High Surf in Hawaii, February 5 to 8, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
820 PM HST WED FEB 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PASSING SHOWERS. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE DOWN THE CHAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS A DIFFUSE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING OVER KAUAI AT THIS HOUR. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS MOVING AT A RATHER QUICK 35
MPH THIS EVENING. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING THE SHOWER BANDS MAKING
WAY OVER KAUAI AND ONTO OAHU THIS EVENING. LIKE THE CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE...SHOWERS ARE COMING IN AS SCATTERED BANDS. OVERALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL SPURTS OF MODERATE
SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVING ONTO MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND LATER
TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY SO THEY WILL BE
SHORT LASTING. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS STATESIDE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AROUND
THE PASSING SHOWERS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE...AND ON THURSDAY FOR THE EAST. A FEW LIGHT PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FOCUS OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
LEEWARD AND WESTWARD FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. WILL WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT BY FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.

DRIER WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER
HAWAII. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY IN
PLACES ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DOWNSLOPE
ACCELERATION WILL OCCUR. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW IN
THE FRONTS WAKE.

WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG OVER THE HIGH SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND
WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE NORTH THROUGH EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT AIRMET TANGO
CONTINUE FOR THE TURBULENCE.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDING IN ON THE WESTERLY FLOW ARE AT TIMES
OBSCURING THE MOUNTAINS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS SUCH AIRMET
SIERRA CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE CURRENT BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. A
RATHER LARGE...BUT MIXED PERIOD...ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST
SWELL...WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY...AND LINGER ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN EVEN LARGER WEST NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR MOST WATERS AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SWELLS
WILL ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER
EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND
FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...M BALLARD