Tornado and Hail in Mississippi, January 22 to 23, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
942 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

.UPDATE...VIGOROUS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
MEMPHIS BACK TOWARD WEST CENTRAL LA AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE LINE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS RISK IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF I-20
AND WILL KEEP THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. ITS QUITE
LIKELY THAT THE TORNADO WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE LINE.

WE'RE ALSO WATCHING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM GRENADA BACK TO NATCHEZ FOR POSSIBLE
STRENGTHENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THESE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IF STORMS CAN GET
GOING...DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS...RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-55 AS ITS UNLIKELY THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THOSE AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE POSTED. /BK/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/

.SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT'S
EXPECTED TO IMPACT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT...AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY AS DEW POINTS BEGAN THIS MORNING IN THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S...AND
NOW SIT IN THE MID 60S AREAWIDE.  ONCE AGAIN...THIS IS JUST ONE
INGREDIENT OF MANY THAT CONTINUE TO LOOK TO COME TOGETHER TONIGHT
CAUSING US TO HAVE THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE
DEEP SOUTH.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT'LL
ALSO QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.  AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE RICH GULF
MOISTURE...STRONG DEEP AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CAUSE SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TO BECOME SEVERE...HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OF
60-80 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...AS WELL AS
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.  THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
ALL OF THIS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 6 THIS EVENING UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP ONGOING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN
TO RAMP UP ACROSS MY WEST AS EARLY 6 PM...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER
WHEN THE BETTER ASCENT MOVES IN TO BREAK THE CAP...WHEN SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS BEGIN COMING TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.  HERE THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 50-60 KNOTS AT 850MB
CAUSING STRONG ADVECTION OF 325-330K THETA-E AIR ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THIS
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AT FIRST. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER AND ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF IT WITHIN THIS MOISTURE RICH
AND STRONG SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...CELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP
STEADILY ERODES.  HIGH-RES MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THESE DISCRETE CELLS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 300-400M^2/S^2 WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS DURING THE NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 05-11Z...AS THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800-1100J/KG AND 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-500M^2/S^2.  IN
ADDITION TO THAT...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN 26-29C VERTICAL TOTALS
AS A 120-130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  THIS HAS YIELDED A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA
CATEGORIZED WITH A SLIGHT RISK.  EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES ALONG
THIS LINE WILL BE THE BIGGER CONCERN ALONG WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...BUT TORNADOES STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THIS FRONT.

DUE TO THE QUICK PACE OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA WELL BEFORE DAY BREAK MONDAY MORNING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AND HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH...WHILE LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT COOL INTO THE 40S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF VIGOROUS SHWRS/TSRA EXTENDS FROM MEM TO JUST SOUTH SHV ATTM.
THE LINE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EAST THRU THE NIGHT...PASSING THRU
GTR/JAN 07-08Z...AND COMPLETELY INTO AL BY 12Z OR SO. WINDS WILL BE
SRLY AND GUSTY UNTIL THE LINE PASSES WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS PSBL...WITH
WINDS BECMG SWRLY/WRLY AFTER THE LINE PASSES AND WEAKENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY IS PSBL AS CONVECTION PASSES OTHERWISE
MVFR/VFR CONDS XPCTD MOST AREAS. IFR CIG WILL BE PSBL AT MEI/HBG
AFTER 05Z UNTIL THE STORMS APPROACH. A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  67  42  67 /  70  12   0  43
MERIDIAN      62  70  40  67 /  75  14   0  44
VICKSBURG     53  64  41  67 /  62  10   0  39
HATTIESBURG   65  74  46  66 /  76  24   3  61
NATCHEZ       53  67  47  67 /  58  11   0  52
GREENVILLE    49  60  40  66 /  78   7   0  20
GREENWOOD     53  62  40  68 /  78   8   0  21

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
113 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>058-065-066-231915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-COVINGTON-JONES-
113 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOME OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A SIGNIFICANT EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A
POWERFUL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LEVELS
OF INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND COMBINE WITH VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS
AND EVEN A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A RAYVILLE TO
HAZLEHURST TO LAUREL LINE HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS OF
60 TO 80 MPH AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST BY 6 PM...THEN STEADILY EVOLVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
EVENING AND PRE DAWN HOURS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A PORT GIBSON
TO GRENADA LINE WILL SEE STORMS BETWEEN 7 AND 11 PM. LOCATIONS EAST
OF THAT LINE WILL HAVE ACTIVITY OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM.
EVERYONE IS URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPDATES AND OUTLOOKS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LAZ023>026-MSZ059>064-072>074-231915-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
113 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A CHANCE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT INTO
THE PRE DAWN HOURS MONDAY. A POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS AND EVEN A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. LOCATIONS WEST OF I-55 WILL SEE ACTIVITY BETWEEN
7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...AREAS EAST OF THAT WILL SEE ACTIVITY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

CME

ARZ075-230455-
CHICOT AR-
1027 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1027 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DERMOTT AT 1027
PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CHICOT COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3357 9135 3352 9131 3352 9126 3356 9125
      3357 9124 3354 9122 3347 9112 3346 9112
      3345 9117 3350 9118 3346 9123 3343 9122
      3337 9145 3352 9146 3357 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 249DEG 41KT 3344 9155

JA