Washington, 2012

Debris Flow and High Wind in Washington, January 22, 2012

January 22, 2012 · NWS SEW · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

High wind occurred on the coast and over the northwest interior. A mudslide near Lake Sammamish damaged 3 homes.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

High wind occurred on the coast and over the northwest interior. A mudslide near Lake Sammamish damaged 3 homes.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 22, 3:35 AM PST, 5 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 22, 3:35 AM PST, 5 hours 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
335 AM PST SUN JAN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TODAY WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE AROUND HOOD CANAL IN THE MORNING. MONDAY WILL SEE A BREAK
IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE DRIER WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL CREATE A STRONG SOUTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE EAST PUGET SOUND
FOOTHILLS NEAR GAPS IN THE TERRAIN WITH CROSS-CASCADE GRADIENTS
INCREASING. SOME MESO MODELS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HOOD CANAL AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW DAMMING COLD AIR AGAINST THE OLYMPICS. LASTLY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 2000
FEET FOR THE CASCADES WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW RACING NORTHEAST TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND DURING
THE DAY TODAY WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 16 TO 19 FEET. EXPECT SEAS TO
REMAIN HIGH OR UP TO 20 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH TIDE PREDICTION FOR LA PUSH IS ABOUT 9.5 FEET AT 1112 AM
TODAY. THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH
THE LARGER WAVES TODAY BUT BEARS WATCHING. DUE TO FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURES TODAY...EXPECT THE TIDAL ANOMALY TO RUN CLOSE TO 2 FEET
ABOUT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WOULD BRING THE TOTAL TIDE CLOSER
TO 11.5 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE
EROSION OF THE JETTY PROTECTING THE TOWN OF LA PUSH AND THE LOWER
QUILEUTE TRIBAL VILLAGE THROUGH MONDAY...THUS THE COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE SWELLS WILL BE AT 20 FEET AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON
MONDAY. THE HIGH TIDE PREDICTION FOR LA PUSH ON MONDAY IS 9.41 FEET
AT 1159 AM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A MOIST WESTERLY FETCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A BIT OF
A SUBTROPICAL TAP. A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS
WET INTO WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE AIMED AT OREGON. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
RAIN DECREASING AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD CLIMO FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY FOR THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER AND THE RIVERS IN THE SOUTH PORTION OF WASHINGTON.

RAIN FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING HAS COMBINED WITH LOWLAND
SNOW-MELT TO DRIVE RIVERS UP. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT OF
MINOR FLOODING ON THE MID AND LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER FOR TODAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW -- IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FOOT RANGE --
AND IT WILL BRING ONLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS. IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL BE A MOUNTAIN SNOW PRODUCER RATHER
THAN A FLOOD PRODUCER. IN ADDITION THE LOWLAND SNOWMELT SHOULD BE
ALL BUT GONE AND A NON-FACTOR BY THAT TIME. THIS SECOND SHOT OF RAIN
COULD RENEW THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH AND CHEHALIS OR
PROLONG MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER REACH OF THE CHEHALIS...SHOULD
THAT OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD FLOW VOLUMES IN THE RIVER BASINS.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS STORM OR SET OF STORMS COULD BRING A COUPLE OF
PUNCHES OF RAIN...HITTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
THE HARDEST. IT COULD BRING A GREATER THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING SO A
FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS OUT FOR THIS. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS A
LIKELY FLOOD CANDIDATE AS WELL AS THE CHEHALIS AND SOME OF ITS
TRIBUTARIES. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT BUT ALL
SHOW ENOUGH RAINFALL TO INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT ONCE AGAIN. THIS
IS SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  JBB/SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW DURING THE DAY TODAY DUE TO A STRONG
OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE 1-3K FT RANGE
TODAY AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF 3-5SM -RA BR. THE MTNS WILL BE
OBSCD.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE LLWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE THE
SURFACE WINDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE S WHILE THE WINDS AT
THE SFC WERE MORE ELY. THUS WILL INCLUDE LLWS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS.

KSEA...WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE ELY DIRECTION THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL INCREASE LLWS. THE SANDPOINT PROFILER SHOWED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
FROM THE S ABOUT 2K FT ABOVE THE SFC. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY
AND SHOULD BE BEAR 2K FT BY 0000 UTC. -RA WILL DEVELOP BY 1800 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...A LOW WELL OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR 970 MB AS IT RACES
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM FORCE WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION ON TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTH
     AND CENTRAL COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR.
    .WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS.
    .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE OLYMPICS TODAY.
    .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HOOD CANAL AREA THIS MORNING
     THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
    .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CASCADES
     THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
    .HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
    .COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR LA PUSH AND THE QUILEUTE LOWER
     VILLAGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
    .FLOOD WATCH SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY.
PZ...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR THE
     COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Event by event

3 high wind, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, North Coast

When
January 22, 9:10 AM PST to 12:50 PM PST
Where
North Coast forecast zone
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by
C-MAN Station

Both Destruction Island and Tatoosh Island, C-MANs off the north coast, recorded sustained wind of 50 KT or greater. This corresponds to gusts on the mainland of 58 mph or greater.

Debris Flow, East Puget Sound Lowlands

When
January 22, 11:00 AM PST to 1:00 PM PST
Where
East Puget Sound Lowlands forecast zone
Reported by
Newspaper

A mudslide damaged 3 houses and took out a section of road near Lake Sammamish.

High Wind, Western Whatcom County

When
January 22, 4:18 PM PST to 6:18 PM PST
Where
Western Whatcom County forecast zone
Measured
35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
Reported by
Mesonet

Cherry Point recorded 40 mph sustained wind. A cooperative observer near Bellingham recorded gusts to 61 mph.

High Wind, Admiralty Inlet Area

When
January 22, 4:33 PM PST to 6:33 PM PST
Where
Admiralty Inlet Area forecast zone
Measured
35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
Reported by
Mesonet

Freeland recorded 40 mph sustained wind.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Debris Flow
A fast-moving slurry of mud, rock and debris, usually on a slope soaked by heavy rain or stripped by a fire.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Washington in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 361424, 362054, 361422, 361423.