Low pressure moving through brought strong winds to the southern Oregon Cascades and South Central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Low pressure moving through brought strong winds to the southern Oregon Cascades and South Central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 4, 9:01 PM PST, 4 hours 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
901 PM PST WED FEB 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF MAJOR STORMS WILL COLLECTIVELY CAUSE A
LONG-DURATION...HIGH-IMPACT RAIN AND WIND EVENT IN MUCH OF
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PAST
5 DAYS OF NAEFS ENSEMBLE DATA...A COLLECTION OF MANY DIFFERENT
COMPUTER MODEL RUNS...SUGGEST A ONCE-IN-TEN TO ONCE-IN-THIRTY YEAR
EVENT IN TERMS OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR LATE JANUARY/EARLY
FEBRUARY TIMEFRAME. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND HIGH WINDS WE EXPECT IN MANY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE HAVE A HOST OF PRODUCTS OUT TO HIGHLIGHT THE FORTHCOMING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT
NPWMFR FOR THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...EAST SIDE...AND THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...TONIGHT
WE'LL BE LOOKING AT OTHER AREAS SUCH AS THE MEDFORD AREA FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AREAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED AT FFAMFR FOR THE
COAST...WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SPECIFIC RIVER POINTS OF THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE...AND THE SOUTH
FORK COQUILLE RIVER AT MYRTLE POINT. A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK AT
ESFMFR DISCUSSES THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT
CFWMFR HIGHLIGHTS THE HEAVY SURF THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
COASTLINE DURING THE STORMS.
PLEASE SEE THE THOROUGH DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THESE SIGNIFICANT STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL 4 OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE TO 30-50 KNOTS AROUND 2000
FEET ABOVE GROUND. A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS WILL CAUSE A MAJOR
LONG-DURATION WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PEAKING ON
FRIDAY...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT
LEAST.
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BUT
THERE IS SIMPLY TOO MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS AND VIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. THE
UMPQUA BASIN NEVER BROKE OUT OF IFR CIGS AT ALL. EXPECT LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT. CIGS MAY CLIMB SLIGHTLY TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.
VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMFR AND KLMT BUT CLOUD DECKS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
KMFR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BOTH KMFR AND KLMT WILL STILL
BE AFFECTED BY WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT MOUNTAIN WAVES GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 400 PM PST WEDNESDAY 4 FEBRUARY 2015...A SERIES
OF STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH SOUTH WINDS PEAKING AT
GALES AND STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS WILL BE
UP TO 65 KT AND SEAS WILL BE 16 TO 24 FEET. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES OR
STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STRONG FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH STORM WINDS POSSIBLE. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND, A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL FRONT MAY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND CONTINUED VERY
STEEP SEAS. THE LONG DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE STORMS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY STEEP AND DANGEROUS SHORT
PERIOD SEAS. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM PST WED FEB 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STRONG BUT WARM STORMS WILL BRING
LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. FRONTS WILL
FOLLOW VERY CLOSELY BEHIND EACH OTHER THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY,
SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
A SIGN OF THIS SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER IS THE INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. WINDS HAVE
GUSTED TO 47 MPH AT WEED SINCE LATE MORNING AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
CHANGE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE FIRST FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE BIG PICTURE OF WHAT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IS LARGELY
CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO
INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...ISSUE FLOOD
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE RIVER FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY...EXPAND THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COAST, JOSEPHINE,
AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES...EXPAND THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO MENTION
RAPID RISES ON RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS IN DOUGLAS, JOSEPHINE,
JACKSON, AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...ADJUST WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH THE SECOND/STRONGEST FRONT EARLY FRIDAY...UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THURSDAY FOR THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY, AND
EAST SIDE TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS...AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST OREGON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE TWO BIGGEST FEATURES ARE WIND AND RAIN:
WIND...THE SHASTA VALLEY IS ALREADY SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND OF
20 TO 30 MPH. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST..EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE AT THE COAST WITH SPEED OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED
AROUND CAPE BLANCO NORTH TO NEAR LANGLOIS AND SOUTH TO AROUND PORT
ORFORD. AREAS OF STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY SOUTH WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH
RANGE NEAR WEED. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO
WARNING SPEED LATER TONIGHT WITH GUST AT WEEK NEAR 60 MPH.
IN THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT..STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OREGON. STRONG CROSS WINDS ARE LIKELY ON HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER
LAKE AND PAISLEY. PART OF HWY 140 EAST OF LAKEVIEW COULD ALSE SEE
STRONG CROSS WINDS LATER TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS 50-70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
AT THE COAST, JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR THE COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE
COASTAL RANGE IN CURRY COUNTY. WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
FLOW...DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT TOTALS IN THE UMPQUA, ROGUE,
AND SHASTA VALLEYS. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS OR ON
THE EAST SIDE UNTIL FRIDAY BUT TOTALS BY THE END OF SATURDAY WILL
STILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 1.50 TO 3 INCHES IN THOSE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND 0.50 TO 2 INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE. SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FINALLY NOTICEABLY DROP AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INLAND ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND THE
SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4500 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER WITH AREAS OF
MORNING WEST SIDE VALLEY FOG.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ030-031-624-625.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ORZ021>024-028-615-616-618-619.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ORZ027-028-617-620>623.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ026-621>623.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ORZ620-621.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
CAZ085-285.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ080-280.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ082-282.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
NSK/FJB/CCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Summit RAWS recorded a gust to 59 mph at 05/0203 PST and a gust to 62 mph at 05/0303 PST.
The Parker Mountain RAWS recorded a gust to 79 mph at 05/2340 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 552223, 552222.