A record breaking day occurred across the Upper Midwest as temperatures soared into the 60s and 70s across southern Minnesota during the afternoon of Saturday, November 10th. Thunderstorms developed across eastern Nebraska late in the day, and moved northeast across southern Minnesota during the evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
A record breaking day occurred across the Upper Midwest as temperatures soared into the 60s and 70s across southern Minnesota during the afternoon of Saturday, November 10th. Thunderstorms developed across eastern Nebraska late in the day, and moved northeast across southern Minnesota during the evening. A powerful low level jet of 65 knots developed ahead of a strong cold front late Saturday evening. This low level jet combined with ample instability to create several lines of thunderstorms across southern Minnesota. One line of thunderstorms moved through the southern and eastern metro area of the Twin Cities, and produced four EF-0 tornadoes, along with damaging straight line winds. One tornado moved through the Burnsville area, the second moved through Eagan, the third occurred near Lilydale, and the fourth hit Mahtomedi and Grant. In addition to the tornadoes, there was a long path of damaging straight line winds that caused numerous large trees to blow down onto houses, cars and other public and private structures. These were the latest Minnesota tornadoes in a calendar year in the Storm Prediction Center database (which began in 1950), although there may have been one later tornado on Nov 16, 1931 (but records of tornadoes were not maintained before 1950).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 10, 8:14 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 814 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 .UPDATE... TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN MN THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT HAS NOT PROGRESSED MUCH FURTHER NORTH SINCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LEAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN ITS TREK NORTHWARD AGAIN ONCE THE CONSOLIDATION OF THOSE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IS COMPLETE. WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH...IF ANY...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LINE OF STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT FROM EXTREME WRN MN SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THE WRF-NMM HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS LINE BUT IT APPEARS A FEW HOURS TOO SLOW. REGARDLESS...IT TAKES THE LINE INTO CENTRAL MN AND SPLITS IT WITH ONE SEGMENT TRACKING INTO WFO DLH AREA...AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS FAR SRN MN. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS SPLIT YET...BUT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HINTING TOWARD SOMETHING SIMILAR...TWEAKED POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WRN MN WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY AND AGAIN OVER WRN WI FOR SUNDAY. HERE...A REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN APPEARS LIKELY AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT STRENGTHENS WITH THE LOW CONSOLIDATION COMPLETE. CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY FLIRT WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WRN MN LATE TONIGHT TO ERN MN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND WRN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY BUT IT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE DRASTIC CHANGE FROM TODAY NONETHELESS. BORGHOFF && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 517 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/ QUITE A TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACRS MN ATTM WITH PARTS OF SC MN REACHING THE MID 70S GRADING TO READINGS STILL BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. SFC LOW HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ITSELF IN SW MN DRNG THE AFTN WITH WRMFNT NOW LIFTING TO OLIVIA TO JUST ABT TO MSP. CLEAR SLOT IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH STRONG MIXING HAS ELEVATED TEMPS TO NEARLY 30 DEGREES ABV NORMAL NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. WAVE OF PCPN WHICH PASSED THRU AREA LAST NITE/THIS MRNG NOW LIFTING OUT OF NE MN. WV SHOWS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE IN E KS/NEB WHICH HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SCT -SHRA IN KS/INTO IA IN THE MOIST PLUME STRETCHING OUT FROM TX INTO IA WHERE PWATS HAVE BEEN 200% OR MORE ABV NORMAL. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG CDFNT FROM NW INTO SE NEB SHUD BEGIN TO DEVELOP A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS. CU FIELD IS BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA. EXPECT THIS AREA TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO S MN...BUT LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED RATHER THAN SURFACE BASED BY THEN. MID LEVELS QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE 1/2 OF CWA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SUPPORT THUNDER WITH APRCH OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MRNG IN WI. DON'T EXPECT MUCH SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT ARRIVING AFTER MOST OF THE QPF HAS ENDED. HIER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE IN EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LIFT FROM UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE HIER PWATS IN MOIST PLUME. NAM CONTINUES A BIT FASTER WITH ADVANCE OF CDFNT PUSHING COLD AIR THRU QUICKER. EXPECT TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO FALL DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST WITH VERY STRONG CAA. MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR COMES THRU OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST SO TEMPS MAY HAVE A BIT OF A RECOVERY THERE. CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF -SN AND -SHSN ON MONDAY AS SECONDARY TROF MOVES THRU. COLD MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NW WINDS...THEN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SMALL CHC OF PCPN NEXT WKND AS GFS/ECMWF CARVE OUT A TROF TO OUR WEST. && .AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ MAIN SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN DEALS WITH CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AS IT TRANSLATES TO THE N/NNE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT TAFS WITH TSRA/MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WINDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME SCENARIO WITH TSRA OR VCTS BEGINNING AT RWF BY 1Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BETWEEN 2-4Z...WHICH COULD BE LONGER DEPENDING UPON IF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS FOR AXN...LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR ABR...AND SFC WARM FRONT SOUTH OF GHW. BELIEVE AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE LOWER CIGS...CIGS SHOULD LIFT SOME ALONG WITH BETTER VSBYS. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF RASN AFT 9Z...WITH SFC WNDS GUSTY DURING THE DAY FROM THE W/WNW. STC IS ALSO NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL WHICH MAY MIX THE LIFR CIGS OUT FOR A FEW HRS...BEFORE CIGS FALL BACK TO IFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF THE TSRA REMAINS CRITICAL IN THE FIRST 6 HRS...WITH MORE PROBLEMS AFT 6Z AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI. AFT 12Z...EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH POSSIBLE VFR CONDS BY 21Z AT RWF. KMSP... MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TIMING OF THE TSRA ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS WITH SHRA ACROSS NC IOWA. SOME OF THE LOCAL MODELS INDICATED THAT THE ACTIVITY IN NC IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N/NE ACROSS EC MN AND PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA AT AIRPORT AS EARLY AS 2-3Z. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VCSH AFT 3Z...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFT 6Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SW OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/WNW BY 12-15Z...AND BECOME GUSTY BY NOON. SOME -RA WILL LINGER THRU NOON...WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ EARLY MONDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FLURRIES. W 10 TO 20 KT. MON/TUE...VFR. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTH. WED...VFR. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. ..JLT.. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && BAP/JLT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 707 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 120115- DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS- BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA- KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON- YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA- REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH- WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK- ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE- 707 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A STRONG FALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CHANGING OVER ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL OCCUR OVER MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING...AND OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A TRACE TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. BORGHOFF
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 35 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:37 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind, 4 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Roof and siding damage occurred at a home in New Prague.
An EF-0 tornado developed northeast of the intersection of County Road 5 and McAndrews Road, and tracked northeast to just southwest of the intersection of Burnsville Parkway and County Road 11. A large area of uprooted trees and power lines occurred along a non-continuous broken path of 2.8 miles in a heavily populated region of Burnsville. The worst damage occurred in a two block area between Knoll Lane and Nicollet Avenue, and Nicollet Jr High School.
A brief EF-0 tornado spun up near Skyline Drive, east of Highway 13, and tracked north-northeast to the Lost Spur Golf Course just south of Interstate 494. The tornado tracked for two blocks in a heavily wooded residential area before moving across a small golf course as it dissipated. Numerous large trees and power lines were blown down along the path of approximately one-half mile.
A storm survey revealed that straight line winds of 65 mph were associated with the rear flank downdraft from the tornado that dissipated at the Lost Spur Golf Course. These severe winds blew shingles off a hotel roof and knocked down trees from near Interstate 494 and Pilot Knob Road, northeast to a business community.
About two dozen trees were downed from Mendota to Lilydale, for about two miles along Highway 13, and on either side of Interstate 35E. The trees were all oriented from southwest to northeast, and there was no concentrated area of damage. The damage was most likely due to rear flank downdraft winds.
A storm survey indicated a large downburst damage swath with numerous downed trees in the northeastern section of Mendota Heights, and the northern portion of West St. Paul. A large part of the damage pattern across northeastern Mendota Heights and West St. Paul was directed toward the east, northeast and north. It was a very standard pattern of downburst winds. Many of the trees landed on homes, cars and garages. Some of the garages were pushed off their foundations. Some of the most significant downburst damage was in a 5-10 block area surrounding Dodd Road, Delaware and Smith Avenue.
A brief EF-0 tornado developed east of Lilydale, just southeast of the intersection of Highway 13 and Wachtler Avenue. It tracked northeast across a subdivision in extreme northern Mendota Heights. Several dozen large trees were blown down onto homes, cars and sheds.
This is a continuation in Ramsey County of the wind damage that hit Mendota Heights and West St. Paul in Dakota County. It tracked northeast across south central St Paul, from Smith and Annapolis to St Paul Holman Field, but damage was more sporadic than when it hit Dakota County. Most of the damage was due to trees landing on cars, houses and sheds.
Measured at St Paul Holman Field.
A few trees were blown down from Mounds Park, then north-northeast to around Johnson Parkway, and Minnehaha Avenue, then northeast to the White Bear Lake area.
Several trees were knocked down or broken along the eastern shore of White Bear Lake. This was most likely from a rear flank downdraft, and was associated with the storm that would soon produce the tornado in Washington County at 2321 CST.
Hundreds of trees were toppled or snapped. Some trees fell on cars, houses and sheds. The tornado touched down in Mahtomedi, just east of the White Bear Lake shore, and it moved northeast into the northeastern part of Grant. The most significant damage was shortly after touchdown, near the intersection of Hazel and Moccasin in far northern Mahtomedi, where strong EF-0 damage was noted.
There were isolated trees, large branches and power lines down from the northeastern corner of Grant into the southern part of May Township near Big Carnelian Lake (about six miles north of Stillwater). The wind also peeled heavy gauge steel off of a barn roof and took the large doors off. The south end up of a farm shop was lifted up a few inches, pushing the west wall out and displacing the roof. Power poles were down as well.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Minnesota, 2012Warnings in Minnesota, November 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 412971, 412632, 412633, 412635, 412634, 412636, 412516, 412629, 412631, 412628, 412928, 412723, 412630.