INCHES OVER THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING LATE TUE EVNG. IN A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME LIKE
WE ARE EXPECTING ON TUE...THE SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASIN TENDS TO
GET SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
RIVERS HAVE BARELY HAD TIME TO RECOVER AND RECEDE FROM THIS LAST
ROUND OF FLOODING. IN ADDITION THE SOILS ARE SATURATED LEADING TO
PRIME RUN OFF CONDITIONS. MANY RIVERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FLOOD
AGAIN WITH THE RIVERS POSSIBLY CRESTING HIGHER THAN THE FLOOD OVER
THE WEEKEND. HANER/FELTON
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND
VICINITY-CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTIES-CENTRAL COAST-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-
LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-NORTH COAST-OLYMPICS-SEATTLE AND
VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT
COUNTY-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN WHATCOM
COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND
VICINITY-CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTIES-CENTRAL COAST-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-
LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-NORTH COAST-OLYMPICS-SAN JUAN
COUNTY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
AREA-CENTRAL COAST-NORTH COAST-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN
SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
&&
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTMLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Lopez Island recorded 41g54 mph for a few hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 603536.