An upper jet moving through the southern Rockies helped to create strong surface pressure falls across northeast Colorado. The strength of the surface pressure falls, the resultant gradient and depth of superadiabatic mixed layer produced strong southwest surface winds.
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The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
An upper jet moving through the southern Rockies helped to create strong surface pressure falls across northeast Colorado. The strength of the surface pressure falls, the resultant gradient and depth of superadiabatic mixed layer produced strong southwest surface winds.
Deep shear became impressive and with a moistening airmass thunderstorms quickly developed and became briefly supercellular before creating a broken line segments into central Kansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 10, 6:07 AM CST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 607 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EVOLVING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE 00 UTC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO HE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG DIFLUENT PATTERN WAS FOUND JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH A 100 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE COLORADO PLATEAU. A COOL AND CLOUDY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW SINGLE DIGIT 850MB LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSION WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE REGION WAS EXPERIENCING EXPANDING FOG AND LOW (SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET BASED) STRATUS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A DRIER AND MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WAS FOUND IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH, WHERE A 30 TO 40 KNOT JET WAS OBSERVED BY REGIONAL RADIOSONDE OBS, AND TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB OF AROUND 20 DEGREES C FROM DODGE CITY TO LUBBOCK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, EVIDENCED BY RECENT SURFACE WIND ADJUSTMENTS TO SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BEING NEAR STEADY TO ONLY SLOWLY FALLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SIMILAR TO THE MILD RAPID REFRESH SOLUTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL LEND ITSELF TO HELPING CREATE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN AS OF 4 A.M. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS, THE RESULTANT GRADIENT AND DEPTH OF SUPER ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER SHOULD ALL PLAY ROLE IN HOW STRONG SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BECOME LATER TODAY. GIVEN IT IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM, WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT, ALONE SUGGESTS STRONGER THAN TYPICAL WINDS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MODEL AND MOS SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MOS WOULD SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT, WHICH THE RAW MODELS THEMSELVES (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DON'T COME CLOSE TO. THE NAM MOS INDICATES SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 35 KNOT HIGH WIND CRITERIA, BUT NOT EQUAL OR EXCEEDING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG MEAN LAYER WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS, BUT AS THE LAYER MIXES IN THE LATER MORNING, MOMENTUM TRANSFER ESTIMATIONS SUGGEST GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS AT MOST. FOR THESE REASONS, WE ARE REASONABLY COMFORTABLE MAINTAINING THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY, AND FORECASTING HIGH END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BECOME INFLUENCED BY TWO SEPARATE AIRMASS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, EXTENDING NORTHWARD THE NORTHER CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. SINGLE DIGIT 700 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A WARM, RELATIVELY MOIST SURFACE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO VERIFY THE WEAK TO MARGINALLY MODERATE MODEL CAPE FORECAST. DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ROTATE BECOMING BRIEFLY SUPER CELLULAR BEFORE CREATING A BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. EACH OF THE NAM/WRF ARW AND NMM MODEL CORES DEVELOPS A SIMILAR SOLUTION. SMALL HAIL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE THE MORE LIKELY THREATS. MUCH COLDER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A WEDGE OF DRY AIR DESCENDING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN COLDER BY SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI DURING THE DAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME VIRGA SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES BUT THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND BECOME WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN SPITE OF WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FEW MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THEM. LATE IN THE WEEK THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER TROUGH ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD WEAKENING THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHAT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 606 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. LOOK FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45-50 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND GARDEN CITY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 80 31 43 21 / 30 10 0 0 GCK 78 28 40 19 / 10 10 0 0 EHA 75 28 41 21 / 10 10 10 10 LBL 79 30 42 20 / 20 10 10 10 HYS 78 30 41 19 / 40 10 0 0 P28 78 40 48 23 / 60 40 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066- 074>081-084>090. && SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL SHORT TERM...RUSSELL LONG TERM...GERARD AVIATION...GERARD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 705 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>077-084>086-111315- TREGO-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-STANTON- GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD- 705 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 /605 AM MST SAT NOV 10 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE LINE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC KSZ031-046-065-066-078>081-087>090-111315- ELLIS-RUSH-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-MEADE-CLARK- COMANCHE-BARBER- 705 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...EAST OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE LINE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL, 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC RUSSELL
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust to 58 MPH was recorded at the Syracuse airport at 1045 AM.
A wind gust to 63 MPH was recorded at the Syracuse airport at 1115 AM.
A wind gust to 71 MPH was recorded at a location near Kendall at 1208 PM.
A wind gust to 62 MPH was recorded at the Ulysses airport at 110 PM.
A wind gust to 58 MPH was recorded at the Scott City airport at 140 PM.
A wind gust to 58 MPH was recorded at the Garden City airport at 136 PM.
A wind gust to 62 MPH was recorded at the Kansas Water office located at 37.437N and 100.97W at 115 PM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, November 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 422722, 422723, 422726, 422728, 422730, 422732, 422733.