Drought in California, November 1 to 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
511 PM PDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH SIERRA SNOW TO THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST IS BRINGING
SUNNY SKIES AND BALMY TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR
TRICK OR TREATERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUR WELL ADVERTISED AND VERY WELCOME CHANGE TO WET AND COOLER
WEATHER IS STILL ON THE WAY...AND SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFFSHORE
WILL HANG ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL CA IS CURRENTLY CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COLD FRONT WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ON ITS TREK SOUTHWARD THE FRONT WILL PICK UP A
PLENTIFUL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE THE REMAINS
OF OLAF. INDEED...THE MODELS FORECAST RESPECTABLE THETA-E RIDGING
AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE H20 ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...IT WILL BRING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST SIDE OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. A STRONG 300 MB JET (100+ KTS)
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVY OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF KINGS CANYON. MORNING COMMUTERS ON MONDAY WILL BE DEALING WITH
RAIN SLICKED HIGHWAYS AND POSSIBLY MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ALONG
SOME ROADS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BLUSTERY NW WINDS
WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS. OVER THE HIGH SIERRA...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT NEAR 9K
FEET EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN QUICKLY FALL TO ABOUT 5K FEET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR... SUFFICIENT HEIGHT
FALLS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SQUEEZE OUT HEALTHY SNOWFALL OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OVER THE CWA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...AND IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVE... ISOLATED TSTMS
MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE SJ VLY. SPC IS FOCUSING ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF OUR CWA AS THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
MONDAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE MODELS FORECAST ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO DIVE
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
STALL THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
KEEP THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE KERN COUNTY DESERT APPEARS AS THOUGH
IT WILL BE THE ONLY PART OF OUR CWA THAT GETS ROBBED OF
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THIS REGION...RAIN
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS FINALLY LIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FORECAST A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO RESIDE OVER CA IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IN THE SJ VLY WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN BY THEN. EVEN
AFTER THE VALLEY GETS ITS WETTING RAIN MONDAY...IF SKIES CLEAR
FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME IN THE TWO TO THREE NIGHTS THAT FOLLOW...
PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD EASILY FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT SATURDAY AFTER SPENDING MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BELOW NORMAL.

JUST A FINAL REMINDER THAT WE SWITCH TO STANDARD TIME EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING SO SET YOUR CLOCKS BACK ONE HOUR BEFORE RETIRING TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KINGS... MADERA AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971
KFAT 11-02       88:1949     53:1957     56:2012     34:1946

KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
KBFL 11-02       89:1949     60:1947     58:1992     31:1935

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.

&&

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD