Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Alabama, November 1, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The squall line approaching from the west has gradually been
weakening on its approach to the Tri-State region. Expect this
trend to continue as favorable shear profiles weaken an move north
of the region. Still, moderate to heavy rain is still expected to
reach our western most Florida and Alabama counties in the next
couple of hours. Light showers will be possible as far west as a
line from Albany to Tallahassee through the night. The rain,
clouds, and abundant moisture will keep overnight lows well above
normal. Most locations won't fall below 70 degrees.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...

IFR cigs are likely at ECP and DHN behind the approaching squall
line later tonight. MVFR cigs will be possible at ABY late tonight
as well. All terminals but VLD are expected to fall under MVFR cig
restrictions by mid-morning tomorrow. Another line of storms will
likely impact DHN and ECP late in the day tomorrow.

&&

.Prev Discussion [412 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A ribbon of +PV at the upper levels stretches from southwest Texas
northeastward into the central Plains with another chunk of +PV to
its northwest over the northern Plains. This northern area of
vorticity will pull in some of the southern energy as it swings to
the northeast, with the remainder of the +PV anomaly sinking to the
mid levels as it disperses. This means that the energy aloft
sustaining the low off the coast of Texas is weakening and moving
northeastward as the system approaches our local area. Despite the
weakening, the lowering of the anomaly will increase the 0-6 km and
0-1 km shear over our area ahead of this system with deep layer
shear of around 40 kts and low level shear of 15-20 kts Sunday.
Instability will be the limiting factor with heavy cloud cover ahead
of the system keeping us mostly stable, but we will likely muster up
about 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE in the afternoon, which would be enough to
get a few storms with stronger winds and possibly an isolated
tornado. Locally, the main threat for strong to severe storms will
be in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama in the late
afternoon-early evening hours. The system will begin lifting
northeastward overnight, so most of the threat for storms is
expected to be north of our area overnight Sunday and Monday.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Since the low pressure system will lift to the northeast as it exits
the area, we won't be seeing the typical cooler, drier air we see
this time of year after the storms clear. Instead, we expect warmer
than normal temperatures through the remainder of the week with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s.

.Marine...

As a storm system crosses the area this weekend, winds will be from
the south this weekend to the north Monday night through Tuesday
night, then shift to easterly through the remainder of the period.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria
through the period, although they will be higher in storms Sunday
and Monday, particularly over the western waters.

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days with rain expected over a large portion of the area
tomorrow and Monday.

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals through Monday night will be a widespread area of 1-
3 inches west of a line from Albany to Panama City with increasing
chances for the higher numbers the further northwest you go from
that line. In areas that get repeated training of heavy showers,
totals could be double these values. Unfortunately, the areas with
the greatest risk for heavy rains are the very ones that have seen
the heaviest rains over the past month or so.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  84  71  83  64 /  20  40  50  50  20
Panama City   75  79  73  77  66 /  60  50  70  60  10
Dothan        72  79  69  77  60 /  80  80  80  60  10
Albany        70  80  70  78  61 /  50  60  60  60  20
Valdosta      68  84  71  84  65 /  10  30  40  50  20
Cross City    70  86  72  86  69 /  10  20  20  40  20
Apalachicola  75  80  72  80  65 /  50  30  50  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...WESTON