High Wind in Indiana, October 29 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THIS MORNING...HIGHEST IN
THE 9-15Z TIMEFRAME...GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTENING OF LOW
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD IN ADVANCE OF HISTORIC (NOW ~960 MB) SFC LOW
TRACKING WEST INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CYCLONE FILLS.

DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE WILL BACK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EAST THIS MORNING AS STRONG FORCING ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
"SANDY" ROTATES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION AND MVFR
CIGS TO REACH FWA AROUND 9-11Z AND SBN AROUND 12-13Z...WITH TIMING
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS. THIS DRY
AIRMASS DOES BRING INTO QUESTION PTYPE INITIALLY THIS MORNING. IT
NOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT FWA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY RAIN ANTICIPATED AT SBN GIVEN WEAKENING
DYNAMIC COOLING/FORCING WITH WWD PROGRESSION, AND LAKE BOUNDARY
LAYER MODIFICATION. FORCING ALOFT WANES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO LINGER GIVEN
CYCLONIC FLOW, LAKE ENHANCEMENT, AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
LOW END MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012/

UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS INTENSE
945MB LOW COMES ONSHORE OVER NEW JERSEY. BAND OF MODERATE RAIN OVER
NORTHERN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP FRONTOGENESIS IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE JET EXITS TO THE NORTH. PRECIP
IS ALSO FIGHTING SOME VERY DRY AIR...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS IN NW OHIO...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK THE START TIME A BIT.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY HELP US DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY
LATE TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET
OF THE EVENT WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX IN AS WELL. THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF
THOUGH WITH A LIMITED WINDOW FOR FROZEN PRECIP BETWEEN THE TIME
SATURATION FINALLY OCCURS AND DIURNAL HEATING SETS IN DURING THE
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO RAMP UP WITH LIMITED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY PREVENTING EFFECTIVE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.
STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS THOUGH AS THE
PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME WHEN
THE GRADIENT IS MAXIMIZED AND BEFORE PRECIP FURTHER WEAKENS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALREADY SEEING HIGHER WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THANKS TO REDUCED FRICTION AND WARM WATER PROMOTING
DEEPER MIXING. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES THERE EITHER WITH GUSTS TO
60 MPH STILL LIKELY...ALBEIT PROBABLY LIMITED TO AREAS CLOSE TO
THE SHORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO INFLUENCE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT LAPORTE AND BERRIEN
COUNTY WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A HIGH WIND
WARNING OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST
AND INTENSE SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE MET IN MANY LOCATIONS IN AT LEAST THE
PREVAILING CRITERIA OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS
INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH EVEN SOME 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WEAKENING AREA OF SFC
PRESSURE FALLS MOVING IN FROM WESTERN PA MAY ALSO ENHANCE
NORTH-WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT HAVE UPGRADED LAPORTE
AND BERRIEN COUNTIES TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WHERE ENHANCED FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY VERY
WELL SUPPORT GUSTS TO 60 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. OF HEIGHTENED CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT...WILL BE
THE 6 TO 12 HOUR DURATION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WHICH COULD POSE EXTRA STRESS ON TREE
LIMBS/POWER LINES.

OTHERWISE...A SHARP WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA AND EASTERN
OHIO. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NORTH
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE -RW POPS
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
MORE POTENT UPPER VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE VERY MARGINAL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR INITIALLY SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN A PERIOD OF MAINLY -SN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. FAVORED COOL NIGHTTIME DIURNAL TIMING MAY
SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING NOT DEVIATING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN
EXPECTATION OF GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MAINLY NWRN OHIO.
SFC/NEAR SFC WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING MID TO LATE
MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL/LIKELY RAIN POPS MOST AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TUESDAY EVENING
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT RAIN AND NO
CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT WILL BE POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
REGION INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING A NORTH TO NW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST FROM BOTH THESE WAVES AS WELL AS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. PREV GRIDS OVERALL WERE IN DECENT SHAPE SO OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES NO SIG
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN STARTING FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND AT LEAST SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS WITH TROUGH ON
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH MAIN EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS VARYING
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH GFS/GEFS REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
WITH SFC LOW PASSING OVER LWR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A CUT-OFF...NEGATIVELY TILTED SETUP
WITH SFC LOW TRACKING TO NORTHERN INDIANA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A
LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC PATTERN OF LATE WITH
NUMEROUS CUT OFF SYSTEMS...TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION.
ALLBLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS CHC POPS SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WHICH
IS REASONABLE AND LEFT AS IS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR INZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR INZ003.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>081.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
UPDATE...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
215 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-301815-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
215 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 /115 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND GUST REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-MIZ077-301815-
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
215 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 /115 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 AM EDT TUESDAY..WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THEREAFTER.

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WIND GUST REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-301815-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
215 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...INCREASING TO STORM FORCE
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX