High Wind in California, February 5 to 6, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
251 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS ARE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE AT THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN SISKYOU COUNTY
AND MOUNT SHASTA REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE COAST FROM
CAPE BLANCO TOWARDS GOLD BEACH, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED
AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OF BIGGER CONCERN COULD BE ON
SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NEAR
130W WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST,
HEADLANDS AND OVER THE MARINE WATERS. BELOW, WE'LL ADDRESS THE
RAIN AND WIND IMPACT.

RAIN: MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO HIT THE SOUTH
COAST, COAST RANGE, WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THE HARDEST.
THE WPC QPF FORECAST IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC,
BUT THEY SHOW HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THEY WILL HAVE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW, THUS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION RATES. FORECASTED RAIN TOTAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE AS FOLLOWS: 5-8 INCHES FOR THE COAST, COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT TOTALS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY BUT TOTALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT WITH 1.50 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND 0.25 TO AN INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH JUST NEAR CHILOQUIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN/SOUTH SISKIYOU COUNTY. FLOOD CONCERNS STILL
EXIST, THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN
SCARS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. DETAILS FOR ALL OF THE PRODUCTS
CAN BE FOUND AT FFAMFR. WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OT FRIDAY
IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FLOODING WILL OCCUR.

OF NOTE, THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN
INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND IT SUGGEST THE
MAIN SLUG OF RAIN WILL COME IN TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT EAST WITH
OFF/ON RAIN BEHIND IT LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN
QPF AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. -PETRUCELLI

.WIND...THE SHASTA VALLEY IS ALREADY SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND OF
SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY
LIKELY TO SEE SUSTAINED 40 TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. BY FRIDAY MORNING
EVEN THE YREKA AREA COULD SEE SUSTAINED WIND 35 TO 45 MPH.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WIND READING SHOWS 45 MPH WINDS NEAR CAPE
BLANCO. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATION NEAR THE CAPE. WITH
BUOY 15 OFF PORT ORFORD EXPERIENCING WIND GUST TO 55 MPH..EXPECT
COASTAL JET TO BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVERNIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL
BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF COOS BAY THROUGH CAPE BLANCO INTO PORT ORFORD
AND GOLD BEACH. WINDS SHOULD ABATE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 70
MPH. TRAFFIC ALONG HWY 140 COULD BE AFFECTED ESPECIALLY DURING THE
STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY THAT IS EXPOSED. THIS WILL BE MAINLY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONG WINDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WE EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR MEDFORD
AIRPORT SHOWS WE COULD SEE WIND GUST TO 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS GUST SPEED IS LOWER THAN THE
CUSTOMARY HIGH WIND CRITERIA..BECAUSE THE GUST IS EXPECTED IN THE
POPULATED AREA WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING TO ERROR ON THE
SAFE SIDE. /FB

A DRYING TREND IS STILL IN THE WORKS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET, BUT THERE
WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SPEED SHEAR,
TURBULENCE AND MVFR CIGS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEED SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AT ALL 4 TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND WHILE SOME
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT ROSEGURG MAINTAIN LIGHT
WINDS AT TIMES. A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS WILL CAUSE A MAJOR LONG-
DURATION WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PEAKING ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST.
ADDITIONALLY...MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED...AS STRONG
SOUTH FLOW IMPACTS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TERRAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PST THURSDAY 5 FEBRUARY 2015...A SERIES OF
STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL BE 16 TO 24 FEET.  ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LONG DURATION AND
FETCH OF THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY
STEEP AND DANGEROUS SHORT PERIOD SEAS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021>024-028-615-616-618-619.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORZ026-617-622.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-028-617.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ026-620>622.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORZ620-621.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ623.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080>083-085-280>282-284-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-284.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ080-280.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-280.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
154 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
02/05/2015  M1.02 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 14 HOURS. OBSERVER
            LOCATION 1 MI S OF OBRIEN.

&&

MND