Tornadoes and Hail in Arkansas, January 22, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
528 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...AS WELL AS UPDATED
ZONES/FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH #5 AND NEAR TERM TEMP/DEWPT
TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONT WAS PUSHING NORTH INTO NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. TERMINALS
HOT...HRO AND BPK HAVE SEEN THE WORST CONDITIONS SO FAR. OTHER
SITES HAVE SEEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT THAT ALSO MEANS TSRA
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE
MENTIONED TSRA AT THE CENTRAL AND SRN SITES...AND VCSH AT NRN
SITES. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND THE LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY WEST AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH MON MORNING. WINDS SHOULD CALM
DOWN DURING MON AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT A LOT OF VALUE CAN BE ADDED AT THIS TIME AS CURRENT FORECAST
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON OVERALL SITUATION. MODELS AGREE THAT
AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOT ENOUGH
THAT ONE MODEL SOLUTION CAN BE FAVORED OVER ANOTHER SO THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH WILL BE USED ONCE AGAIN.

POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH MAIN
IMPACT AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE LITTLE
ROCK COUNTY WARNING AREA.

A LARGE AND INTENSE TROUGH IS CLEARLY VISIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TO
THE EAST...TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DOES. SYSTEM WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG JET STREAK AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AS
IT KICKS OUT. STRONG SURFACE REFLECTION IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AT THIS TIME AND EXPECTED TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. ALL SIGNS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARDS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL THREATS. THE
QUESTION REMAINS IF THE CONVECTION ORGANIZES QUICK ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT OR IF THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE A BIT
FURTHER EAST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOME  OF THE COUNTRY WARNING AREA UNTIL LATER ON BUT WARM
FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO CLEAR US OUT AND
INTRODUCE DEEP GULF MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DISCREET STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE CELLS MERGE INTO A LINE AND RACE
EAST. CURRENT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS EAST OF US67/167
CORRIDOR COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...TAKING THE STORM THREAT WITH IT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

QUASI ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MILD AND DRY
MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH...EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY COMES INTO PLAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
CARVING OUT AN UPPER LOW AND PLACING IT NEAR EL PASO BY THE END OF
TUESDAY. A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS RETURNS AND OVERRUNS A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS. OVERALL THE
MAX/MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED...WITH MODELS SLOWER
IN MOVING UPPER SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AND
INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
IN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  56  32  57 /  60   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         41  63  38  65 /  40   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       34  55  31  58 /  20   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    39  60  34  63 /  30   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  40  59  34  61 /  50   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     43  62  38  65 /  70   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      38  61  34  63 /  20   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  36  55  31  57 /  30   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        40  56  33  57 /  70   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     42  60  37  63 /  60   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  58  32  60 /  20   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         40  57  33  59 /  60   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      42  59  36  61 /  70   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
245 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.

FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. AREA MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

OTHERWISE...THE FAST MOVING STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHILE A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. MAIN TIME
PERIOD OF EXPECTED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AND
ARKANSAS RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PASSES AND A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 3 AM
MONDAY MORNING.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND TAKE THE RAIN AND
STORMS TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT ARKANSAS AROUND MID WEEK
WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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