Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, November 10 to 11, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
THE CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CONVECTION AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR ALL AREAS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE PRESENTLY STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL KS TO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH INCREASED UPPER
SUPPORT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG PV ANOMALY IN THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BECOMING
MORE LINEAR-CONGEALED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...GIVEN BACKING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND INCREASED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE
REPORTS IN CENTRAL KS INTO MID EVENING WITH HAIL/WINDS LIKELY THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY TO 65-70
KT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING...WITH STILL
FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850 LAPSE RATES. SO PLANNING TO EXTEND WIND
ADVISORY IN A LARGE PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS TIL 06Z
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING AN EARLY MORNING SUNDAY
HIGH.

MONDAY-THURSDAY:
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN THE WEEK A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...BEFORE RECOVERING TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST WITH GULF CUT OFF DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MODEST GULF
MOISTURE RETURN. WILL CARRY 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THIS WAVE COULD
CHANGE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE.

JMC

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL MAINTAIN RED FLAG WARNING AREAL EXTENT UNTIL 01Z THIS
EVENING...GIVEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING FREQUENTLY OVER 40
MPH AND CURED GRASSLAND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RUNNING ABOUT 40% IN THE
WARNED AREA...AND 45-55% FURTHER EAST. THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN
VERY HIGH THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...BUT
THEN DROP OFF LATER TONIGHT.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

A CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST WITH THE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25KTS
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD AT MOST SITES IN ADDITION TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS TO AT LEAST 6Z DUE TO
CONTINUED MIXING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KRSL AT ~5Z
AND CLOSER TO ~11Z FOR KHUT AND KICT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT QUESTIONING TSRA FOR
KRSL AND KSLN...THUS LEFT AS VCTS FOR NOW. GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA FOR KHUT AND KICT AT 2Z AND 3Z RESPECTIVELY...BUT THERE COULD
BE A LAG IN TIMING WHERE IT MAY BE CLOSER TO 6Z. KCNU COULD HAVE
SOME -TSRA AFTER 6Z WITH LINGERING SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW BOLTS
OF TS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE MORNING. OPTED TO PUT IN A
SIMILAR SITUATION FOR KICT WITHOUT AS SIGNIFICANT OF A CIG
REDUCTION AS KCNU WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. KCNU COULD HAVE
LOWER CIGS THAN CURRENT FORECAST BUT DECIDED TO KEEP AT THE MVFR
AND IFR THRESHOLD. THE NEXT FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO FINE
TUNE THE TIMING OF TSRA BETTER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXPECT AMENDMENTS WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  44  23  52 /  70  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      36  41  22  52 /  60  10   0   0
NEWTON          40  42  22  51 /  70  30   0   0
ELDORADO        44  45  22  51 /  80  70  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  49  25  53 /  80  60  10   0
RUSSELL         30  40  18  52 /  60  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  41  20  52 /  60  10   0   0
SALINA          35  40  22  51 /  70  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       36  40  21  52 /  70  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  59  27  52 /  70  90  10  10
CHANUTE         56  57  26  51 /  80  90  10  10
IOLA            56  57  26  51 /  70  90  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  58  25  52 /  70  90  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ049>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-082-091.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
403 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-112215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
403 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...WEST OF A HILLSBORO
TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER
TO THE WIND ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH CATEGORY AREA
WIDE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNING FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO THE WEST OF A
HILLSBORO TO WICHITA...TO WELLINGTON LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

KSZ047-110000-
BARTON-
508 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON COUNTY...

AT 505 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 29 MILES WEST OF BELPRE...OR 31 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LARNED...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORM MAINTAINS
INTENSITY AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE
WEATHER THREATENS.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 9904 3868 9904 3869 9903 3831 9863
      3826 9876 3825 9898 3827 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 221DEG 51KT 3804 9959

MCGUIRE