Tornado and Hail in Arkansas, January 22, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
554 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
MIDSOUTH AS OF 2PM...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE STARTING TO INCREASE WITH LARGE AREA
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE DELTA AREA
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT SOME CLEARING AND THUS SUN WILL REACH THE MEMPHIS METRO
BETWEEN 4 AND 6PM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP TO
NEAR 70F ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOW AND MID 60S.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THE APPROACHING SPRING STORM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS IT CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS THIS TROUGH WILL SWING NEGATIVELY THROUGH
THE OZARKS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE
FIRST WILL BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH AN EXPECTED SQUALL LINE A FEW HOURS LATER
WITH THE FRONT. BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES NEAR
1200 J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR FOR RAPID STORM ROTATION
AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER WEAK TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE ACTIVITY...BUT A GREATER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE RULE WITH THIS SECOND ROUND.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALL BE NOCTURNAL.

MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION INITIATION FROM STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 22-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH A FORWARD MOTION OF NEAR 50 KTS TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST...REACHING EXTREME WESTERN TENNESSEE BY MID
EVENING...THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST TORNADIC AS DISPLAYED BY THE
LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 1AM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES THROUGH 4AM...WITH QUICK
DRYING CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY IN THE
6PM TO 4AM TIME FRAME AS MOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY UNDERPLAYING THE
CURRENT WIND FIELD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WITH MAINLY ZONAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW
OVER TEXAS SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST AND SURGES SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BRINGING CLOUDY CONDITIONS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE ONE TO TWO
INCH RANGE. THE LATEST EURO EVEN PLACES THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY LATE THURSDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY MENTION IN THE HWO AS FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS NEEDED.

LONG RANGE...A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE CLOSED LOW FOR
THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH PERIOD LOOKING DRY.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY DURING THIS TIME.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE DESIGNATED TEMPO
PERIODS THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING. IFR CEILINGS PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT BECOMING RAPIDLY
VFR TO THE SOUTH. CHANGEABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SUSTAINED AROUND 20
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME WIND
SHEAR/COMPRESSION ISSUES AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP IN EXCESS OF 65
KTS BETWEEN 2-5KFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MVFR
CEILINGS WITH STRATOCU. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR ON MONDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH WEST WINDS CONTINUING BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  47  58  40  60 / 100   0   0   0
MKL  47  56  34  58 / 100  10   0   0
JBR  40  56  34  57 / 100   0   0   0
TUP  50  61  40  61 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-
     DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
     SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-232245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
235 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH.

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE MIDSOUTH...REACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK AREA INCLUDES THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AND FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...TO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS NEAR THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

JAB