Abnormally dry conditions during the latter part of the summer into the early part of fall led to moderate(D2) drought conditions over portions of Eastern Arkansas during the early part of November. The drought had little impact with agriculture as the dry weather allowed crops to be harvested and winter wheat to be planted.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Abnormally dry conditions during the latter part of the summer into the early part of fall led to moderate(D2) drought conditions over portions of Eastern Arkansas during the early part of November. The drought had little impact with agriculture as the dry weather allowed crops to be harvested and winter wheat to be planted. However, the dry conditions did elevate the risk of wildfires. River and lake levels were also at low levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:44 PM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SUBSTANTIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. TVT PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS... PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LA/MS GULF COAST. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN NOW JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK A MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE MID SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRANSLATES EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN TODAY AND LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. CJC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS EXTENDED IFR EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHORT TERM CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT... GIVEN THE EARLIER PARTIAL DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS... IS ONSET OF FOG/LIFR CIGS. EXTENDED OVERRUNNING EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF VFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT JBR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCES OF VFR SHOULD QUICKLY CLOSE DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...WITH ELEVATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH... INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND REINFORCING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST INVERSION. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 416 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011130- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 416 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SJM
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions diminished to moderate (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions diminished to moderate (D1) by the middle of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 617721, 617722.